A bit disappointed that GH got beaten yesterday because i have been convinced that Jack Hobbs would beat him the next time they met but now I won't get as good a price! Jack Hobbs is my selection for the arc at this stage. Think he still has lots of improvement to come and could potentially be top class
Beefy is desperate to keep this “the Classic fillies are better than the colts” nonsense going. Nobody bit on the daily thread yesterday so he has posted it on the Arc thread. As Arabian Queen beat Golden Horn (rated 130) in the Juddmonte International, then Arabian Queen must now be rated more than 130. That makes her the top horse in Europe – better than Treve – so they should be supplementing her for the Arc. But hang on a second, she was beaten in the Nassau by Legatissimo, who must be a wonder horse to have done that, so she will win the Arc on the bridle – and we can get 40/1 with Stan James!
Merely tongue in cheek old boy, hence the 'whistle' But in all seriousness, the classic colts are nothing special otherwise why did the Derby winner not win half the track yesterday? I expected him to, I must say. The fact the Grey Gatsby ran the Horn to a similar distance as the Eclipse suggests they both ran up to their marks too. Clutching at straws to suggest otherwise, but go on ahead QM, your ratings views are never wrong. How daft of David Elsworth to run his 109 rated filly against the 130 rated Golden Horn yesterday...oh wait
I expected Golden Horn to win but I do not bet odds-on so I had nothing at risk. As I stated, if you are going to take Golden Horn and The Grey Gatsby as a valid form line, then the runner-up ran to 130 and that makes the winner the best horse in Europe. Neither of us believes that. Ratings are often wrong or there would be no bookmakers and every handicap would be a dead-heat because the weights are allotted according to the ratings. I do not create the ratings but I expect that when the handicappers assess the Juddmonte International they are going to conclude that it was one of the poorest in recent years from a form point of view. It was interesting today on Channel 4’s coverage when at the top of the programme Jim McGrath was asked for his opinion on what happened in the Juddmonte International and he said that there was a danger that it was being over analysed. I think there is definitely some truth in that. Just looking at how the race was run, the first observation has to be about the dreadful job done by Havlin on the pacemaker. They paid £75k to put a moderate handicapper in the race and the jockey missed the kick. I know it is very easy to say with hindsight that Sylvestre de Sousa did the right thing by being up with the pace – he was in front until the pacemaker took it off him then stayed second. Havlin then went off way too far in front so that he was completely ignored by most of the runners. The main bunch, including Golden Horn, were not really being stretched and it appeared this had most affect on the favourite. Perhaps that is why he laboured in the last furlong when one would have expected him to pick off a much inferior filly and win going away? We will not know until he runs again. That is racing – they are not machines and sometimes it goes wrong.
Once Havlin missed the kick he had to push the pacemaker along which set him alight and completely negated the point of having him in the race. Not sure what happened to Golden Horn, maybe the sticky ground negated his finishing kick but I would still expect him to pick up a filly of that ability
Maybe he run flat but people must have seen a different Eclipse to me. After getting a soft lead where Frankie dictated his own fractions he took an awful long time to get going. That's when I knew stamina, not speed was his forte. He's getting beat at Leopardstown too imho
What are the real chances of good or better ground for the Irish Champion Stakes? Not great, I think. So there will be no Gleneagles, no Golden Horn; and Free Eagle will be left with a penalty kick – unless Arabian Queen shows up!
Fingers crossed anyway, it generally comes up good ground bizarrely enough considering the Irish weather If it doesn't old boy Cirrus could well bring the house down as he's also mooted for it too.
They are horses and sometimes they do funny things. That's the best summary of the week. There doesn't have to be a scientific or statistical way of analysing every performance because they aren't robotic- they are animals.
Had a small dabble on B365s 33/1 FOUND for this. As short as 14/1 elsewhere. Apart from Treve there's not much I'd be too worried about. These 3 yo fillies are certainly looking half decent, whilst there's big question marks over the colts. I also don't see what else Ballydoyle will run in it, so should get a run at least. The grounds likely to go against Free Eagle, who I'm a big fan of. At the price, I think she's looking a class bet I'll repeat though, TREVE is looking a moral for this if she's lining up in the same form she's been there the last 2 Octobers.
I really liked Found from the moment she won the Prix Marcel Boussac on Arc day last year as she looked like a middle distance filly (especially with her pedigree). I backed her ante-post for The Oaks and she did not even show up. O’Brien has been messing around with her this season and I would not have a penny on her for the Arc on the strength of winning a three horse race. I will be delighted if she proves me wrong on October 4th but I am not holding my breath as she probably will not even show up!
Just said on ATR the Arcs her aim. They've nothing else for it sure. I'm not saying she'll win but she's certainly a fair bet at the prices and with dig in the ground you can rule out plenty above her, including Free Eagle. Take Treve out and there's little to beat imo
Unless I am mistaken this weekend forms the last chance for a horse to break through from 25/1 and more into, say, the first seven in the betting. Although he did not meet much Flintshire was impressive in the Sword Dancer at Saratoga and did finish a fairly good second to Treve last year. The other outsider who could advance his chances is Karaktar who runs in the 'Niel' and, I think, started favourite for the Jockey Club. Thoughts please however everything apart from Treve seems to be running for a place.
Events at Leopardstown this weekend could see one or two disappear from the Arc betting or perhaps see 40/1 Legatissimo shorten. Short of some unfortunate mishap befalling Treve on Sunday, I do not see there being much change to the Arc betting as a result of the Arc Trials Day races. History tells us that the Prix Niel is rarely run as a serious horse race, with most of the home contingent having had a summer break and turning up to be fine-tuned for the big event. As the two market leaders, New Bay and Erupt, are already in the top seven of the Arc betting, one or both of them might be a bigger price on Sunday night. In the Prix Vermeille, there will be great expectations of Treve; however, she was beaten in the race last year so the three year olds cannot be totally ruled out and the four principal ones are not even quoted in the Arc betting. The Aga Khan’s main Arc contending filly is seen to be Dolniya and she meets Postponed in the Prix Foy, so a convincing win could see either of those shorten in the market.
I have already had a 'nibble' at Postponed. Dolniya and Flintshire seem to take turns at coming out on top. Anyway, back to Facebook where I am having a discussion/arguement with some right wing bum about Donald Trump appearing on stage at a Tea Party meeting with REM's 'It's The End Of The World As We Know It' playing. About as stupid as another Republican, Ronald Reagan I think, appearing with Bruce Springsteen's 'Born In The USA' being played. Do these 'dicks' never listen to lyrics or check out the band's politics?
I backed legatissimo a few weeks ago at 50/1 if she turns up you at least get a good run for your money and a place is very realistic! But wait and see if she goes but at that price it was worthy taking a small gamble
What is going on; Karaktar withdrawn from 'Niel' but price reduction on Betfair. There would seem to be no ground problems! That is now two 'targets' the colt has been taken out of. Is this a 'plot'???? Late edit; must be going for an easier trial in the Prix du Prince d'Orange. just had a look at the past winners; f.....n' hell!!!!! Equida confirms my suspicions.
Initial bookmaker reaction to the result of the Irish Champion Stakes: Golden Horn available at 8/1 and 10/1 in one place but generally 7/1. Found now a best priced 14/1 but as short as 8/1 in places. Free Eagle now out to 20/1 in one place but generally 12/1 or 10/1.
