First of my 10 to follow runs today, Parlour Games. I actually put him up as a hurdler so it is interesting to see him going novice chasing, and he looks well in at the weights today if his jumping is up to scratch. 6/5 is a bit skinny though.
If it's good ground Deauville won't reverse form, Deauville will need cut to beat that horse today. He won going away on bottomless ground in his maiden. Galileo had no trouble on it and neither will this fella, O'Brien trying to keep Foundation in the race, clever man. Foundation will be pulled with any rain Gosden has said so he's not running today then surely.
Got a bit of time this morning, so with the rain pattering away at my window, lets have a look through the card at Cheltenham today. The rain is the obvious concern, and it may blow the ground and therefore the chances for many of the runners today. Currently it is good ground, but there is a lot of rain about and therefore throughout this preview you might read two different selections depending on the ground. The first race looks a real burn up, we have Next Sensation, Dunraven Storm, Boondooma, Sew On Target who all like to go from the front, and then we have another handful who race prominently. This may cause a pace collapse, which would suit hold up horses like Eastlake and Workbench. Workbench is a spring ground horse for me, and whilst Eastlake has good form on heavy going, I also think he prefers it with good in the going, and out of the two I think he is probably the one to be with. The 4 year old race to me looks to revolve around Hargam, a horse I think is potentially a class above this field, and the way he travelled in his races last year suggested that he might be an even better horse after a summer to strengthen up. It is interesting that Nicky Henderson runs him rather than Top Notch (who was entered up) in this race, and if the rain doesn't dramatically change the ground, I think he is one to be with. Devilment has 10 lengths to make up on him on the Triumph running, and I actually think todays race will be run to suit Hargam more than the Triumph was. If it goes really soft, I doubt he will be risked, and then we might see a winning british debut for the Skelton French import. The next handicap was won by Roalco De Farges last season, and I actually managed to back him, so I am struggling to desert him today. However, he is 4lbs higher in the handicap, and also a year older, and I think time may catch up with him this season. The grey horse might be vulnerable, and the one I really like is the Emma Lavelle trained Fox Appeal. He ran a belter at Ascot last season off 2lbs lower than this, and now the Lavelle yard is in great form, and this horse has always been held in high regard. The next race looks a nightmare, and if the ground is soft by then, we might see a big upset. The form of the market principles is all on faster ground, and doubts have to be raised about their ability to run on other goings. It will be interesting to see these horses in the parade ring. The novice chase looks really interesting, and we have a Paul Nicholls runner trying to give weight away to some useful sorts, Parlour Games being the obvious standout of those in opposition. He was top class over hurdles, and if he takes to chasing, he may be the one horse who could raise towards the top of the market for the JLT at the festival. He is a flat bred horse (by Monsun like yesterdays impressive Penglai Pavilion) who might not have the scope of some of his rivals. I am intrigued to see these in the parade ring, and the one I am really looking forward to seeing is Long House Hall who was very impressive last time out and we have seen him jumping fences with aplomb. Odds on for Parlour Games could look massive later in the day! The handicap hurdle looks very trappy, with horses returning from chasing and others starting out for the season. Dancing Meadows got a negative mention this morning by Gordon Elliot, and at 5/1 looks a bit short in the market, whilst Face Value is another who has travelled over from Ireland. He is struggling to win at present though, and would need to improve to win this race. He should be race fit today, and that might be a massive advantage. The one I like at a price is Here's Herbie, who is on a low mark and has run a couple of decent races at Cheltenham in the past when midfield in competitive handicaps. He is dropping down the handicap, and I think the handicapper may have given him a great chance here. Then we have a bumper..... I thought the flat season was almost over!!
I like the Honeyball one in the bumper Nass. As I have Parlour Games in my 10 to follow I would appreciate a thorough debrief later
FOX APPEAL huh Nass...another bet I have to cash out. I did a bumper preview but then couldnt be arsed to type it up on here. I think the jolly is a wheelbarrow job as that form with OH Corral is pretty near as good as it gets in these events!
No problem, I know you aren't a tweeter but I might get chance to put a picture up from parade ring if it's not too wet!! Sure someone can post it on here for you. I'm tempted by the Pipe horse in the last but we will see
Says more about how bad your selections are if they match mine, Couldn't believe the price for Penglais Pavilion yesterday. 11/4. Far too big against mules!
Anyone got the trainers quotes from the RP on Sew On Target and Eastlake? I'm too tight to pay for their service these days.
Been looking at that 4 yo hurdle a fair bit and whilst HARGAM at 9/4 last night looked a fair price I can't help but think he could have a bit of a rancid attitude about him a la MTOY. There's every chance he'll spit the dummy out up the hill especially if they get decent rainfall. Will be interesting to see, I liked him last year, just hope he isn't another bottler. KAREZAK for me in it.
If the weather forecast is reasonably accurate, the rain will hit both Newbury and Doncaster this afternoon, so given that both are already Good to Soft, any selections may need to have feet like dinner plates because the ground is going to be slow and with the top loosened by rain. Cannot summon up any enthusiasm for the disappointing Romsdal in the St Simon Stakes (Newbury 2:25) despite him having nearly a stone in hand on ratings. Once the rain has fallen, the Radley Stakes (Newbury 3:35) will just be a watching brief as Light Music won a maiden on Good to Soft last time whilst Alamode was second in a Group 3 on similar ground and neither makes much appeal at the available odds. If Foundation defects from the Racing Post Trophy (Doncaster 3:45), it will probably be an Aidan O’Brien benefit that will be forgotten by the end of British Summertime. As I vary rarely bet on slow old plodders jumping obstacles, do not shoot the messenger here but I have been given a tip for Hargam in the Cheltenham 2:45, which appears to be the favourite and has already been tipped by several folks although no word from the Henderson County Set following yet...
Karezak for me as well. He has an 11lb pull for a couple of lengths beating by the jolly here last year and has had the benefit of a recent run. At 6/1 He rates a reasonable bet to overcome his tendency to find one too good. Also a little ew lucky 31 with the aforementioned and Henry Oliver's Desert Recluse and the lovely Rebecca's Audacious Plan at Cheltenham together with mud lover Dungannon and Hugo Palmer's Mengli Khan at wet and windy Donny. I haven't backed it but it would be marvellous if Clive Brittain's final runner, Acclio were to prevail at Newbury. Apparently the ol boy won't be there as he will be at home looking after his poorly wife. Some career he has had. Finally not horse racing based but would like to mention the passing of a young lass from Manchester, Kirsty Howard. This lass was born with a back to front heart and given only 4 years to live. She managed to get to 20 and fitted a fair bit in including raising 7.5 million quid for her local children's hospice. RIP. Good luck all.
I have the same concerns mate- travels lovely but if anything can keep pace with him then I'd fancy their chances up the hill. He ran a good race though when 3rd in the Triumph in conditions that may not have suited. Ground better today barring rainfall- anyone know how the weather is down there today? I'll take Qualando 14/1 e/w in it- mugs don't win the Fred Winter and he wouldn't the first Paul Nicholls runner to be below par at Punchestown. He is lightly raced and might be the type to kick on and develop. Course form as we know very useful around here. Having said that- will he run on the new or old course today?
15:20 Cheltenham - Silver Man (My Saturday flutter at the 11/1 generally available. Consistent type, dunno whether he'll like the track, and also in a first-time visor. Excellent jockey).
Chelts 2.45 Hargam win 9/4.Classiest horse in the line up and should do well this season. 4.30 Long House Hall 9/4.Very impressed with last run and can reel in Parlour Games up the famous Hill.Singles/Double 5.05- Dancing Meadows 6/1.Gordon Elliot stable hasn't been in great form of late but this lad will like trip/ground and looks to be off a nice mark making handicapp debut. Leopardstown 2.55 Zanada win 2/1.C&D winner for trainer with terrific strike rate in this race. 4.05 Hagen H'Ghar- 2yr old Nursery are always tricky but this lad won well enough lto to suggest he can take this.Singles/Double Wexford 3.15-Afram Blue win 9/2.Stable are hopeful of a decent run here after getting done on the nose at Fairyhouse a couple of weeks back.
Dunraven storm for me in the opener at Cheltenham. He has a bit of class about him winning a grade 2 here last year. Had a pipe opener and looks overpriced currently.
1/4 shot pulls up and 50/1 shot wins there at Wexford-oh what to be a bookie. Worried the ground might go against Hargam now
