Satisfactory prep run for Treve. Jockey had to get to work briefly but then allowed her to coast home, going away. Pretty fast time for a prep run. My only concern is that the weather here has been scorching. I don't know what she trains on but she won't want any fast work on firm ground. I would still wait to back her and risk the price shortening.
When I quoted Free Eagle, I did so because he is still entered for the Eclipse; therefore, could run (i.e. ‘possible’). With regard to the Prince Of Wales’s Stakes, since it became a Group 1 race in 2001, only Rakti (2004) has won it on seasonal debut – after which he was beaten favourite in the Eclipse. In 2013, The Fugue tried to do it having missed her prep-race but finished third to race-fit Al Kazeem.
I never knew Rakti won the PoW, thought he was an out-and-out miler. Just checking his stats though, his first run in the UK was in the 2003 PoW when he finished 2nd to Nayef at 50/1. Won the Champion Stakes at Newmarket later that year before finishing 2nd in the Hong Kong Cup. He won the 2004 PoW (on seasonal debut as QM said) but I always remeber him as a miler and he won the QEII in 2004 before hosing up in the 2005 Lockinge. Nice horse indeed, but he needed to hear his hooves rattle off the ground.
I think Jack Hobbs is a bit of value at 10/1, take out Golden Horn (who is unlikely to run in the arc) and you have a winner of both derby's by 5 lengths. Still inexperienced so likely to improve and seems to be able to go on most ground
Could not agree more. Trainer has stated that JH will be rested until Prix Niel and then, hopefully, on to the 'Arc'. I would suggest that the price will be no bigger than 10/1 with the UK bookie's on raceday. I feel that a trainer's or owner's stated plans are one of the most important points to be taken into account when thinking about an ante post punt. A similiar situation applies with Treve. She will now be 'put away' before being prepared for the Prix Vermeille three weeks before the 'Arc'. Should Treve win the Vermeille in a similiar manner to her win in the Prix de St Cloud on Sunday she could be about even money or slightly odds against with the UK bookmakers. Christ knows what price she could be with the PMU on the day of the race; a mini 'Deep Impact' scenario comes to mind. I too have my doubts about Golden Horn's participation in the 'Arc' despite the owner's comments immediately after The Derby. Am I arguing against my earlier statements? I feel GH may take in the King George, the International at York then may move on to one or both the 'Champion' stakes if the ground is suitable. He could then sweep up the dollars on the firm ground at Keeneland. We are all in the lap of the gods! Mia San Mia.
Are you in effect saying CH that, if Golden Horn were to turn up, he wins? Or do you think JH can reverse the Derby form?
I don't think Golden Horn will turn up, likely soft ground over 1m 4f will be too much of a stretch. With the weight for age I would expect Golden Horn to win if he showed up but I don't think he will and therefore I would be backing Jack Hobbs at around the 10/1 mark as they have clearly shown they are far better than any 3 year olds we have seen in Europe this year.
As far as Jack Hobbs is concerned, if you compare his Epsom form to his run in Ireland he actually beat every rival behind him at Epsom even further, so you could make the case that he's improving faster than the other 3yos. Which would support his trainers claims that he's a slow developing colt and will continue to get better as he gets older. I too wouldn't expect Golden Horn to run in the Arc if soft is in the going description, I just don't see connections wanting to run on that ground, particularly if he has an unbeaten record to maintain. The Arc is also a very risky race to run any unbeaten horse in, as it's an unfair race, where draw bias plays a big role. Jack Hobbs on the other hand has been beaten, and his connections intentions aren't to pack him off to stud at the end of the year, so I think they'll be a lot more willing to risk his reputation. Golden Horns owner has already hinted that he'll be sent to stud at the end of the season, so I think they'll race him with a lot more caution, especially if he is still unbeaten. So at this stage of the 2, id agree that Jack Hobbs makes a lot more appeal, as he's a guaranteed runner, will probably be an even better horse on good or softer ground, and has plenty of scope to keep improving
I've just thought of something aswell guys before you go taking ante post prices, about Golden Horn or Jack Hobbs. As Bayern Kenny says about Treves price going crazy short on the PMU. Think what sort of prices you might get about the 2 Gosden horses on the day if you back them on the PMU?
Strong chance Jack Hobbs might be coupled with other horse(s) for PMU purposes. And even if Godolphin don’t have anything else given their history they could purchase a leading fancy close to ‘tapes up’. My old fave, Time Test, is as low as 16’s for the Arc. His next race though could be over a mile.
KS - Astute reasoning. I was at Longchamp for the 2006 'Arc' when we had the PMU freakshow with the Japanese plunging from 10.30 onwards on Deep Impact. I do not feel this will happen to the same extent should Treve win the Prix Vermeille fairly comfortably however there could be a strange look to the oncourse prices. I am not sure but I think the PMU opened at 1:10 and closed at about 1:5 on Deep Impact. The result of the 'plunge' was that the second and third favourites (Hurrican Run and Shirocco) were available at about 70-80:10 as oposed to just over 2/1 with the UK bookmakers. Looking at this year's Arc and assuming a victory in the Prix Niel for Jack Hobbs it could be about 3/1 to 4/1 should Golden Horn be absent or 6/1 should GH take part. Treve would certainly be 'odds on' on the PMU should she win the Prix Vermeille so I could see a PMU return of about 5/1 for JH even without GH in the race. 'You pays your money and you takes your chance'
It is possible SBC, but not sure Godolphin would buy one for the Arc when they already have a contender. As far as the PMU price is concerned I think you'll get a lot bigger than that BK, aslong as Treve wins the Prix Vermille I can see JH on the day being between 8 and 10/1 on the PMU. You have to remember the trial race he will run in is always run at a very slow gallop, as it's only used to give the horses a run out on the track before Arc day, so he's unlikely to win by a wide margin.
SBC - I could be wrong but I think you can now back an individual horse on the PMU despite multiple entries by owner/trainer. The possibility of 'coupling' does however remain. KS - Apart from Karpino (Deutsches Derby - 6 July) I think my ante post betting on the 'Arc' will take a short rest. You may be correct about the day of race PMU price for JH however if vou broke down the Longchamp crowd on 'Arc' day I would suspect that there are close to 40% or even more from the UK and Ireland. I am aware that the prices reflect all PMU bets from the many bistros/brasseries throughout Paris and the rest of France but these are usually in fairly small sums with the large wagers being made at the track. I therefore surmise that the 'main' UK hope will hold it's price pretty well! Who knows? Mia San Mia
I dunno BK, I'd say PM betting is about 80-20 in French favour atleast, I wouldn't just assume that all French punters sitting at home are small stakes players. But we will see come the day how the prices are
I have invested at 10/1 post the Irish Derby. If your judgement is correct I will certainlay up my punt on the PMU (gagnant + place) on raceday. Good luck anyway!
If Treve does actually show up on Arc Sunday (win, lose or draw in the Prix Vermeille), I expect that she is going to be a very short-priced favourite on the PMU because (a) half of France will back her without any regard to the odds; and (b) the deductions from the PMU pool – at around 24% – are much greater than tax ‘deductions’ with British bookmakers. If you place your bet with a British bookmaker and stipulate “PMU” on your slip (assuming that your bookmaker accepts PMU bets), you will be paid out at the PMU returns that are declared post race and these are subject to coupling (Écurie). Those of us that did the PMU in 1986 when John McCririck famously told British punters that the PMU would pay better than the 2/1 being offered by British bookies got our fingers burned when Dancing Brave returned 11/10, as the British bookies went over to Paris and hedged their liabilities. A distinction should be made here between the two Pari Mutuel betting systems. The Pari Mutuel Urbain (PMU) pool is the ‘off course’ betting whilst the Pari Mutuel Hippodrome (PMH) pool is the ‘on course’ betting. In racecards, the coupling of horses in indicated by the letter ‘E’ (for Écurie) followed by an ordinal (1, 2, 3 etc) if there is more than one instance of coupling in the race. Coupling only applies to Simple bets (the win and place pool). As it is just as likely to be soft ground at Ascot on Champions’ Day, I do not see why Mr Oppenheimer would not go to Longchamp with Golden Horn as the money is better and the race more prestigious.
