Am with you Toppy on Free Eagle especially at 16/1 ew looks a nice value too should be as effective over this trip so no worries and can see him overturning the form with Golden Horn Elsewhere in the Abbeye have just had a bit of 10's ew for MUTHMIR his win at good wood carrying top weight a repeat of that oerformance will see him go very close indeed
it was a masterstroke, just a pity no one told Gosden the derby was the best race in Europe so far because the winner and second are the two highest rated turf horses in Britain this season im not saying it was an amazing race or that the form is something special, but its the strongest form so far in a poor year for the flat "you'd have to believe the winner of it should be hacking up in this race" would ye aye? why is that? all the best horses are meeting in the Arc as always, they have not ran against each other this season so it would be pretty stupid to bank on form that is the best only due to circumstance show me a better race than Golden Horn vs Jack Hobbs this season, thats my point
It probably was Beefy, and the races won by Golden Horn and Jack Hobbs since prove this. Treve IMO hasn't been fully extended this year so it's nothing against her
Ted Walsh called it honestly on the Irish Champion as well, "hes gave him a right dunt but he had him collared at the time, the best horse has won no doubt about it" Free Eagle has no chance in the Arc, couldnt have Golden Horn either but he will run a race, he needs the draw and a good trip
From a betting perspective at 1/5 the odds a place, 2 points on Treve to win at evs gives 100% profit (4 points return). To achieve the same % profit with an ew bet, for the same outlay, requires 1 point ew at 15/1 (ie returning 4 points for the 2 points outlay. I may be nuts but from where I'm sitting there isn't a 15/1 shot that you be confident about getting a place.
Free Eagle @ 16/1 good draw and good ground I'm pretty confident of him getting a place but does need things to go in his favour abit
Why would you back a horse e/w if you think a place is the best you can hope for? It doesn't make sense to throw away half your stake before they've even gone behind. The time to bet e/w is when a place is the least you expect.
Completely disagree!! Saying that I never bet a horse ew smaller than 8/1. On free eagle on Sunday your betting pretty much 6/4 that he will get placed and for a horse like him that is a huge price! It's called broadening your bets
It doesn't work out at 6/4 though, as you have to take into account the losing win money that you've layed out. Assuming it's 1/4 the odds, that's like 1/2 for your money.
If you get 1/4 odds a place Wooly and you're more confident of him getting in 1st 3 than Treve winning then I get your thinking
If you get 1/4 odds at 16/1 that's 4/1 returning £5 for £1 ew. £3 profit for £2 outlay = 6/4 as far as I can see.
You've lost me with this agenda nonsense and I'm genuinely shocked by this DK, here was me thinking we were mates What I don't get is how the winner of the best race, the one with the best form in Europe is one you've said has no chance of beating Treve. It's the same distance as the Derby race yet you're waffling things like he's not an Arc type etc. This doesn't sound very much like calling a spade a spade to me
Since 1950 6 Epsom Derby winners have won an Arc, all in the year they won the Derby. I don't know how many have contested it. There have been unlucky losers and Dancing Brave should have added to the list of 6. There could be several reasons for that. The Longchamp course is totally different, being flat. The horses are 4 months older so later maturers have developed more relatively,. The going is probably different most years; even moreso in the case of 3yos v older horses. However, over the same period 40 3yos have won the Arc
Re Free Eagle surely you wait until Sunday before placing any wager on him as he’s likely to be miles bigger than 16/1 on the PMU. No real opinion on the Arc to be frank but the one I’m most looking forward to across the Channel, in our fellow EU member state on Sunday, has to be Mr Candy’s Limato in the ‘Foret’. I thought he was mightily impressive on Leger day – a performance that slipped up the radar somewhat given the furore that was to follow in the big ‘un itself.
