I think there's every chance he'll avoid both the Champion Stakes and The Arc if the grounds to soft. I think they'll see how it is at the time. It isn't always soft in France that time of year, but it usually is
Yes. Funny old weather these days. When I went (when Danedream won) it was like a mid summer day and the time was fast by 6.01 secs Bloody hot today and it's getting hotter
Can see why Treve is fancied for a historic 3rd Arc given the lack of depth in the 3 year old division thus far. Obviously Golden Horn and Jack Hobbs are by some way the leading three year olds in the UK but we won't have a clear idea of where they stand until they mix it with the 4 year olds, Free Eagle and Grey Gatsby to name a couple. Their form with Australia, who I personally think was very, very good, should set some good benchmarks for measurement!
It was warm last year on Arc day but I do remember it raining quite heavily during the weekend. Would love to go across again this year but with baby on the way think it will be a few years before I get that privilege again
The bookmakers do not appear to have been too impressed by the Grand Prix de Paris. Winner Erupt is still available at 33/1, the same odds as runner-up Ampere. Hat-trick seeking Treve is still generally a 5/2 chance. Ladbrokes are clearly taking a view about Golden Horn as they are a stand-out 5/1 when he is generally 7/2.
Erupt available at 16/1 and The Arc has been quoted as the target. Prix Niel then on to the Prix de L'Arc de Triomphe. Form of Grand Prix de Paris means his form is within a couple of lengths of the first and second in the Derby so 16/1 is a fair price.
Having not looked at the Arc betting for the last couple of weeks, I thought it was time to see what difference recent races, like the King George VI & Queen Elizabeth Stakes, had made. Treve’s odds continue to contract, with 5/2 only available in a few places. The Prix Vermeille must be her next port of call. The obvious lack of change was King George absentee Golden Horn, still best-priced 5/1 with Ladbrokes but curiously as short as 3/1 and 7/2 in many other places. At least 14 bookies on Oddschecker appear to be of the view that the Derby winner is definitely going to show up on 4th October. I do not share their confidence. Of the horses that did show up for the King George, the winner Postponed and the nose second Eagle Top are both available at 25/1. Cumani has already suggested that Postponed may go straight to Longchamp as he cannot find a suitable Group 1 target in Europe beforehand. Right now, I think that Postponed could be a good each-way bet in a race where viable alternatives to favourite Treve are becoming fewer and fewer. It would appear that plans for third favourite Jack Hobbs (trading at 8/1) consist of either the Prix Niel on Arc Trials Day or the Dubai Duty Free at Newbury. The former would give him course experience but either way he would have a Group 1 penalty. 10/1 shot New Bay has disappeared off the radar. Is he going to the Prix Niel? Grand Prix de Paris winner Erupt is still generally 12/1, as is Free Eagle, for whom no plan has been indicated; whilst Karpino and Time Test can be backed at 25/1. There has to be a possibility that the field for the last Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe before Longchamp closes for redevelopment will not feature the maximum runners. Is Criquette Head-Maarek’s mare scaring off rivals from Europe’s richest prize?
QM11;Thanks for round up including Postponed who won the King George. I was in Germany the last two weeks and ignored (boozing) the race. As I have been unable to access on youtube please advise how race was run and if you consider 20/1 a fair price. I agree that Treve may reduce the field to about twelve plus a few pacemakers/outsders. According to Paris Turf the plan for New Bay is the Group 2 Prix Guillaume d'Ornano at Deauville later this month then straight to the Prix de L'Arc de Triomphe.
Don't know what to make of that! Eagle Top looks to have gone a neck ahead however effort from rear too much? Both 'clear' of third and Betfair would suggest Eagle Top a 'no-show' in the Arc. Depending on the Arc field 20/1 Postponed could be an acceptable price. I suppose I have to accept the cliche that there is no such thing as a weak Group 1. Back to Oddschecker to judge what will actually arrive at Longchamp at the start of October. Already have Treve, Jack Hobbs and Erupt running for me so will probably have an interest in Postponed. Thanks for clip .
Thanks for that titbit of information, Kenny. I am surprised that it was not reported over in the UK (unless I missed it). Normally the trainer heads for the Prix Niel but as it is only a Group 2 as well, he may as well take a trip to the seaside for a ten furlong race and wait until the Arc itself to attempt twelve furlongs with the Prix Du Jockey Club winner.
Just over eight weeks until my favourite flat race of the year. Thought about making a 'comeback' at Longchamp this year however memories of the behaviour by 'my' fellow 'British' soon banished this from my bonce. Anyway I'm back in 'Gay Paree' in November for the 'jumps' at Auteuil. Can anything stop Treve from becoming the first horse to win the great race in three consecutive years? Will Golden Horn run? How much has Jack Hobbs improved since Epsom? Is the Prix du Jockey Club form really that crap? Is there a decent French three year old colt? Even at this late date can Andre Fabre unearth another Rail Link? Thoughts/comments please!!
I think one thing for sure with Jack Hobbs is that any slightly softer going in France won't concern connections. Pretty sure that Gosden was more worried about fast ground than anything else so Jack Hobbs has that going for him as well as the fact that connections feel he is still improving and will make a 4 year old. Golden Horn done everything right so far but missed the King George because of soft ground, so it depends on how the Paris turf looks as to whether he would run. Treve has relished anything bar fast ground and remains the one they all have to beat, but 3 Arcs is a massive ask. It's intriguing for sure, but far from a clear picture as to who will run.
The Eclipsing of Golden Horn (possibly by the soft ground, possibly something amiss?) at York had a predictable effect on the Arc betting. Those desperate to back the Derby winner can now have 10/1 with Ladbrokes and Betfred/totesport; and the favourite Treve is now a best-priced 9/4. Has anybody seen or heard anything about Free Eagle of late? His victory in the Prince Of Wales’s Stakes at Ascot is not looking like much in terms of form now with The Grey Gatsby (33/1 for the Arc) beaten twice, Western Hymn stuffed in the Eclipse, Criterion beaten at York and The Corsican beaten at Goodwood. He holds an entry in the Irish Champion Stakes but he also held an entry in the Juddmonte International.
Another year, another good one gets rolled. Treve to make it 3? I wouldn't be betting my privates on her.
Derby form getting ripped a new one yesterday with the winner getting beat by the Nassau third. Classic fillies looking different class
