Golden Horn's owner Anthony Oppenheimer on his chances against Treve. "I'm delighted to take her on and I really, seriously believe if we had firm ground, or good to firm, we'd win easily." Pretty bullish stuff.
Big news from the Arc second forfeit stage: JACK HOBBS out. SpiritJim, Golden Horn and Shahah supplemented. If your horse for the Arc is not amongst the following eighteen, it will not be running: Flintshire, Eagle Top, Manatee, Meleagros, Prince Gibraltar, SpiritJim, Free Eagle, Dolniya, Treve, Frine, Siljan’s Saga, Tapestry, New Bay, Silverware, Erupt, Golden Horn, Shahah, Found. Friday’s final declarations and the draw are all that is left now before Sunday.
To bet each-way on the PMU is two bets. I think he is likely to be a generous price in the Win pool but I expect that the Place pool will not pay very well as, just like with the Tote in the UK, folks will be looking outside the front three or four in the betting for ones that might burgle a place.
Quicker ground would suit the three year old just as much as Dermot Weld’s charge. His best two performances have been on quick ground (Derby, Eclipse) and the Irish horse was already beaten when bumped. He did not look “a bit of a plodder” when he showed that turn of foot to win the Dante back in May (on a flat track like Longchamp) or when he scooted away from Jack Hobbs at Epsom; but I guess difference of opinion makes horse races. I will qualify the “two highest rated turf horses in Britain” by assuming that you mean three year olds; however, neither Golden Horn nor Jack Hobbs achieved their current ratings at Epsom. Golden Horn earned his 130 rating at Sandown in the Eclipse Stakes having been rated 125 for his Derby victory. Jack Hobbs earned his 123 rating at The Curragh in the Irish Derby, his runner-up slot at Epsom not making the top 20 list for June.
Current best odds from Oddschecker for the Arc: 11/10 Treve (with betway, 21/20 available on exchanges) 5/1 Golden Horn 11/2 New Bay 16/1 Found, Free Eagle 20/1 Flintshire 33/1 Dolniya, Erupt, Tapestry 40/1 Prince Gibraltar
The interesting thing for me about this race is that Golden Horn connections are looking forward to coming off the pace, which he hasn't really had much chance to do since the Derby, espec as the Juddmonte was a funny old affair and he won the Eclipse and the Irish Champion from the front. New Bay will likely be doing much the same given his style and turn of foot, and I suspect Free Eagle will be no further forward than mid division. Treve can seemingly go from anywhere but we know she won't front run until she pulls herself forward as they hit the turn for home. The point that keeps screaming out to me is "where is the effing pace?". Eagle Top is engaged but he has been best held up off a strong pace on quick ground- would Lady Bamford be happy to sacrifice him as a pacemaker? AOBs two fillies are not gonna go from the front either. If the pace is slow then surely Treve and New Bay are at an advantage given the way they quicken up? What do you all think?
What do I know? I'm going out on a limb, bugger it. I've just had a look at Flintshires' last two runs. 20-1 looks to be outstanding each way betting. I'm sorely tempted to have my first bet in years.
When did I say he had the best form in Europe? I dont know what it is you are struggling to understand, the Derby was the best race in Europe this season, what has that got to do with Treves 2013 form for example? What has it got to do specifically with this years Arc? When did I ever say it had anything to do with the Arc? I dont take the draw into consideration and I believe there are Arc types, horses who have the tools suited to the best flat race on the planet and horses who dont. Ive backed more Arc winners than losers so im happy enough to keep my philosophy. Golden Horn is not an extreme case but he was not built for the race to my eye, he was made for the King George. You have spent the season trying to knock these two colts because you started out calling one a handicapper and the other a non stayer, its as simple as that. Grow up. Will Golden Horn "fall out the back of the the TV" this weekend like you predicted he would in the Derby?
Shahah has been added to the race as a pacemaker for Treve. She is owned by Sheikh al Thani, was in training with Andre Fabre (won a Group 3 race at Chantilly for him last term) and has been transferred to Criquette Head-Maarek specifically for the role. With less than twenty declared she is guaranteed a run (unlike in previous years where Aidan O’Brien has had potential pacemakers balloted out because there was a maximum field). He was runner-up last year and the drying ground is in his favour, so you could be right. He could be another Youmzain, saving his best for this race.
Oh the irony To be fair I contragulated you on the Horn after the Derby, and even on your own thread. When I'm wrong I hold my hands up and say it. I'd never clutch at straws and make excuse after excuse for when I get it wrong.
I can see Flintshire running some very fast fractions from the front as he did over in America gave him a very easy lead over there and I know they won't here but can see him going from the front. If not then I don't know to much about the outsiders but can see one of them trying to run the legs out the field and failing but in turn making a truly run race!
For me The cool more lads are running the wrong horse Legatissimo form is so much stronger than Found who may or my not get the distance she would have been unbeaten had it not been for getting done ! But for me they have made the wrong choice
Der kaisers taken such a beating he's had to revert to quoting me as his signature. Clearly a sign that being schooled by beefy on a regular basis is starting to break the man
No need to ruin a perfectly good thread with bickering lads, always the option of a private conversation
True. And I'm pretty sure that contragulating people online is still a felony in the Republic, particularly after that business with the Bishop of Armagh.
Can someone explain to a numpty like me how the hell we get a bet on the parimutuel online on Arc day if you live in Britain?
I'm not sure how you do it online Toppy, but when I used to run my own shop, customers just used to write paramutual on the slip, and I'd settle them at the paramutual odds, so if there's a shop near you and you can't do it online just do that. Check with them first but I'm pretty sure it'll still be fine. I've done this myself in shops with the American tote at the breeders cup a few years ago, and they accepted it fine, and payed me out the tote returns. Even though the money in theory hasn't actually gone into the tote pool
For those interested in the Arc draw, this is the field in draw order: 01 Manatee – Andre Fabre, Mickael Barzalona 02 Shahah – Mme Criquette Head-Maarek, Gregory Benoist 03 Eagle Top – John Gosden, William Buick 04 Erupt – Francis-Henri Graffard, Stephane Pasquier 05 New Bay – Andre Fabre, Vincent Cheminaud 06 Frine – Carlos Laffon-Parias, Olivier Peslier 07 Siljan’s Saga – Jean-Pierre Gauvin, Pierre-Charles Boudot 08 Treve – Mme Criquette Head-Maarek, Thierry Jarnet 09 Tapestry – Aidan O’Brien, Joseph O’Brien 10 Prince Gibraltar – Jean-Claude Rouget, Fabrice Veron 11 Flintshire – Andre Fabre, Maxime Guyon 12 Free Eagle – Dermot Weld, Pat Smullen 13 Dolniya – Alain De Royer Dupre, Christophe Soumillon 14 Golden Horn – John Gosden, Lanfranco Dettori 15 Found – Aidan O’Brien, Ryan Moore 16 Meleagros – Alain Couetil, Adrien Fouassier 17 Silverware – Alain Couetil, James Doyle 18 SpiritJim – Alain Couetil, Andrea Atzeni Theoretically, bad draws for Golden Horn and Found but excellent draws for Treve and New Bay...
