With Treve now evs/odds on. We have to look for some ew value. Free Eagle can be got at 20/1. Is he likely to stay 12f well enough?
I agree about looking for a second or third. The first consideration is the likelihood of your choice taking part. If I was starting from scratch my first pick would be Postponed who looks a definite runner at 20/1. Although the times of the trials at Longchamp today are usually misleading the Foy was the quickest of the three. Also the colt seems to give everything no matter the going.
Solely musings on my part as I have Treve at 5/1 and 3/1 amongst other ante post punts including Postponed at 25/1.
This. Betting each way means you're betting on 2 places, second or third. I'm on Found e/w from a few weeks back as she looked one who could improve for the step up in trip, and as yesterday showed on collateral form she has the beating of Jack Hobbs, and when I backed her she was 4 times his price. The only tiny minuscule worry was if the track was like a road for Treve but I'd say that's hugely unlikely and even on pretty quick ground she done alright last year! If she's evens or thereabouts on the day, she's a certainty. The rest have no chance.
Unfortunately I am not returning to Koln until next June to see BAP in concert. Earlier trips to Paris and Munich first. However back to the Arc; as I stated on, I think, another thread I am seriously considering adding to my scattergun approach with a punt on Katraktar at 33/1. According to Equida the colt was withdrawn from the Niel (a wise choice) to run in next weekend's Prix du Prince d'Orange which has produced some excellent winners On reflection, over the weekend the only 'failure' in my book was Erupt.
Plenty of good things get rolled in these great races. And when you factor in a history that shows only two wins have ever been achieved, then even money is pretty thin odds. We're saying that she has one chance and the entire field between them only has a single chance. I'm not sure that's value. I don't know how many have attempted three, but the wonderful mare Corrida after failing in 1935, won the next two. Along with the great mare Treve, only two others have won twice. One was the very good horse Alleged, the other a bloody champion of the highest class, Ribot. Maybe Treve doesn't have all that much to beat this year, but evens is pretty scary stuff.
On that form yesterday she wins. She showed the old Treve- quickened TWICE despite being keen. Unreal. Quickened up to take a prominent position and the lead, then again to put the race to bed. As others have said, only if it is too quick might she struggle. Having said that, the opposition will of course be better next time but THAT much better? For Treve to be beat she needs traffic issues or to underperform and I say that as someone who always seeks value. Personally I think both Kaiser and Beef played the two most sensible ew bets a few weeks ago when Jack Hobbs and Found were bigger. I know you both disagree with one another but Jack Hobbs has looked sensational right handed and Found looks to be on the improve up in trip and on ground on the softer side- as an Arc will be. But can they, or even New Bay, live with that turn of foot you saw yesterday?
Any ante post bets from now must have as their first consideration will my choice run? Treve and New Bay might 'scare off' most of the 'home' team and there will be no Japanese or German entries. This leaves participants from England and Ireland. Found, Postponed and Jack Hobbs seem probable runners. Free Eagle a possible along with Golden Horn who, despite ground fears, may run as he has now lost his unbeaten tag. At this point we should consider the beating Treve handed out to Arabian Queen! My judgement would be a small field (8) a la 'Deep Impact' or a very large field with plenty outsiders hoping to pick up some prize money. The beneficiaries of the Treve effect could be the Prix de l'Opera or the Champion Stakes (17 October). This post completed before post directly above from TC.
I have backed Jack Hobbs, Legastissimo and Kingston Hill Ew (Kingston hill I have no idea why i must have been drunk) She has a turn a foot which is a bit frankel-esk just destroys the field and gets her out trouble and not many if any can live with it! But the like of Jack Hobbs has a very high cruising speed will go near the front IMO staying clear of the traffic problems and more importantly away from the bumps and wips in his face! Only way some one else will win is if they can get first run on her but will need a very high crusing speed like Jack Hobbs who is getting better with every run and altho has had a fairly long season he will be fresh as a daisy come arc day the run at Kempton was a nice day out with a good piece of work! But if Buick has the right tactics in place he has an outstanding chance and is the main challenger to her (if golden horn doesn't run) at evens she may be a good thing but is too skinny as all stats are against her, last year she wasn't expected to win an won this year she is expected to blast them away but will she ?? For my wallet i hope not but overall for racing it's a definate yes I hope so the more superstars we have the better for the sport!!
As I have the top end of the Arc market covered I have just added Karaktar (33/1) and Prince Gibraltar (40/1) to my book. Both seem intended runners and Prince Gibraltar beaten by Treve by just under five lengths in 2014 Arc. Please note both Coral and Hills are only 1/5 the odds for each way bets!!!!!!
Really hoping Treve gets a horrendously bad draw to be honest, purely from a punting view. These things get overplayed a bit, but when you're in a different league like this filly blatantly is she could be drawn at Prestbury Park for all I care! Imagine odds against on the day, it'd be Faugheen all over again
After all the weekend’s shenanigans, the Arc betting now looks like this with the British bookies: Evens Treve 6/1 New Bay 7/1 Golden Horn 8/1 Jack Hobbs 16/1 Found 20/1 Free Eagle, Postponed 25/1 Nutan 33/1 Dariyan, Dolniya, Eagle Top, Erupt, Flintshire, The Grey Gatsby It does not surprise me that the bookies have not over-reacted to Treve’s victory because of the level of the opposition in the Prix Vermeille. The Aga Khan’s filly had won a Group 3, a Listed race and some conditions races; and the only two Group 1 winning opponents in the field were Arabian Queen (Juddmonte International thanks to good tactical ride over shorter) and Diamondsandrubies (Pretty Polly Stakes over shorter). I think it can be taken as read that France Galop and the Pari-Mutuel Urbain are looking forward to a bumper pay day on 4th October. Their twenty-odd per cent rake off from half of France piling onto Treve down to ridiculously short odds-on will swell this year’s French racing coffers. Anything but Treve might pay rewarding win odds on the PMU but I expect that the place betting is going to be feeble.
From The Independent's Jon Freeman: "Half an hour earlier, New Bay, the Prix du Jockey Club winner, had thrown down the gauntlet in the Prix Niel, brushing aside decent opposition to give master trainer André Fabre fond hopes of winning an eighth Arc. But Treve is the Muhammad Ali of racing and it was as if New Bay’s impressive win stung her into a big response. “Is that all you’ve got?” she seemed to be saying to the young upstart as she powered clear in the home straight under Thierry Jarnet like a Ferrari pulling away from milk floats."
One of those milk floats beat our Derby winner lto too. She looks unbeatable but I had an ew speculation on Found at 33s after her last victory and should get a run for my dough. 3 year old fillies do get a fair ol weight pull in this event too so she's certainly no outsider for a place.
I loved the way Treve almost pulled herself to the front entering the false straight, Jarnet all out to keep hold of her. What a wonderful sight, the horse so full of menacing foreboding saying to the jockey "come on, let me go get them". Poetry in motion.
Just been watching Treves defeats from last year- totally bizarre- she wasn't striding out to my very untrained eye and then she looked so happy again on the softer turf back at Longchamp come Arc day. I wonder if Ascot took a lot out of her last summer and she took her time coming right?
