I understand all that. The world of betting is very different in the Internet era and with Betfair. Loads of people backed it on the back of Chelsea, the fact it 'only' went off 33-1 and not shorter was because of the depth of the ebor market, it's open nature with so many runners and the money for the Mullins runners and quick jack. Not the fact 'not many' people were on. The volume of cash to move it would have had to be huge and given the price people didn't need to risk a lot. I know first hand how quickly a horse can move in a thin market being involved with squire and Harry and getting bits of info. I've had much much smaller bets on with 365 and the bet is referred and the price has moved instantly. Same for stick and plenty of others I'm sure.
I think what you are missing here is how the betting really works. The mathematical theory is that the bookie will lay each horse proportionate to its odds so that whatever wins he will make a profit. When you see the betting percentage on a race, it is usually somewhere around 105 to 110 so the punters cannot back everything with a guaranteed profit. The trouble is that the theory does not reflect reality. In the real world, about forty per cent of the money wagered will be on the favourite and about ninety per cent of the money will be on the first half dozen in the market. In most races anything bigger than 16/1 will be a ‘skinner’ for most bookies. I used to know an old boy who worked on the rails for a big bookie and he spent most of his time at York running round the boards with office money shortening up the market. If I had been on the Knavesmire for the Ebor and had gone around a few bookies putting £20 on Litigant at 33/1 the odds would have shortened because they would have a liability on that outsider and they do not want to attract any more. When you bet online, there is only one bookie involved so they will adjust their prices according to their liabilities. Bet365 continue to use that out-of-date statistic to claim to be the world’s biggest online bookmaker but a small bet in an illiquid market will still shift the odds.
That's simply not the case. You can see the person behind laying off the win bets on Betfair. In the lead up to the race it was between 45 and 65 to 1 so they would have been making money on every bet taken at 33s and not shortenend up on the back of your bets if the betfair market was deep enough which it would have been unless you had at least 2k on an outsider like this in a market like the Ebor. On course bookies actually hate the ew angle to betting as there isn't the liquidity in the place markets to lay it off so often carry a place liability while not having a win liability at all given they merely act as a broker between betfair and punter on the course taking the skim in the middle which can be significant especially on bigger priced horses.
If there were people on Betfair prepared to lay between 45 and 65 to 1 about a 33/1 shot to lose £2k, they are very stupid and will quickly become very poor. I must open an account as the under round will be well below 100 per cent (enough to cover any commission) so I can clean up on every race no matter what wins by combining the longest odds on Betfair with the bookies.
So the difference of 1.4% on ONE horse is going to make all the difference. I don't think so. This would have been the biggest betting race of the day. I am not certain what that means but probably several million in stakes. You think 20 to 30 guys across a spread of all the available bookmakers (we don't all have a Stan James account) is going to make a difference? You may have worked in a bookies twenty years ago but times have changed. Some decent sized punts from a forum like ours may make a little difference at Brighton on a Monday but the size of bets from here would not have shifted that horse in THAT race on Saturday! I know what a few people had and other than Chelsea I expect the biggest bet from this forum was £30 each way. If anyone wants to shoot that down then please feel free to put me right. Anyway, chuffed to bits that the weekend was so amazing for so many on the forum, well done you tipping and information sharing stars, brilliant stuff!
The issue I had with your initial post was that given there wasn't a huge plunge not many people could have been on. Lots were, just modest stakes given the huge price that wouldn't have moved a market as huge as an ebor market. And it did move, by 50% with a very low Betfair sp vs bookie price. Lots of people very happy. I suggest you do open a Betfair account. You will be staggered the prices you get for unfancied runners. 100-1 shots are always 800-1 plus.
Knight Music going Brighton Tuesday. Will be no price though, forecast 5/4 but that will do if he wins
Going to the yard tomorrow to see my poorly boy and have a look at a new horse in the yard so will see what they have to say. I am a little surprised that they are going back to the turf and on a tricky track so short price may not be the gift that it looks.
Squire down and out at the moment is he? Yeah, I'm not a fan of backing at Brighton personally, some horses relish it, others not so much.
Yikes! Well hopefully it isn't serious and he can recover with a bit of TLC...we need him back winning soon
If you take all the 33/1 (or more) shots in the Ebor and back them all at 66/1 or more on Betfair (some at 800/1 apparently) and then back all the fancied runners with ordinary bookies or Betfair (whoever has the best odds), you will be able to create an under round book. I do not know how the commission works on Betfair but presumably it would be a couple of per cent. There were six horses priced 33/1 or more in the Ebor and three priced 25/1 – that is half the field as rags. If I get them all at 66/1 that is 13 per cent of the book. In terms of betting it would not be the biggest turnover race because the big players who put on thousands and tens of thousands bet almost exclusively on the top pattern races not twenty runner handicaps. There would have been good liquidity in the Ebor market because of lots of small punters. The fact that it was 33/1 on the track tells me that there was no significant gamble going on in the ring at York or hedging of off-course liabilities. A handful of Forum punters online and in the shops having £20/£30 on might see individual bookies clip their odds to avoid further liabilities but that would not filter back to the track; hence the 50/1 and 40/1 disappeared. Well done to all those who backed Litigant and well done (again) to Chelsea for putting it up. I did not do it myself as it had not been out this year (no form; taking fitness on trust) and if it had been laid out for the race, how come it was effectively unbacked as an outsider? Maybe the connections are not gamblers and it is the most valuable handicap in Europe so £171k prize money is nice.
I don't believe anyone said that EVERY 33/1 shot was available at 66/1. In fact one bookmaker, Stan James, had the horse at 66/1 and happily laid myself and three other people I know that price. In effect the oddschecker table would have been using best prices for the percentages and therefore would have been using 66/1 for the percentage value for this horse. Surely that is easy to understand, unless you are thick! The biggest gambling race of the entire season is a handicap so para 2 on QM's post is a complete load of bollocks also! Just saying!
When Chelsea put that horse up on Saturday 365 were quoting 50/1. Pretty sure a few on here took that
Talk me through this free bet mallarkey on Bet365. I've heard about it but never bothered to take it. How do you claim it and how do you find out the race it applies to? Cheers * edit: found it all on line now. Obviously it's the next C4 televised race, doh!
My own Bet365 account is empty currently but at around 11am Saturday I went with BetVictor who at that time were the joint biggest at 50-1 (not sure who else was) But once again, thanks to Chelsea for the info, it recovered my inglorious Goodwood losses and more besides
And the winner for Utter Bollocks of the Day is stick for this gem: There is a race run somewhere on Merseyside that is watched and gambled on around the planet... now what do they call it? Someone will remember...
