Off Topic Mafia VIII - Mafia vs Zombies

@Swarbs

VALLEY. I'm on my phone.

 

**** it. I vote RHC

 

Why? Do you need to tip your mafia buddies off early doors mate?

 

I've noticed big fat Obi has been at the tags. I **** off in front of foreign frogs apparently

 

Orrrr maybe the ones suggesting and/or backing the plan to all vote 1 each then switch late to inactives are a team of 'active' mafia trying to look like town? Just a thought.

 

Hell, I wanted to vote for No Chance.

I VOTE SEBB'S CAMPAIGN MANAGER

Catch everyone later, after 9pm and see what carnage we managed.

 

Not me. I'm mentioned more than you are. ACS maybe.

 

Right this voting for ones self is starting to pick up pace.

Funky

I'm off to prep for glossing, worst job in the world! I'll pop back later to see what the hap is.

 

Not me. I'm mentioned more than you are. ACS maybe.

 

I take it you're talking to me. It's either you or Albert. I don't mind, you two are creative with the tags, enjoy reading them.

 

Probably a crazy idea but
obi wan

 

I'll be in a meeting after work until 6:30-7:00 so just looking for confirmation

 

Sorry to be pedantic but it's 13/18 * 12/17 * 11/16. The 13 becomes 12 in the second part as you've taken the one innocent out of the pool already, so now there are 17 people left and 12 of them are innocent. That's how I got to my 35%.

Look I must be honest I think it's really silly to have everyone up for lynch at one vote each, it only benefits scum and much more likely to hurt town. I'll go along with it if everyone is keen but I studied stats and work in that field so I'm going to at least try to fight my corner here and explain my reasoning.

Astro makes a valid point that mafia can swing who is up in the 3 way or whatever, but if the Cop decides or even if he uses Random.org we have a much better chance of getting reaction from scum than if we do one vote each imho.

Chance of lynching scum if we all have one vote is 5/18 = 28%, chance of lynching town is 13/18 = 72%. Even worse is that there are 6 town roles (excl Cop) so we have a BIGGER chance of lynching a town role (6/18 = 33%) than scum, come on guys that is just stupid.

If we have a random three way tie our chance of having at least one scum in there is 65% as calculated in my previous post. Yes there no guarantee that he will get lynched (so only 65/3 = 22% chance) but the idea is to see if mafia scramble to save him.

EDIT:
OK granted if it is SK or SZ no one is going to come to his rescue, so perhaps it is an idea to go for the one vote each option. I'm just concerned that town roles have more chance of being lynched than scum. Every game so far we've lost key town roles early, I'd hate that to happen again.

But like I said I'll go along with the one vote each if majority want it, I just want to put my thoughts out there. Bottom line is we need to look for reactions, we can't just play the odds and go for one vote each night until the scum roles pick us all off. I'll vote Sir Tennisball for now as that's the current strategy, I just hope our journo finds some good info out tonight as we don't even have a detective yet.

I just think we're giving mafia a free pass to recruit and kill, and not putting them under pressure at all. We're going to get to tomorrow and unless the journo finds a scum role we are going to have zero info to act on, not a good place to be...

 

yes. i should have taken one off if i were looking the other way i'd leave 5 up and thats where i made my error.

 

Unless you made the error deliberately?

 

Mafia don't need to stick their heads out day 1, we'll be confused and chaotic enough on our own.

Not convinced about this plan but there is little better to do, it's effectively a no-lynch that someone happens to die at the end of and that's alright with me I suppose..

Mikey.

 

This is never going to work, firstly there is no way everyone will go along with it, secondly we find out nothing for tomorrow. This idea is being far too easily accepted but surely it's just going to create confusion in the last half hour or so when we realise everyone hasn't voted and we try and shuffle our votes around and do something late on. Perfect conditions for mafia to have a random innocent lynched and have the cover of trying to sort out a failed plan.

I vote RHC

 

I agree with Tennisball and let cop choose 4 at random. But I will leave my 'selfie' vote for now as about to have 4 hour meeting at work.

 

so i'd admit to it... sure...

 

Actually **** that we'll only end up in the same spot tomorrow crossing our fingers for help from the detectives, 3 should be up for the vote - doesn't matter much which 3 but that's the best way to get info and the best odds.