Zawraq found to be ‘slightly lame’ after his morning exercise. The next 36 hours will decide whether or not he makes Epsom. Zawraq has drifted right out to 7’s as a result of this news. In contrast the money for old boy Giovanni continues to pour in.
Not great news about Zawraq. I really hope its only a very slight nick that can heal itself over the next two days and allow him to stride out on Saturday afternoon. If he's out I'm really unsure of what to back!
If he is out I'm not that interested in the race to be honest. One of them has to win but whatever wins won't have a hope in the Arc
Normally in the week before the Derby the injury scare surrounds one of Sir Michael Stoute’s runners. The problem is that he does not have any so they have had to find something else. Zawraq was second favourite this morning but now John Gosden has the first two in the betting as he drifts... With the market move for Giovanni Canaletto, I am wondering whether Ryan Moore has decided to ride the full brother to Derby winner Ruler Of The World and those that are in the know are getting on early. Punters should stay away from Elm Park unless it is non runner no bet because in the Racing Post the racing manager for Qatar Racing says that if it is too dry on Saturday they will withdraw the horse.
Giovanni Canalleto is my only live bet in the race at the minute, 20s and 25s, and if Golden Horn doesnt get to at least 5/2 it might be my only bet! Im sure he will though, could have done without the Zawraq stuff today, need him in there keeping those prices out.
Mate, careful there, that's what you were saying about Faugheen all last winter, keeping a price on The Classless One <only messing mucker> You reckon this Golden Horns a racing cert then do you? I know a few judges are saying he is. He won't need to be a star to win it anyway, looks one of the least appealing Derby's for ages.
I was saying that early season to be fair, but I think closer to the race I knew deep down Fuagheen was going to be too good, just had to stay with The New One out of principle! No I dont think hes a cert, never have, I think hes a bad price just now even though it looks a shallow Derby as you say. Hes no New Approach at 5/1. I really ought to be on at a big price but for some reason I never thought to back him before the Dante even though I bet him in it. I think if he just about gets the trip then he might be too good but ive never lost faith in Gio, been saying for a long time now he is Obriens best chance, I backed him again after he got beat in Ireland and you know he will get the trip. Left the 16s Jack Hobbs and nothing else has tempted me at all for the race, Zawraq is the unknown I suppose, in my opinion he has always been severely under priced and I cant have him, but if he stays he could have a good chance. I might throw a few quid on Rocky Rider 100/1 for a laugh, he was only a bawhair away from making my dreaded list!
Very disappointing Fenster, I was expecting bullishness and outlandish confidence in your lad so I could rip you after the race when he finished a well beaten 5th Hard one to weigh up, I just can't see your guy staying, he looks a 10f animal to me and he simply swamped the other pair for speed. I'd expect Elm Park to beat him over the trip but the ground concerns I cited are cropping up based on QMs comments. Not convinced by Zawraq myself in terms of him staying but I like the horse however DK hasn't a great record of winning Epsom Derbies. Might end up on Gio e/w myself but the Ryan Moore fanclub might just ruin the price for that! You're a braver man than me backing him after that last defeat, I'd a been certain he'd a been kept for the Curragh, big long uphill finish would be right up his street. I'll just keep on the fence till the day I think
I'm going to put my reputation on the line a little bit here, and brand anyone who takes a single figure price about the likes of Elm Park and Giovanni Canaletto stupid. I just cannot get my head around anyone wanting to back either horses at a single figure price. Giovanni Canaletto couldn't even win a poor G3 last time, so how on earth do people expect him to win a bloody Derby? You'd have to be an idiot to invest IMO And as far as Elm Park is concerned, he was beaten 6 lengths in his trial after getting a perfect trip, so you'd have to be brain dead to bet on him to win. The Derby will be between the Gosden pair, as those 2 have the best form by a mile. Jack Hobbs has a chance of reversing the form, as I think the step up in trip will suit him more, whilst he had had to travel 3 wide at York, unlike Golden Horn who got the plum draw in stall 1. Zawraq would have come into consideration, but I'd never touch any horse that is having lots of little set backs. He's also not even run since April, which tells me the horse has something that is effecting him on a regular basis. His injury scare this week isn't just a one off
Agreed. He was my banker for theDerby (the only one I could fancy). So with him effectively out, I'm out
Derby punters may like to know that Mr Henderson is in the ‘Racing Post’ this morn answering the question who he thinks will win the old Derby. His response is that he can’t split Golden Horn and Jack Hobbs. Unconfirmed reports indicate that odds regarding the dead-heat re these 2 have collapsed from 500/1 to 9/4 as a result.
I think if Zawraq had been having any trouble at home every dog in Ireland would have been barking about it because of the way that Dermot Weld has talked the horse up. The owner took him out of the Newmarket 2000 Guineas because he had other runners. He missed the Derrinstown because of the heavy ground. They could surely have gone for the Dante instead. I am not sure why they decided to skip the Irish 2000 Guineas because he was in the entries and the going ended up good to yielding.
that ship sailed when you dismissed this Barca outfit Elm Park won the Royal Lodge and Racing Post last season and has run 3rd in the best trial, the two who finished in front of him the only horses in the race according to you, considering the lack of depth in the race I dont see how he couldnt be single figures, not that I fancy him. Giovanni Canaletto probably doesnt deserve to be this short, but when do you get double figures Ballydoyles number 1 in the Derby? The reason Moore picked him is because he has more potential and class than their other trial winners, his head carriage last time looks a worry but he will leave that form behind in this race and is one of the few with good potential who will definitely stay, he could be the best 1m4 horse in the race. When you look beyond Elm Park and Gio in the betting, you can see why they are single figures. I agree with you, the first two in the Dante look clear of what anyone else has done and id be surprised if Gosden doesnt win it but there is still a couple whos hands have not been revealed.
If Ryan Moore wins the Oaks on the favourite on Friday, Giovanni Canaletto could start more like 5/1 and possibly even be second favourite because the media will pick up on the fact that Moore had won the three Classics so far and that would attract the housewives’ money. I too think that it was an easy decision. Giovanni Canaletto ran second in the Gallinule on his seasonal bow but that was only his third career start so there is still potential. We know that all of the Ballydoyle contenders will stay. It would be ironic if Ruler Of The World’s brother was beaten by the Chester Vase winner Hans Holbein because the last horse to win the Derby after victory on the Roodee was... As I expect Hans Holbein to try and make all, I am already ruling out any non-stayer winning the race. So no flying dismount from Frankie this year.
That's why I rarely get on football as I'm useless at it But horses are different, and I don't get many wrong when it comes to the big races, and I'm certain neither Elm Park or Giovanni Canelleto will be winning. Elm Parks winning form is all 2yo form, and the horses he beat haven't exactly franked the form since. His RP trophy form is very average if you ask me, and his Dante 3rd proves he's behind 2 superior horses in the Derby. 1 may under perform, but there is no way I can see both the Gosden pair running a stinker to allow Elm Park to win. Giovanni Canoletto is all hype like you say, but I think your judgement is clouded re him because you picked him out as one to follow at the start. But anyone looking at his form objectively would not have him as a single figure price
The only horse I would have backed at a single figure price is now doubtful. How can he be 100% fit for the Derby with training interrupted?
