The weekend’s action at Epsom has seen some rather predictable updates to the ante post betting: 3/1 Treve 8/1 Golden Horn 10/1 New Bay 14/1 Duramente 20/1 Dolniya, Free Eagle, Harp Star 25/1 Jack Hobbs, Karpino, Al Kazeem, Queen’s Jewel, War Dispatch Curiously, I cannot find the Oaks winner Qualify quoted by any bookmaker. Neither of the Epsom Classic winners hold an entry but I guess their owners could afford one. I would not advise anyone to have a penny on the Japanese ‘Derby’ winner Duramente as I read the other day that the trainer is not bringing to Europe this year.
Well Royal Ascot did not have much of an impact on the Arc betting... The front three in the betting have not changed: 3/1 Treve, 7/1 Golden Horn, 10/1 New Bay. Irish Derby favourite Jack Hobbs is now a 14/1 chance whilst Free Eagle is 16/1 after his lucky Prince Of Wales’s success (seems the bookies were not that impressed as he was 20/1 beforehand). If you want to back a non-runner and wait until October to throw the slip away, Japan’s Duramente is still 16/1. There seems to be quite a difference of opinion about Hardwicke Stakes winner Snow Sky as he is 25/1 with Stan James but the best elsewhere is 14/1. Those that think Time Test can go all the way to the top can have 25/1 in a couple of places. Amongst the Ascot losers, Eagle Top and The Grey Gatsby are 33/1, as is Ectot. Coronation Stakes runner-up Found is 28/1 if you believe that O’Brien is going to wake up before October. Telescope is 50/1 if you think he is good enough to show up.
About 14 weeks until the race of the year. Not many more bullets to be fired unless Andre Fabre does a 'Rail Link'!! As 'Juddmonte' do not seem to have any other top chances I think Snow Sky could be a 'goer' in the Arc. A great deal of improvement required but could be another Singspiel or Pilsudski for 'Stoute'. Outside the first three in the betting the remainder could well be a mixture of non runners and ten furlong types. Think I have convinced myself to enter the fray at 25/1!! My other interest at the moment would be Karpino however I will wait to see the Deutsches Derby at the start of July. Quite likely to be able to watch the race and still get the 25/1 on offer from Hills!
Aside from Prix du Jockey Club winner New Bay, I am not sure what Juddmonte (i.e. Khalid Abdullah) has in France but if it were to be dry again at Longchamp like last year, I would be pretty certain that Flintshire would go there.
Sorry; my mind suffered a blow out on the owner of New Bay. Pictured other colours!! Early night for me I think!!
At present, the ones I'm interested in are Treve, Golden Horn and Time Test. At the prices I think Time Test at 25/1 is by far the best value but would love to see Treve do the hat trick
Not that I'd have a bet now, but il keep faith with Jack Hobbs at 14/1 and say he can improve a lot on rain softened ground in France. I think he's been running on ground that's been to quick for him yet has still emerged with a lot of credit. He's also such a big horse, who is still yet to fill out his frame, so I can see him improving a lot come the end of the year.
We may find out quite a lot with regard to Jack Hobbs at The Curragh on Saturday evening. I do not expect the track to be riding very quick and the nature of the course will suit him more than Epsom. Looking at the ante post betting (Jack Hobbs currently odds on), I do not see there being a very big field and I would expect that at least half the runners will come from Ballydoyle – there is plenty of prize money and some of those Coolmore blue-bloods need to start collecting some to pay for their board and lodgings. I would be in no hurry to back Time Test at 25/1 because he has yet to prove that he can cut the mustard against proper Group 1 horses. I would rather wait and see him run in a Group 1 (and win it) and take 10/1 post race. On Saturday morning you could have had 33/1 Telescope for the Arc but his abysmal running in the Group 2 Hardwicke Stakes pushed him out to 50/1. I note that Prix de Diane winner Star Of Seville is not quoted in the Arc betting except on Betfair (226/1). She does hold an entry so I wonder if John Gosden has decided that she is a ten furlong filly and she will not be going. Glad I did not back Queen’s Jewel ante post before the Prix de Diane (now 50/1) as she ran nowhere from her chronic draw 17 – although the winner came from 15!
I'll be there to see Jack Hobbs Saturday at the Curragh. QM the ground can't be nothing but fast, it hasn't rained here in two weeks, it's been baking hot with slight winds and the forecast is similar all week up to the Irish Derby. Unless they saturate it themselves the ground will be good to firm there.
Just how far is The Curragh from Dublin? I thought it was about 20 miles. Looking at the ten day weather forecast for Dublin on weather.com, they have a 40% chance of rain on Monday, a sunny day Tuesday, a 50% chance of rain on Wednesday, cloudy on Thursday and a 50% chance of rain on Friday. It is not much different on theweathernetwork.com, so take your brolly on Saturday as there may be showers then as well. Plus if the Irish racing authorities get a phone call from Coolmore they might turn the taps on...
It is about 35 kilometres. I don't live too far away from the Curragh! The forecast on my phone has been the same the past few weeks, 60% chance of rain showers...haven't seen 1. Not much being forecast here for the week either just the odd shower
It was good to firm at Epsom and he beat everything except Goldon Horn pretty comprehensively, and looking at the entries there is nothing in that field that would scare me. If there is any rain, I think it will just result in him winning further, but I don't think he needs rain to beat that lot
I understand what you say QM but just because he hasn't run in a G1 race doesn't mean he can't cut the mustard against proper G1 horses (I appreciate that you aren't actually saying that). I don't think Harbinger had run in a G1 race before demolishing a G1 field in the KG but the form was there (times and manner of victory). If we look at pure form we will see that Time Test beat Peacock by further than did Golden Horn, and more impressively - and is improving all the time. So 25/1 looks value to me at present. He still has to prove he will improve for another step up in trip. The ground is another unknown, although as a 2yo, he won (comfortably) on good to soft over a stiff 7f at Sandown. Other unknowns of course are will he travel and will he like the course? I hope he comes to France and runs at Longchamp as that would be the strongest indicator so far of intentions of connections (ie to test out the last two named unknowns). I just think that if 25/1 isn't value then the 7/1 Golden Horn (also with unknowns) certainly isn't - purely relatively.
There are three races over the next two weekends which will likely result in major changes to the ante post prices on the 'Arc'. Tomorrow we have the Irish Derby (Jack Hobbs and Highland Reel) and on Sunday we have the Grand Prix de St Cloud (Treve, Dolniya and Flintshire). Then next Saturday we have Golden Horn and New Bay at Sandown. There is also Karpino in the Deutsches Derby where an impressive win could result in a 'plunge' from Hills' offer of 25/1. As the online bookmakers are now pretty competent in quick adjustments to their AP offers do any of my fellow punters hold views on what should be 'backed' for the 'Arc' before the races detailed above?
Flintshire’s chance in the Arc is entirely dependent upon the going on the day of the race so I would not have a dime on him ante post. If it is soft he will go straight to the Breeders’ Cup. We know that Treve will be a very short-priced favourite on the day on the PMU because half of France will be on her so anybody that thinks she is going to complete the hat-trick should have been on ages ago at 5/1. Personally, I do not think that she will do it but the only way the odds will get better than the current 3/1 is if she is well beaten before October or there is an injury scare. As Dolniya is owned by the Aga Khan, who could well be multiply represented resulting in coupling on the PMU, anybody that fancies her chances needs to decide by Sunday whether they think she can beat Treve at St Cloud if they want a big price. As I think that Golden Horn will beat New Bay, I would not be backing anything that is running in the Eclipse other than the Derby winner – including The Grey Gatsby and Free Eagle. If Karpino was not owned by the Qataris, would it even have been mentioned yet?
If she runs on firm going before the Arc I wouldn't touch her. I assume and hope she will be kept off firm ground to ensure she keeps sound. Any race she is in before the Arc must not have firm in the description and preferably have soft in the description. It will only be a prep for the Arc so I wouldn't be concerned if she is beaten. I agree it's unlikely she will touch 5s again but, provided she keeps off the firm ground before the Arc (on and off the track) and arrives at the race safe and sound and 100% fit she will be difficult to beat whatever the ground is on the day (other than extremes).
QM - Thanks, this is exactly the critique/summation I was looking for. When you are considering AP bets, as with all punting, you have your 'fancies' and tend to be blinkered about their chances. It's a wee bit like the detective with a murder suspect who 'fits ' (pun intended) the evidence and clues to suit his/her main suspect. AP bets so far are based on reported or known intentions of owners/trainers - Treve 11/2 - Free Eagle 16/1. Seriously thinking about New Bay; I suppose it's a wee bit simplistic to base a bet solely on the result between the runners up in the Derby and Prix du Jockey Club later today in Ireland. I have previously given my views on Karpino; is it too much to accept that Germany would produce a third excellent horse in a short period of time?
The Grand Prix de Saint Cloud did little to change the Arc market. You can still get 3/1 Treve if you shop around whilst runner-up Flintshire is available at 40/1 but curiously disappointing Dolniya is shorter at 33/1. I note that Irish Derby winner Jack Hobbs is top-priced 10/1, whilst the four Eclipse possible are 6/1 Golden Horn, 10/1 New Bay, 12/1 Free Eagle and 25/1 The Grey Gatsby.
Free Eagle isn't going for the Eclipse. If you think he is take the 123s on Betfair... More than a satisfactory win from TREVE today. Wasn't impressive but let's not forget she got thumped in her prep race last year before storming to Longchamp glory. She's being aimed at one race and one race alone. The 3/1 remaining is a very fair price imo but I'll still side with FREE EAGLE. Was some rush job to get him to run at, never mind win at, Royal Ascot. Not many win the PoW on their first run of the season, in fact, has any horse ever done that before??!
