The Just The Bare Form And The Ratings Guide Carbon Dating (John Patrick Shanahan) Maiden after four races including last in Epsom Derby Trial, remote third in Derrinstown Stud Derby Trial behind Success Days and last in Irish 2000 Guineas. Elm Park (Andrew Balding) Won maiden race on second juvenile start followed by a mile Listed race, the Group 2 Royal Lodge Stakes on quick ground and the Group 1 Racing Post Trophy on soft ground. Six length third in ten furlong Dante Stakes on three-year-old debut. Epicuris (Criquette Head-Maarek) Won the Prix de Conde on soft ground and the Group 1 Criterium de Saint-Cloud on heavy as a juvenile. Four length runner-up in the ten furlong Prix la Force on seasonal bow behind Silverware. Giovanni Canaletto (Aidan O’Brien) Won a maiden race at second attempt as a juvenile on soft ground. On three-year-old debut was neck runner-up in the Gallinule Stakes over ten furlongs at The Curragh. Golden Horn (John Gosden) Won a mile maiden race on only start as a two-year-old. On three-year-old bow, collected the Feilden Stakes at Newmarket following up with impressive ten furlong Dante Stakes victory to remain unbeaten. Hans Holbein (Aidan O’Brien) Fourth on sole start in a maiden race as a two-year-old. Won ten furlong soft ground maiden race at second attempt as three-year-old followed by twelve furlong Chester Vase on soft ground. Jack Hobbs (John Gosden) Easy winner of sole two-year-old start in a Wolverhampton maiden race. Started three-year-old campaign with easy victory in ten furlong Sandown handicap off 85 rating followed by second to Golden Horn in Dante Stakes. Kilimanjaro (Aidan O’Brien) Failed to win in two maiden race starts as a juvenile. Won Dundalk maiden race on three-year-old bow followed by victory in Listed Lingfield Derby Trial on good ground. Moheet (Richard Hannon) Easily won only juvenile start in a mile maiden race. Finished third to stablemate Kool Kompany in Craven Stakes on three-year-old debut followed by eight length unplaced effort in Newmarket 2000 Guineas. Rogue Runner (Andreas Wohler) Won six furlong Kincsem-Rennen on only juvenile start. Won seven furlong Heinz Jentzsch Stakes on seasonal bow followed by fifth in a ten furlong Group 3 race at Frankfurt on soft ground. Storm The Stars (William Haggas) Failed to win in two maiden race starts as a juvenile. Won nine furlong maiden race at second attempt as a three-year-old, followed by staying on second in Chester Vase behind Hans Holbein and victory in the Cocked Hat Stakes. Success Days (Ken Condon) Won maiden race at second attempt as a juvenile then unplaced in nine furlong Listed race on final start. Three races on soft ground as a three-year-old have been victorious including three-runner Ballysax Stakes and four-runner Derrinstown Stud Derby Trial, both over ten furlongs. Conclusions There are two definite front-runners in the line-up in Hans Holbein and Success Days but in both cases they have done all their winning on soft ground. The latter’s efforts in Ireland appear to be better form and the ratings give him a good chance if handling quicker ground and allowed an easy lead. On the ratings and the visual evidence, the best form that is available is the Dante Stakes where Golden Horn defeated Jack Hobbs and Elm Park over ten furlongs. The biggest issue appears to be whether these three will progress for that race and the extra distance. French raider Epicuris is something of an unknown quantity but should get the trip and the German raider Rogue Runner is a complete unknown whilst Giovanni Canaletto, Storm The Stars, Kilimanjaro and Moheet need to improve quite considerably to feature.
The only thing that might save this Derby is if those horses with form on soft/heavy won DESPITE the going, rather than because of it?
When is there ever a strong Derby? the race looks ****e every year according to most. Plenty of Derbys have looked worse than this years recently, Camelots for example, and also Workforce's where Jan Vermeer went off favourite. PS Shergar had a 6 time G1 winner trailing 10 lentghs behind him in 2nd
You would think Zawraq was some proven superstar by the reaction to him being cut! He might be half decent but looked unlikely to stay and it doesnt effect the race much to me, just the prices, ive never considered him a serious winning chance. I wanted him and Gleneagles in taking up percentages but should still get 5/2 Golden Horn.
I don't think we need look for a superstar to win this derby Joe. I think Zawraq was the only class horse with the potential to improve for the step up in trip. I'm just disappointed that he wasn't able to prove it. Maybe in the KG. Golden Horn doesn't have the pedigree to win a Derby but the opposition is so poor that his class may win the day.
Cant agree Ron, dont remember Shamardal ever siring a proper 1m4 horse and Zawraq has never looked like one, 1m -1m2. And hes had umpteen goes with Saddlers Wells, Unfuwain, Shirley Heights, Rainbow Quest etc mares.
That is interesting. I wasn't aware of that. To use that famous phrase "More research required" . Thanks for that. It does shed a different light on things. I was thinking that with Saddlers Wells and Bustino on the dam side and Shamardal having won the French Derby (from Hurricane Run) and throw in the guts of Giant's Causeway he was a good bet for the Derby. Now you have made me think.
Had another look and can only see Baltic Baroness who won the Vermille although that was effectively a French trial, not sure you would fancy her getting home in a truly run KG for example! And Puissance De Lune in Australia won over 13f, but what you can read into that I dont know as it seems he was a blot on the handicap and has never went further than 10f since, plus you get 7f horses winning at 10f over there. His only 2 wins since then are at 7f and 1m according to racing post. It would be unusual for Zawraq to be a top class 1m4 horse in my opinion looking at Shamardals offspring. Golden Horn on the other hand, if he is a top class Cape Cross it would be unusual for him not to get 1m4! Especially considering he is already proven to get 1m2 well.
Golden Horn is the only horse who looks absolutely top class and I think the cream will rise to the top! 9/4 or 5/2 on the day will do for me
I wouldn't have had Cape Cross as a sire of top class 12f horses Joe, being by Green Desert out of an Ahonoora.mare. But he has had STS, who was out of the admirable Urban Sea, and 7l Oaks winner Ouija Board - so looks like I got that completely wrong. I think you have talked me round to thinking that maybe Golden Horn is the banker bet. and maybe I will watch the race after all in the hope that he is a tue 12f horse as that would give us something to look forward to in October.
I'm with cityhull and think that Golden Horn will win and if I can get 5/2 on the course I will be happy, if I was pushed the only other horse I would back is Giovanni Canaletto, he is bred to stay the trip (full-brother to Ruler of The World), ran well on his seasonal debut coming from the back off a slow pace and did well to get within a neck of the winner that day, also has Ryan Moore on board, so I might also play the forecast. .
My experience in the betting industry tells me that you have absolutely no chance of getting 5/2 about Golden Horn to win the Derby unless you are betting in running on the exchanges and he is in a bad position. As I look now he is a best-priced 7/4 with Betway but as low as 11/8 with Ladbrokes. There are six outsiders in the field who will make up very little of the book so it would require a major gamble on one of the fancied contenders to see the bookies pushing the favourite out. They have small liabilities ante post because the horse was not entered in the race until Monday so a few of the layers may be prepared to take him on and offer 2/1 if they are confident enough that he is a non stayer.
What price would an O'Brien trained horse be if he'd won the Derrinstown and Ballysax by a total of 14 lengths? Probably 3/1. Not saying Success Days is going to win but 16/1 is a meaty price about something that's won two recognised trials without breaking sweat.
You are probably right that Success Days is massively overpriced. However, the Ballysax was a three runner race on Soft ground and the Derrinstown was a four runner race on heavy ground. He made the running in both, so could he be the one to try and steal the Derby from the front?
