You raise a lot of valid points Nass, but the very short history of the Champions Stakes at Ascot has not thrown up any evidence of a draw bias: 2011 Cirrus des Aigles drawn 1 of 12 beat So You Think drawn 9 - SYT broke well and was just ahead of CDA into the first turn, the draw did nothing to hinder SYT 2012 Frankel drawn 3 of 6 beat CDA drawn 1 - arguably CDA only got so close due to the ground, certainly no draw effect as Frankel completely missed the break, which defined the race 2013 Farhh drawn 5 of 10 beat CDA drawn 3 - both horses broke well and CDA tracked Farhh throughout but couldn't get past - no draw effect. 2014 Noble Mission drawn 5 of 9 beat Al Kazeem drawn 8. Both CDA and AK broke well from their high draws and were right there with NM coming into the first turn Being drawn 12 of 13 should be absolutely no problem for Jack Hobbs. Given he is a proven 12F horse I would suggest Buick needs to break well and be up with the pace coming into the first bend, and thereafter make it a true test of stamina.
The draw over a mile and a quarter is actually very important at Ascot, as the start of the race is just before Swinley bottom, so there is no opportunity to get your horse into a good position before the bend. Golden Horn may have overcome his bad draw in the Arc, but that doesn't mean we now should dismiss the draw in every other race, just because on 1 occasion a horse overcame a bad draw. Jack Hobbs should still have enough class to win on Saturday, as the field doesn't look the strongest, but he is no doubt gonna end up losing a lot of ground at the start, or using up more petrol than everything else to stay in a handy position. His job has definately been made far more difficult. It's not always a case of a good jockey being able to overcome it either. Frankie got lucky in the Arc, that the pace was uncharecteristically slow early, which allowed him to get near the front and only 1 horse wide without using up to much gas. Was still a smart move by him, but most years he wouldn't have been afforded such a luxury.
How has that not shown up a draw bias? Every year bar the last one when the Middle horse won, a horse drawn in the lower half of the draw has won. No horse has won the Champion stakes being drawn in the top half of horses
No, because a sample of 4 races cannot be used to draw any significant statistical conclusion - you need more data points for the analysis to be relevant. I have therefore reviewed each race in isolation to determine whether there were any "hard luck stories" which could be attributed to the draw. There weren't any. EOS. If Jack Hobbs gets beat on Saturday it won't be because of the draw. He is 3lbs clear of the next highest rated horse, Fascinating Rock, and in receipt of 5lbs WFA from that one. I suspect connections fear he isn't a true 10F horse and could get done for toe, so they are getting their excuses lined up early.
An amazing stat re the ‘Champion Stakes’ is that it hasn’t gone to Ballydoyle since 1968. And when you think of the 2 great, great, great trainers that have been based at that barn that, I say that, is an astounding stat. The trainer to follow since the inception of the dreaded ‘British Champions Day’ has to be Dermot Weld. Since 2012 he’s had runners in 5 races and won 3 of them! He’s 2 running for him of the morrow. Will this excellent run continue??? You pays your money and makes your choice. The meeting has also been somewhat overshadowed by jockeys receiving whip bans. It would appear, unfortunately, that the increased prizemoney leads to over jealousness when it comes to administering slaps on the rump. Let’s hope for a reversal of such activity this term.
It is just your opinion that there weren't any, though I'd rather look at the facts, and they say that no horse drawn in the top half of the draw has won the race, where as 3 in the bottom half have, and 1 in the centre. Saying a horse broke well and was up with the pace is all well and good in your analysis, but you've not mentioned anything about how wide they where travelling. You swap So You Think and Cirrus Des Aigles draws around and id be fairly certain we'd of got a different result that year
Here we go again with the lamest race meeting in the British calendar. The main reason for this meeting is too attract drunken crowds from London to spend money. Nobody ever mentions the Champions Series outside of the obliged media. At least this year we may actually see one or two of the actual 'champions' race in Muhaarar and Solow. I don't think any of the horses leading the categories ran at the meeting last year. Out of the 'category leaders' as shown on the Champions Series website:- None run in the Long Distance race. Only one, Muhaarar, runs in the Sprint race. None run in the Fillies & Mares race. Solow and possibly Gleneagles run in the Mile race. None run in the Champion Stakes. So going by the Champions Series own standard on champions, only two possibly three are going to run out of 15. The whole meeting is a waste of time. The fact that the Jockeys Championship finishes tomorrow when the flat season still goes on is another huge joke. I have said it before but I would have much rather liked to see a five day 'festival of racing' at Newmarket this week with the likes of the Champion Stakes, Pride Stakes, Jockey Club Cup, Sun Chariot Stakes, Dewhurst Stakes,, Rockfel Stakes, Joel Stakes, Darley Stakes, Challenge Stakes, Autumn Stakes, Cambridgeshire, Cesarewitch etc all at one big end of season meeting. They could hold events, exhibitions to showcase the sport and how it works at the headquarters of the sport.
Indeed - and there is no draw bias on the Rowley mile - oops, except for the Cesarewitch, where that first turn comes VERY quickly after the start But seriously, if the draw is such a disadvantage in certain races there are options - limit the field size, or have a "staggered" stalls set up.
I quite like the meeting to be honest, not sure why everyone has to be so negative about it. Frankel ran there twice, and plenty of other good horses have run there. France's equivalent is an even bigger joke, with the best horse in France for a couple of seasons being banned from running just because he had no bollocks. There loss was our gain though
I would have the British Festival of Flat Racing around the time of the King George meeting at Ascot - late July or possible even early August. This wouldn't clash with any of the other major flat events and it would be at a stage of the season where the classic generation are matured and are ready to tackle their elders. The King George already provides the 12F showpiece and the whole weekend could be built around that. Maybe Saturday for the 2YO races and a big showpiece handicap, then Sunday Champions day with Sprint, mile, 10F and 12F championship races plus a stayers event. Then top off the whole thing with a 2 mile bumper
They could never have staggered stalls, as they'd have to introduce lanes, which wouldn't be feasible with a horse. With handicaps I have no problems with big fields and draw bias, but in G1 races I think the fields should be restricted to the top 8 horses on ratings entered. Even in jumps races if you bet in running on them, you'll notice horses drifting out considerably in bigger field races if they don't get a position at the start down near the rails. As the ones on the inside will always cover alot less distance than those on the outside
Well the ground is as good as it ever will be, the Gleneagles v Solow clash is on but...I'm sorry this is just the wrong time of the year to have this meeting. Tomorrow you have the most high profile football match of the weekend clashing with the races, then you have the Rugby World Cup. The casual sports fan has no idea this meeting is even taking place to be honest. Last weekend would have been a better option probably - it was still sunny back then too!
Cirrus Des Aigles was not banned from running. He has run on the Saturday of the meeting in the Prix Dollar six times (three wins) because it was open to geldings. The Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe has always been restricted to entires, so the owner’s of Cirrus Des Aigles are to blame for depriving him of a couple of requirements for male entrants on Sunday. They have staggered stalls in greyhound handicaps, although admittedly there are only six or eight runners. There does not seem much point in restricting the field size to eight in most Group 1 races as when a top Group 1 horse is entered the field is rarely bigger than single figures; plus that also frequently results in short-priced favourites that are bad news for betting turnover (and, therefore, horseracing levy contributions). They could just put a restriction on some races such that horses with ratings more than 14lb behind that of the top-rated horse are barred from running to get rid of the 50/1 plus no-hopers. Perhaps they should just put the stalls at an angle and away from the inside rail. In long distance athletics races, the runners are spread along an angled line at the start so that those on the outside are not obviously disadvantaged by having to run further.
Gentlemen: Interesting discussion on the draw, You might find these two little publications interesting if you can get ahold of a copy. Both published by Raceform, and both written by Graham Wheldon. "The Effects Of The Draw". "Backing The Draw For Profit". The first one is the best and most useful, I reckon, but the second one might interest Oddy...........
If Gleneagles actually takes part, there is no chance of him being made favourite whilst Solow is still in the race. The bookmakers will be happy to lay the 2000 Guineas winner on going with the word Soft in it as his opponent is quite at home on easy ground.
I'm actually of the opinion that Gleneagles would wipe the floor with Solow on good to firm ground, but with soft in the description I think Solow has to be favourite. but don't forget how Gleneagles was still able to win the Irish Guineas on tacky ground, so I wouldn't rule him out if he does run
