Interesting bookmaker reaction to the draw, with the betting now revised. 11/10 Treve is available with Paddy Power and Betfair, 5/1 Golden Horn is available with the Magic Sign (and a couple of others) and 5/1 New Bay is available with Paddy Power although both are generally 9/2. Found is now available at 20/1 whilst most of the outsiders have not changed much except that the three drawn out in the trees are 100/1, including supplemented SpiritJim. Curiously the pacemaker Shahah is only 250/1 despite never having won beyond seven furlongs. Paddy Power could be making a mistake as if Treve is to be beaten, I expect it to be one of the Derby winners and Andre Fabre’s colt New Bay has an excellent position with the pacemaker drawn near the rail; and his only defeat this season was when second in the Poulains.
Why is that Shergs? Treve won impressively from draw 15 in 2013 (17 runners) - and dwelt at the start. What's the difference? If he's good enough he can win. Stats "Whereas a brilliant horse may win from a poor draw, a moderate horse will most certainly not."
It's pretty simple Ron unless the horse has loads in hand over the opposition then they aren't winning from a wide draw. Treve had loads in hand over the competition with the ground as it was in 2013. Everything being equal I could give Golden Horn a chance, but he is now severely handicapped, as he'll have to travel 3 or 4 horses wide giving probably like 15 lengths to the horses down on the rails. He literally has no chance from that draw IMO. This is why I would limit the race to 8 runners every year, with only the 8 top rated horses allowed to run. As there are far to many donkeys running, trying to pinch abit of prize money, who are harming the chances of the better horses in the race. It should be about finding the best 12f horse around, not about which horse gets lucky with the draw
You know the old saying, the bigger the field, the bigger the certainty. The thing is, if it was eight runners, we would be discussing pace, tactics and whether the best horse will win the race. I do not think for one moment that GH will be travelling that far wide, but you do need a good passage in the Arc and it is much harder to get it from out wide. You also have to be the best horse in the field, and I don't think he is.
Shergar, you'd destroy Europe's greatest race. I suppose you'd also run the Derby at Kempton on tapeta?
How would I ruin the race? Let's say for arguments sake, we had 2 superstars in the race, lets say Zarkava and Treve where around in the same year. One gets drawn 18 and the other gets drawn in stall 1. That's what you call ruining a race! As far as the Derby is concerned, the draw bias is very minimal to none existent over a mile and half at Epsom, so I have no issues with that track. Longchamp is one of the most biased tracks around however so they shouldn't be running G1s over 12f with 18 runners every year
Hardly an ideal draw for the Horn but surely having a top jockey like Dettori goes a major way to redress any disadvantage there is? Few better than Frankie. As has been said previously, the best horse wins the race 99% of the time, just the same as every other race. Haven't Dalakani and Treve won from similar draws? If the horse is beat, it's as he's not good enough, as most of us suspect anyway. Simples
In the last 15 years only 1 horse (Treve) drawn higher than 8 has won the Arc. Do I really need to say anymore. They have eased Golden Horn from 9/2 to 5/1, but as far as I'm concerned he should be atleast doubling in price
I wouldn't read too much into those sort of stats personally. I seem to remember that the year Russian Rythm won the Lockinge, the stats said a filly couldn't win it. I think fillies won the next 3 runnings. I wouldn't be backing Golden Horn btw. But that has nothing to do with the draw.
Good to see that Mr Candy hasn’t messed about. Instead he’s gone out and booked Sir Ryan to ride Limato in the ‘Foret’. Let’s hope he romps home. Putting my ‘Pricewise’ hat on for a moment I think the best current value, in the Arc, lies with Tapesty, what a lovely name for a filly by the way. Wouldn’t put anyone off a little each-way tickle at 33/1 re that one.
There are obviously occasional exceptions but 90% of the time the race is won by a horse drawn low. If you don't think that's a telling stat then you where born yesterday. That's 15 years of Arcs, and only once has a horse drawn higher than 8 won. And bearing in mind there are usually 18 runners every year, so the top 10 horses have won over a 15 year period once and the bottom 8 have won 14 times. So it's 14-1 bottom 8 v top 10! But no that's not a telling stat and just purely a coincidence Imagine a 400m Athletics race where there was no staggered start, and they all started on the finish line. Would be pretty stupid wouldn't it, well that's what the Arc is like every year and the stats prove this
Here is my John McCririck piece of betting advice for the Arc (remember him telling us Dancing Brave would pay better than 2/1 on the PMU in 1986?): If Treve is your idea of the winner and you are not already on, take the 11/10 or Even money with the British bookies as she will be about 2/5 or 3/10 on the PMU win pool and will definitely be the minimum 1/10 for a place. It is hard to say whether Golden Horn will be better than 5/1 or 9/2 on the PMU because his perceived bad draw may put off some punters; however, if Dettori has won the preceding Prix de l’Opera on Jazzi Top, there could be people playing up their winnings. Those looking at Prix Du Jockey Club winner New Bay are probably best advised to take British bookies’ odds as he will be coupled with Flintshire (same owner). Similarly, followers of Andre Fabre’s 2014 runner-up should take the British odds unless they just want to back the owner to win. Note: coupling only applies to the win pool. The best drawn amongst the outsiders are Erupt and Eagle Top. Punters fancying these for place purposes face a quandary: for example, 50/1 Eagle Top at 1/4 odds is effectively 23/4 to place but will the PMU place pool pay more than 6.75? Of the three Irish contenders, Found has the worst of the draw but Ryan Moore’s mount won on this card last year. In a lopsided British market, her odds are probably bigger than what she will pay to win on the PMU after their hefty deductions, a sentiment that could also apply to Free Eagle.
May I refer to the Timeform article on the effect of the draw It takes account of the effect on all runners. Any draw advantage can be lost by not getting an early position. How many lengths did Dancing Brave make up in the last 2 furlongs? Personally, I think Treve could be in trouble, looking at those drawn either side. If they plan to squeeze her out early on she might be the one having to come late and wide.
Dancing Brave made up an enormous amount of ground from third or fourth last but he had the turn of foot of a miler, who beat the subsequent champion sprinter in the 2000 Guineas. I do not see those drawn around her as the problem: if Treve is beaten it may be by herself, pulling herself to the front too soon and being there to be targeted by those behind. The race tactics will be critical for Golden Horn. Frankie will want to ride a race like he had at Epsom, so the key is not to use up too much horse making an exaggerated move at the start of the race to get across to the rails but just find some cover on the outside of the pack. He has to believe that he is on the best horse in the race (certainly the best three year old) and wait until they get into the straight and hope that he still has that turn of foot that he showed in the Dante to pick up the leaders.
you need me beefy, where else are you going to steal your patter from arsechaser, as perro de scripto
Ah the annual reaction to the Arc draw, I love it. Fresh horse needed for the aintree juvenile as well
