Coming from a gambling background and having a deep passion for Celtic, and Scottish football in general, I always find myself around this time of year looking for some value in the outright markets. As much as I think Celtic are a wee bit of value to win the SPL outright (17/20 with Sportingbet) I just can't bring myself to have a lump on an event that will take a year to settle at such short odds. Ally McCoist taking over at Rangers is a huge unknown at this point, he has promised to abandon Smith's defensive mentality - but that 'if we don't concede we don't lose' mentality has probably brought Rangers the last three SPL titles - being a bit more adventurous could be risky. I believe that if Lennon continues where he left off and manages to get the same amount of points this season as were acquired last season (Celtic's highest points total in 6 years) then Celtic will be taking home the league trophy. Anyway, as tempting as that 17/20 is, it's not for me with the big unknown of Ally - on to try finding the proper value! Scottish Football, being Scottish football, is generally ignored south of the border - this has the great side effect of leaving some gaping value in markets which some half arsed southern odds compiler has put about 10 minutes work into - an immediately obvious example of this 'half arsedness' is the SPL Top Goalscorer market. For some bizarre reason Omar Demari, the Israeli striker who was recently involved in a failed bid from Celtic, has been listed as 5th favourite to be the top Scottish goalscorer next season by three betting firms - despite the fact he signed for Hapoel Tel Aviv two weeks ago and has never played in Scotland. 'Good!' I hear you cry, it's lazy odds compilers who make me money. Looking through the top goalscorer market it is obviously filled with a lot of non triers. The first two in the market, Gary Hooper at 3/1 and Nikica Jelavic at 7/2 are obvious choices - I am pretty certain that (bar no transfer interference) those two will be up there come the end of the season. Both have great goals to game ratios and both prices to me are big, and I'll explain why as I go along. As we go past the big two it becomes apparent very fast that actually there are very few players who can actually compete with them. Third in the market is Anthony Stokes available generally at 8/1, which for me is a tad short but not far off the pace. Stokes certainly has an eye for goal but his relationship with Neil Lennon is reportedly an uneasy one, with rumours of recent bust ups and Lennon's tendency to drop him for big games. For me there are a lot of negatives that make the price short, and I wouldn't go near at 8/1. Next we have David Goodwille at best price 17/2 with Victor Chandler. Goodwillie is a danger in the market, we've no idea where he is going - literally. There is a very good chance that he is going to England, there is also a very good chance he may end up at Rangers, who have had several bids already knocked back for the Dundee Utd player. His 17 goals in 37 games last season is by no means spectacular but was enough to see him finish third top goal scorer - but if he signs for Rangers then you would surely expect that tally to increase. For me David Goodwillie is the single reason I have held off having a bet, I am waiting to see where he goes. If he goes to Rangers then he is massive at 17/2, if he leaves for England or elsewhere then other selections in the market become very interesting and I'll explain why very soon. Hold off on a bet for now until this situation becomes more clear. So next we have Kyle Lafferty, the Ulster Gazelle. Useless, never going to win it. Despite the fact his form improved towards the end of the last season I simply wouldn't touch the 14/1. He'd need to have a dramatic improvement in form to be a contender, his 11 goals in 31 games last season as a striker playing for the Champions is testament to that. Further down we have Georgios Samaras at 20/1. The less said about Samaras the better, his 3 goals in 22 games last season is ridiculous for a striker. He shouldn't be in the book. John Sutton is next in the book - the recently signed Hearts player is decent but off the pace and the 10 goals he scored last season is about right. Can take this guy out of the running and the 20/1 on offer is a tiny price. Next it's Steven Naismith - basically he is Rangers second goal threat and the 20/1 on offer generally is about the right price. He might be a contender, but probably not. Now, we come to the most interesting player in the book for me. Kris Commons scored 24 league goals last season, 13 for Derby and 11 for Celtic (in 14 games for Celtic). If Commons scored all those goals in Scotland then he would have won the top goalscorer award. Yet here he is at 20/1 (Paddy Power and William Hill) to win next year's. It's a little bit understandable given that he is a midfielder - but his form surely says the 20/1 is massive. Apart from his goals from open play (indead mostly screamers) he was also handed the role of Celtic penalty taker towards the end of the season. Certainly Samaras isn't getting that role back and both Hooper and Stokes have missed a few, I feel Commons will hold on to this role. Once we go past Commons there literally are very few other contenders in the book. We've got the Shaun Maloneys and the David Healys who simply won't win it, and everyone else are just space fillers. So to summarise, for me there are six triers: Hooper 3/1 Jelavic 7/2 Stokes 8/1 Goodwillie 17/2 Naismith 20/1 Commons 20/1 That's a 78% book between them. While I am advising to hold off on betting for the moment (until the Goodwillie situation becomes clear) I believe I can currently knock three of those out of the book for being too short, as it stands. Stokes, Goodwillie and Naismith are less likely to win than their odds suggest. That leaves Hooper 3/1, Jelavic 7/2 and Commons at 20/1. My money, barring no transfer activity, will be going on Commons each way 1/4 1,2,3 at 20/1 with William Hill. While I struggle to believe that a midfielder can outscore Jelavic and Hooper (who have great goals to game ratios), I can't look past the 5/1 for him to place in the top three. Give it a few weeks, jump on Goodwillie if he goes to Rangers, and wait to see if a Mr Kenny Miller comes back - but baring those scenarios have a nibble at the 20/1 Commons each way.
No but seriously, Commons is a good shout at 20/1 , especially with the amount of Penalties Celtic are awarded especially against Aberdeen. TBH, I can't see Goodwilliam at Rangers year and feel that if Jelavic is fit for the season, he'll end up top scorer. (even though I feel he isn't an out and out striker) Another outside bet Mick is surely Lafferty who was in great form towards the end of the season.
Surely, if Goodwillie signs for Rangers, his odds will immediately shorten and you won't get him at anything like 17/2.
Can't have Lafferty at all, he'd have to change into a different player to be in the running. One month of form towards the end of season can't make up for being awful for three years. That's why you have to hit the bookies as soon as he signs, the odds will only shorten once they see money going on and there will always be one firm who are lax.
They must've read your article. Commons is now 12/1 at William Hill although he's still available at 20/1 at Paddy Power.
Commons is a fantastic shout at those odds. But, assuming he stays uninjured, my bet for top scorer would be Jelavic - 7/2 isn't bad at all
