So Treve is on 129 for that, 5 pounds below Rip Van Winkles best She'll be tough to beat in the Arc on that evidence, but I'd still much rather take the 9/1 Jack Hobbs than the Evens Treve
Not quite Shergs. She produced that rating in that race, winning easily on very soft going. Don't forget she was hardly likely to be extended as it was a prep for her (hopefully) history making 3rd Arc. Not a bad rating for an exercise gallop
Was the Arc run over a shorter distance in 2014 to that in 2013? Longchamp (FR) Result 05 Oct 2014 « 3:30 »QATAR PRIX DE L'ARC DE TRIOMPHE (GROUP 1) (3YO+ NO GELDINGS) (TURF) (3yo+) 1m4f Good 1 Treve (FR) 11/1 4 9-2 Thierry Jarnet Took keen hold, midfield in touch on inner, smooth headway to challenge 2f out, soon shaken up and quickened to lead, ridden and stayed on strongly final furlong, easily TIME 2m 26.05s (fast by 4.45s) -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Longchamp (FR) Result 06 Oct 2013 « 3:15 »QATAR PRIX DE L'ARC DE TRIOMPHE (GROUP 1) (3YO+ COLTS, FILLIES & MARES) (TURF) (3yo+) 1m4f Soft 1 Treve (FR) 9/2 3 8-8 Thierry Jarnet Dwelt slightly, took keen hold, held up in midfield on outer, rapid headway and prominent 3f out, challenged going strongly 2f out, shaken up to lead and quickened clear, ridden and stayed on strongly inside final furlong, very impressive TIME 2m 32.04s (slow by 1.54s)
For info, Longchamp (FR) Result 13 Sep 2015 « 3:10 »QATAR PRIX VERMEILLE (GROUP 1) (3YO+ FILLIES & MARES) (TURF) (3yo+) 1m4f Very Soft 1 Treve (FR) 2/5F 5 9-3 Thierry Jarnet Took keen hold, steadied in touch, smooth headway to track leaders over 4f out, led on bit on outside over 2f out, shaken up, drifted right and quickened clear over 1f out, readily TIME 2m 34.09s (slow by 3.59s)
The disparity in the times for the Arc over years just goes to illustrate the impact of (a) the state of the going; and (b) how the race is run when there is a maximum field and no front runners (or pacemakers). Back in 2012 when the completely unfancied Solemia won, the time was 2:37.68 and Workforce won in a time of 2:35.30 in 2010. The fastest Arc this century was the 2:25.00 clocked by Bago in 2004. Would anybody back Bago against Treve?
It wasn't an exercise gallop or a prep race for the beaten horses though, the race was still a G1 race. So to win like that warrants a lot more than 129. I can think of many horses rated a lot higher, that wouldn't have got anywhere near her the other day
You are right, Der Kaiser, Danedream clocked 2:24.49, so I should have checked my facts before posting as I was there for all the races that I quoted but just assumed the German filly was not a fast time.
Hobbs could miss Arc in favour of Champion bid BY DAVID MILNES4:19PM 19 SEP 2015 JACK HOBBS could skip the Qatar Prix De L'Arc de Triomphe to wait for the Qipco Champion Stakes at Ascot 13 days later if the ground dries out too much to suit him. The Irish Derby winner is a top-priced 9-1 for the Arc on October 4 and trainer John Gosden is also on weather watch for stablemate Golden Horn, a general 7-1 chance. Gosden is hoping to run Golden Horn if the ground is good to soft or quicker at Longchamp, a scenario which could yet see Jack Hobbs re-routed to the Champion Stakes at Ascot on October 17. The trainer said: "I really need to see a reliable long range weather forecast, but I've never seen a horse handle testing ground as well as Treve did in the Prix Vermeille so we are mindful of her if Jack Hobbs takes his chance. "But if it dries out it could well be that we save Jack Hobbs for the Champion Stakes as he can't do both as the races are 13 days apart. Both horses are also in the Breeders' Cup, so there is that to consider as well." You can practically smell the poop in his pants
Interesting that Treve carried a pound more last Sunday than Postponed, but Postponed ran the same course/ground over a second faster than Treve. Think I'll just wait to see what turns up on the day
Indeed Ron, Eagle Top yesterday showing how poor a King George this year's was. Grade 1 in name, Grade 3 in reality. I wonder could small a field this years Arc could turn into with old boy Gosden not likely to be the only one running away from the supermare.
I see Order of St George has been introduced in the betting at 20/1. Any news on this? I think he could be the biggest threat if he runs
Might be heading for Melbourne http://www.racingpost.com/news/hors...er/1957783/top/#newsArchiveTabs=last7DaysNews We'll know by Thursday
I think we are looking at about a ten horse field plus any pacemakers: Treve New Bay One of Jack Hobbs or Golden Horn Found Postponed Free Eagle (?) Flintshire Dolniya Prince of Gibraltar Erupt (?) I suspect the trials of Treve and New Bay will scare of any French supplementary entries. Anybody thinking about each way bets should consider wagering pretty soon as once the bookies get wind of a possible small field the outsiders' prices will shorten. As I have already posted Hills and Coral already 1/5 the odds on each way bets!
Order of St George is not amongst the 105 entries for the Arc, so they will have to shell out the supplementary fee to add him to the race if he is to run. Those interested in an ante post punt should check out Betfair where he is trading at 84/1. The existing Ballydoyle entries are Tapestry, Highland Reel, Giovanni Canaletto, Hans Holbein, Kilimanjaro, John F Kennedy, Ol’ Man River, Fluff, Found and Together Forever. The other representative for “the Lads” is Legatissimo.
Bit of a dog alright but he landed me a nice bet that Sunday! In fairness I think you listed off about 5 or 6 dogs back at me but pretty sure Gleneagles wasn't amongst them Round Two next years one, fill yer boots
I listed prominent 2yos at the time and said you couldnt say anything was the one to beat. Most of them did turn out dogs.
