Off Topic Mafia VIII - Mafia vs Zombies

Sorry I don't get the maths.

If you select 3 at random out of 18, how does that equate to a 65% chance of having at least 1 mafia in the lynch???

When did we even learn anything of actual tangible benefit in the day 1 lynch voting pattern anyway?

As I see it, only whilst it's random, we're more likely to see the mafia object to it, as they have potentially the most to lose, as if we do hit, we've wiped out a third of their number, with a pure random shot. They'll want top avoid that possibility and steer the group into selecting 'popular' day 1 lynch victims *waves at RHC*

 

the maths are permuations calculations. probabilities basically.

We've only learned something from the voting patterns if somone is actually tagged and has to defend.

 

@Swarbs so self-voting a.k.a. "Gerrezing" is allowed without risk of ebola?

 

I don't see the benefit to putting up 3 at random, as opposed to the entire group having a chance of the lynch.

I think we'll learn more from those seeking to steer us away from the idea.

 

This. Need to check its ok before everyone does it

 

I think a 3 way is better as mafia will probably accept the risk of 25% in a 4 way.

I must say as I wrote that piece above my view changed and I realised it probably makes mathematical sense to have one vote each, as it gives you slightly more chances of lynching scum. However it gives you 0% of getting any scum reads on people, which is a big negative, and also relies on everyone playing ball and voting correctly.

If we screw this up and someone gets lynched outright then guaranteed the person who screwed up will get lynched tomorrow, and I bet you that there's a 99% chance that person will be town as mafia etc will never make such a stupid move, it will be a townie trying to do the right thing and screwing up. That way we waste TWO days' worth of lynches, which has happened often in these mafia games...

 

If the worst was to happen and he recruited a Mafia, the Mafia would need the cops help to find the zombie anyway

Nine ****ers by the time I logged on!!!

(eleven by the time I caught up )

Bobby should be choosing three randoms for the lynch IMO

If Bobby leads then it’s possible. We attack anyone not falling in line. Can’t see what other gains there could be though, one vote each favours the bad guys.

Difference in this game is we have a known innocent who can dictate what happens so why not play the better odds…? Putting three or four up offers a better chance of finding bad guys than one vote each. Having the known innocent eliminates the problem of choosing who those three or four are.






Happy to go along with this suggested strategy of voting for yourself, its some I often do on day one anyway

I vote Gerrez

However, if we all do this, doesn't it mean the inactives not only escape attention but also the potential lynch...?

 

I must admit Tobes I see it the opposite way to you.

I think mathematically we have more chance of lynching scum if we do the one vote each thing (assuming everyone takes part which is unlikely), however I think the mafia won't try to change the strategy as there's only 3/18 = 16.7% chance they'll be lynched, and the SZ and SK each only have 1/18 = 5.6% of being lynched. I can't see the scum roles having any problem with the one vote strategy.

I understand the concern that if there are no mafia in the 3 way then we learn nothing, but I really think the scum teams will risk the one vote each strategy as the odds are in their favour to not be lynched.

 

Worthless post.
Am busy at work, just posting to say hi, so we dont eventually get a "Bodanki, is being quiet", then me going "No I am here" followed by a "funny how you popped up when we mentioned your silence."

So this is a pre emptive "SHHHHHH", just so I have a whole bag of "SHHHHHHH" with your names on it.

 

Think I agree with Tennis.
With such long odds on getting a mafia, they are unlikely to intervene through fear of incriminating themselves at this early stage.
Picking 3 is the way to go, its just picking the right 3.

 

I'd prefer the three or four (chosen by bobby) for the lynch option. I'm happy to go with the one vote each but I think voting for ourselves is stupid. The inactives completely escape involvement and potential lynching. Basically, the bad guys can juts hide.

 

Fixed

 

The problem is, in the likely scenario we randomly lynch an innocent (and really, even if we lynch a mafia/Z/SK) what do we do tomorrow? Look at voting patterns? Everyone's vote will have been instructed, nothing to learn there. Look at posts, who attempted to guide, who aligned with who? The only thing we'll have to go on are the discussions of this plan which will tell us very little and probably descend into the blame game, nothing else will have happened and the mafia will have been able to skate through effortlessly just waiting to see where the random hand of fate points. Look at who died in the night? That'll probably be what little information we have and it will be limited, safe targets which will tell us nought will be picked for day 1.

Mafia for my money is a game of information and time, we need the former before we run out of the latter, this plan will see us lose time and gain no information, it would only leave us hoping blindly on a random number generator to be kind to us and the detectives to get lucky be able to share their information with us. If not, we will find ourselves in the same spot tomorrow with nothing gained.

 

@Gerrez

The plan is supposedly to do this and then late on switch to people who don't take part, which basically means late vote switching to go for inactives... Rather than just sticking a few inactives up for the vote and seeing if we get a reaction in the first place! This seems like a ridiculous plan to me...

 

I vote Mikey

 

Who knows **** all (at this stage) so it changes nothing day one

 

Can we have a vote table?

 

I suppose we would know his motives are clear, and that he isn't trying to trick us or lead us down an erroneous path.
But yeah, he still knows next to **** all, same as us.

 

Keep chatting **** people. Anyway, if you want to go for a 3 to lynch plan, ACS, MIKEY and GERREZ have been picked out from my random generator.

 

I am down with that.
Seems a god a 3 as any.
The only two known innocents to me are myself and you, and neither of us are in that 3, so im G T ****ing G

 

Must have missed that bit whilst reading eleven pages Still seems daft to me but happy to go with the flow