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Daily Thread Wednesday July 20

Discussion in 'Horse Racing' started by ROTO, Jul 20, 2011.

  1. ROTO

    ROTO Well-Known Member

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    8.15 Sandown

    Rock Anthem 25/1


    Quite like the look of Mike Murphy’s 7 year gelding in what looks a very open contest. Although he has only won off a mark as high as 72 (effectively 69 with claimers), both these efforts were over C+D in which he is 2-2 in that sphere which just emphasises how much he loves it around here (1st of these was as a result of winner getting disqualified as a result of weighing in wrong). Rock Anthem’s last win over C+D came 3 starts back in September where he was given an absolutely fantastic ride by Russ Kenemore. He was waited with for a long time at the back of the field and Kennemore pushed the button inside 2 furlongs to go and Rock Anthem proceeded to blast through the field to get up in the last 100 yards to win by 0.75L to Beaumont’s Party. The effort was visually very impressive as he met a couple of momentum sapping spots on his way to victory. I believe there was still a lot of horse left under Kennemore at the end of the race. The 2nd in that race has subsequently come out and won twice off a mark of 75 (was 74 that day) and has finished a very respectable 4th off 83 LTO. A couple of others that day who were behind have come out to win off similar marks.

    Rock Anthem’s first C+D win came as a 5 year old when he was actually a 1L 2nd behind Desert Kiss. Rock Anthem was flying home that day but just couldn’t get to the front. Desert Kiss was rated 80 that day so considering he weighed in light its fair to say he was a couple of lbs lighter than that. Desert Kiss was a 4 year old at the time and he has subsequently gone on to win off marks of 85 and 89. The declared 2nd that day Poyle Meg, who raced off 77 that day and finished 1.75L behind Rock Anthem, has subsequently won off a mark of 80 on the AW. The 3rd has come out and won off a 1lb lower mark. I think the C+D races demonstrate that he has beaten some decent fields and, at the price, he is definitely worth having a wager on him to find more improvement.

    Rock Anthem’s last two starts were both on the AW – one last September and a reappearance run less than 2 weeks ago. His AW start in September could have come too quickly after the win and his reappearance run at Kempton, where he utilised the extremely strange front running tactics, I think was a clear attempt to get him fit for tomorrows contest. Mike Murphy always seems to get his horses to improve, and I hope that Rock Anthem is no exception. I think he has shown enough in his 2 victories over C+D to demonstrate that he can win off a mark of 77. Back on the track where Rock Anthem does his best work and under the capable hands of Martin Lane, I am hoping the traditional hold up tactics are employed. Although he will have to produce a career best effort to land this, I think the current price of 25/1 makes him extremely overpriced. Mike Murphy is in good form at the moment with Lutine Bell and Bennandonner posted 2 excellent 2nds recently. Although effectively 8lb higher than his 2 best wins, the recent spin at Kempton, my knowledge of Murphy’s ability to get constant improvement from his horses and the return to his favourite track lead me to believe that Rock Anthem has a very live chance to win this.
     
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  2. ROTO

    ROTO Well-Known Member

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    6.35 Sandown

    Mitie Mouse 6/1

    I like the look of this Mike Murphy trained Mitie Mouse quite a bit tomorrow. This 2 year old was a winner on debut on the AW at Kempton over 5f last month, where he turned over the odds on shot Excavator by a neck. This was a very encouraging debut effort, and one which he should definitely improve for. The form of that race has worked out quite nicely as well. The 2nd Excavator has come out and disappointed as an odds on shot once again and finished 2nd, while Lupo D’oro, who finished 3rd 1.5L behind Mitie Mouse, has subsequently come out and finished a very good 1L 2nd to Roger Sez – who has his last 2 starts rather impressively. Behind Lupo D’oro that day was Dark Ages who finished 4.5L behind and who meets Mitie Mouse for the first time today. The 5th in Mitie Mouse’s debut run Netley Marsh has come out and won since also.

    LTO and on his 2nd career start Mitie Mouse was stepped up to Listed Class in the shape of the Windsor Stakes at Royal Ascot. Although he probably never had a chance to begin with, Mitie Mouse had the worst draw in the race in stall 1 and as a result he wasted too much energy trying to track across to the better ground on the opposite side of the track. That said, he still ran a relatively decent race at Listed Class for 3f before dropping away tamely to finish last (although he was not given a hard time of it). The race tomorrow looks very winnable with only 2 of 7 declared runners posting a win to date. The excellent Neil Callan takes the ride again tomorrow having ridden him the first two starts. Although he has only had 1 start to date on the turf, I believe Mitie Mouse has every chance of taking to it quite nicely. I fully believe Mitie Mouse has the ability to take this tomorrow and would love a decent price tomorrow. However, I wouldn’t advise anyone to back him if he is only 7/2 or shorter.
     
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  3. ROTO

    ROTO Well-Known Member

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    7.20 Leicester

    Il Pazzo 66/1


    Right this is about as tentative selection as you can possibly get. I would recommend minimal stakes for anyone who bothers to follow this. This is Il Pazzo’s 2nd start for, you guessed it, Mike Murphy. On his debut he was extremely green and was running all over the place. He showed virtually nothing in that race and was tailed off by the end. It is clear he will improve for that run, but its going to have to be alot for him to make the frame! There are 2 reasons why I am backing him: firstly he is relatively decently bred and secondly because of the fact I am a huge fan of Murphy! His half sister was a decent 7f winner at 2 and has another few decent horses in the family. He’ll have to improve out of all recognition and if this wasn’t a Murphy horse I wouldn’t be backing it but if hes 66s I am willing to spend a quid or 2

    8.05 Naas

    Teos Sister 9/4


    I think 9/4 is an absolutely massive price for this full sister to the fantastic Teofilo. Teofilo is probably won of the best horses Jim Bolger has ever trained, as he went unbeaten as 2 year old in what were her 5 and only career starts, including the Dewhurst. He was ante post favourite for both the Derby and 2,000 Guineas before injury forced him to retire. Teos Sister is 100% Bolger's baby in the yard, as he has trained the Dam and Grand Dam as well as Teofilio. She made her debut in Leopardstown recently as was an extremely impressive 1.75L winner, with Shiraminya in 2nd. Shiraminya subsequently won on virtually the bridle by 1.25L after this. Teos Sister is fantastically bred, looked extremely impressive and I will be having a very very large bet as Bolger will be gutted if she doesnt win this .
     
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  4. NassauBoard

    NassauBoard Well-Known Member

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    Catterick

    2.10 - Valley Of Hope - An interesting maiden in which Drummoyne is the current favourite, he is a typical Mark Johnston type and he probably will make a brave front running effort on a track that should suit him. I think that we have an interesting runner against him in Valley Of Hope of Middleham Park Racing. This filly impressed me last time out, despite finishing a full 7 lengths behind the winner. She ran with more promise than the result showed and she should be capable of more in this race. 1pt win 7/1 BOG

    2.40 - A seller and a no bet race for me, its too tough to judge the form and I wouldn't be surprised to see one of them punted against the jolly.

    3.10 - Devlin - A very tough nursery but I think Devlin is better than his last couple of runs and this step up in trip for its handicap debut is very interesting. He was eyecatching on his debut behind Hamza and Stonefield Flyer and I noted him down as one for nurseries when he was tailed off on his second start before being given a tender enough ride last time. He is 8/1 which to me is a great price for this race. 1pt win 8/1 BOG

    Leicester

    7.20 - Daring Damsel - A tricky maiden but I think Daring Damsel is overpriced against this field. She made an encouraging debut finishing 4th in a Beverley maiden over this trip. She ran well but I feel she needed the experience and was a shade unlucky not to finish closer to the winner. At 14/1 she looks a fine EW bet. 0.5pt EW 14/1 BOG

    Lingfield

    2.30 - A tough maiden and I don't fancy anything in it. The one to watch is probably Zamarelle who comes from a yard that like to bring them along slowly.

    Sandown

    6.35 - Mitie Mouse - A tricky little nursery which doesn't have much depth, Gin Twist probably sets the standard but she keeps finding one too good in nursery company and probably will find at least one too good here again. Mitie Mouse is the most interesting for me, having been outclassed in the Windsor Castle last time out. He won nicely on debut beating the fair sort Excavator in the process, and on that form I think this handicap mark is more than feasible. He has to prove last time out was a blip, but he is very unexposed and I still think he could be a few pounds better than this mark. 1pt win 6/1 BOG

    7.10 - Nant Saeson - 1pt win 5/1 BOG

    The most interesting race of the day in which we see El Greco make his debut for the Stoute yard. This colt is beautifully bred for staying races, and its no surprise to see him holding a Derby entry at this point, but the worry has to be that this trip may be too sharp for him on debut.
    Greek War of Godolphin is another interesting runner, being out of a Group 3 winning mare and being a half brother to the useful Signs In The Sand. He has both speed and stamina in his pedigree and I think he could be a very good horse.
    Lion Rock is another Godolphin runner and is another that could prove to be a very good prospect, he is half brother to a Group 1 placed colt and whilst he looks second string on jockey bookings we have seen a good few of their second 'jocks' win maidens in recent weeks.
    Mr Maynard is another interesting runner although he looks the second string for the Stoute yard, he is related to a whole host of winners and he should prove more than useful for the yard. I think he has to be watched with interest here.
    John Gosden runs Fallen For You who is very nicely bred and is related to a host of black type horses. She is bred to be useful over this trip and I wouldn't be surprised to see her run a big race against the colts.
    Nant Saeson sets the standard here and therefore could be the bet against this field of inexperienced horses, he has the form in the book and it was at this course too. He looked in need of the run and he was reported to have jumped awkwardly. I think he sets a very fair standard and whilst a good few of these could be good long term prospects I think he is the one for the day.
     
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  5. NassauBoard

    NassauBoard Well-Known Member

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    May I point the readers to the last run by "The Real Article" and tell me that Irish racing should have thrown the book at them.
     
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  6. Cyclonic

    Cyclonic Well Hung Member

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    Catterick. 14:10. This an interesting race with what looks like lots of pace on offer. Drummoyne likes to get out and go hard, but being drawn out wide, he is going to have to use some fuel. If he can cross, he'll take some beating. But he compounded after laeding last start, to be beaten 5L. I'll stick with him though. Stormy Whatever has the one slot and might sit on the leaders.

    Catterick 14:10 Drummoyne.

    The Class 4 3yo at 15:40 looks like a nice race for Foxy Music. The horse hardly has a great record, having won just 3 from 38, but has heaps of toe, so hopefully the old bloke will run a nice race at an EW price. He has to carry the grandstand, so he might drift a little in the market.

    Catterick 15:40 Foxy Music EW. "Nap."
     
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  7. heisenburg

    heisenburg Well-Known Member

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    morning all, off to catterick with Dapper, will text when i get there and let you know how she is and what we think, if i pick any thing else up track side will let GDC or Wayard know via text as they both arnt going coz its raining !!!!!!!!!
     
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  8. ROTO

    ROTO Well-Known Member

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    Its a disgrace.

    'Afterwards the stewards called an inquiry into the ride on the The Real Article. O'Grady said that the horse ran above expectations and his rider Paddy Mangan's instructions were to push him out hard but notto hit him. These instructions were confirmed by the jockey and the stewards accepted this.'

    Not to mention that the handicapper raised him 18 lbs but as he didn't win that race he races in the Galway Hurdle without a penalty
     
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  9. ROTO

    ROTO Well-Known Member

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    Good luck guys!
     
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  10. THEMANINBLACK

    THEMANINBLACK Member

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    GOOD LUCK TO YOU ALL,AND ENJOY HASSLEBURG.

    Could i suggest you to venture a few pennies on TIGHT LIPPED.
     
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  11. GDC

    GDC Active Member

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    Danboro: Good luck with Dappers today mate, hope she enjoys the soft!!
     
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  12. Deleted 1

    Deleted 1 Well-Known Member
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    I've decided to invest the remaining pennies in my betting account in a selling stakes at leicester - it must make sense. Crown Ridge (6-45 Leicester) finished 2nd last time out and I think it looks like it can improve so I've backed it at 3's
     
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  13. Ron

    Ron Well-Known Member
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    First of all Good Luck at Catterick with Dapper. She didn't seem to like the sloppy going last time so she might not appreciate soft today. Hope she goes well.

    Valley Of Hope in the 14.10 there

    Pearl Blue (nap) 6.15 Leicester
     
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  14. beeforsalmon

    beeforsalmon Well-Known Member

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    Morning all.

    One from me today.

    Naas 20.05 Interesting race with Teo's Sister looking to further her already lofty reputation. She appears a worthy favourite at around 2-1. However I'll be opposing her with John Oxx's inmate Cocozza. Unlucky to be beaten in his first run, will relish the trip and is very, very well regarded at home. Expect this one to lead Teo's Sister home.

    Nap Naas 20.05 Cocozza 5-2 BOG
     
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  15. NassauBoard

    NassauBoard Well-Known Member

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    Good luck Danbo.


    Today all I will say is "Order Order" never has politics appealed to so many.
     
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  16. heisenburg

    heisenburg Well-Known Member

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    many thanks to you all, me and the don will be there in the rain, we arnt hopeful, in fact we have a horse box on stand by to take her to Chris's farm and rest her for a month or so if she does not run well, Dave Omeara says she is not devoid of talent and is going well at home just has not had the penny drop yet
    not sure about the going, but have had a small bit on her at 33s
    i will text from trackside if i get any more about her and any other of daves runners
    Stay Frosty

    (and dry)
     
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  17. Dexter

    Dexter Well-Known Member

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    Nass and Roto,the ride Mangan gave the horse was abject and reeked of something that definately needed to be uncovered.There had to be a reason why the horse was ridden in that fashion and the O'Grady explantion post race was woefully inadequate.

    Alanza,who runs tonight in the listed event at Nass,was given an even more inexplicable ride by JM at Leopardstown on the 30th of June.Again no explanation was requested by the stewards on course.

    Perhaps heavyweight icons of the turf such as messrs Oxx and O'Grady are above inquesition.

    Anyhow,I'm going to give Alanza the chance to show her true ability tonight in the 7.30 at Nass.She won her maiden in impressive fashion last backend and was touted as a classic filly before encountering a setback.
    Her return run,however controversial,was full of promise and whilst tonights trip is a minimum,i expect her to win before tackling Group company.She is well entered up and the 11/4 currently available could be value.

    GL all.
     
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  18. Dexter

    Dexter Well-Known Member

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    Good luck to the lads heading to Catterick...hopfully she runs well..
     
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  19. degs74

    degs74 Member

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    NAP today is
    2.40 Catterick Fortune Star

    go with rest of win lucky31 today
    2.30 Lingfield Stateos
    3.50 Worcester Won More Night
    7.10 Sandown El Greco
    9.00 Leicester Sennockian Storm
     
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  20. GDC

    GDC Active Member

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    Well unusually for me I am going in today for a couple of bets:

    6 Doubles, 4 EW trebles, EW acca:

    340 Catt: Your Gifted if not too tired from travels to Ireland should win this easily.
    500 Ling: Escape To Glory has proved good enough to win a HCap on debut.
    710 Sand: Fallen For You from the Gosden yard could be another nice debut winner, have taken the 6s as they like a winner here.
    815Sand: Stand To Reason may be good enough but i aslo like the Beckett runner.

    Trixie and EW treble:

    710 Sand: Fallen For You as above!
    815 Sand: Rocky Rebel at 14s is far too big, not been beaten far in any races to date.
    850 Sand: Arab League wont mind the rain and has won over the extreme distance.

    Finally in the 210 Catterick Dandy has 2 newcomers, the ones to have run do not look very good so The Highwayman could just about take this with Indego Blues but have had a saver on his Point At Issue.

    Be Lucky all <ok>
     
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