Not on simple win markets such as this. It's very rare for odds to change dramatically in the week preceding a fixture, the bookies know whereabouts the mark is.
I'm aware the bookies don't, it's just my personal view of what's important in estimating the probabilities of who will win.
I knew the mags would come on this thread. Doesn't matter how you dress it up, it's a ridiculous price. Being a long way from home has got **** all to do with it considering we stop down there the night before
It does get factored in to the price. A very tiny amount of course in a league like this and with a stay but in a parralel universe where you were playing a team exactly as good as Bournemouth but down the road, your odds would be slightly shorter.
Bournemouth are currently one of the most backed teams of the day on Betfair and you've drifted to 6.2 on the exchange. That's 5.2/1 in old money.
I don't agree. What would you say the odds would have been if Bournemouth was in Yorkshire, for example?
A negligible difference. If you're 4/1 when it's in Bournemouth then a tiny fraction below that if 200 miles closer. Something like 3.98/1, if such odds existed. All sorts goes into it that the bloke on the street wouldn't consider particularly important. If the same expected XI played on Wednesday and Bournemouth played on Tuesday, that would have a larger impact. The travel method, expected home and away attendance, weather, pitch quality, rivalry factor etc. It's very scientific Anyway, I'm on Sunderland but then I was last week too
Fair enough. Nobody is saying it's a game we should be expected to win, we know it's going to be tough. We are visibly improving week by week though and have a far better chance than them odds suggest. If we don't win, I'm not going to regret the bet for the simple fact, the bookies overpriced us and it was great value.
I've put £20 on us to win. I also entered a 1-4 score on the sky bet predictor super six. Probably heart ruling head but I reckon we are improving game by game and we will give somebody a stuffing soon. We are not as bad as the rest of the country thinks and I can see us finishing 14th or so.
will do fella, cheers. part 1 of the journey done. part 2 -getting across london - coming up... looking forward to part 4: drinking, banter, singing, footy et al
I'll be having a bite on that mind. I still maintain that 4/1 isn't far off. Seems people are determined to create a world were everyone is out to get Sunderland, media, pundits, bookies, our own left back... 4/1 is generous, but only a little.
5/1 with BET365 now. I don't believe this has anything to do with thinking everybody is out to get Sunderland at all. I posted a few other tight games this weekend, like ours is, and the away teams are generally between 2/1 and 9/4, which is where I believe we should be.
Sometimes if not much backing for a club they will drift the odds to encourage a bit of interest, probably just that as I'd imagine Bournemouth are heavily backed outside of Wearside.
I don't see why, they have 4 points and haven't set the world on fire. If it was Swansea or Palace, it would make more sense. We aren't gunna agree on this one, no biggie. Anything you fancy this weekend?
5-1 and 7-2 for the draw at Bet 365. Stick 20 on the draw and 20 for the win. Nice profit for either result. I'm still not touching it though.
do you have any key players injured/suspended since Sunday? The drift might be because there's some team news not privy to the mere mortals.
