The 2015 Epsom Derby

Knock the Gleneagles talk on the head lads, no chance at all he runs here. Coolmore have won the last 3 Derbys, there hardly short of them at stud! What they want is a top class Galileo miler, they have one now, so why ruin him by running in the Derby? There not Goldolphin after all

 

At the five day declaration stage for the Epsom Derby, the following seventeen colts remain available to take part on Saturday: (prices from Oddschecker)

Best Of Times – Saeed bin Suroor (66/1)
Carbon Dating – John Patrick Shanahan (250/1)
Elm Park – Andrew Balding (8/1)
Epicuris – Criquette Head-Maarek (25/1)
Giovanni Canaletto – Aidan O’Brien (16/1)
Gleneagles – Aidan O’Brien (5/1)
Golden Horn – John Gosden (7/4)
Great Glen – Ralph Beckett (66/1)
Hans Holbein – Aidan O’Brien (12/1)
Jack Hobbs – John Gosden (7/1)
Kilimanjaro – Aidan O’Brien (20/1)
Moheet – Richard Hannon (40/1)
Prince Gagarin – Ed Dunlop (125/1)
Rocky Rider – Andrew Balding (100/1)
Rogue Runner – Andreas Wohler (100/1)
Storm The Stars – William Haggas (33/1)
Zawraq – Dermot Weld (5/1)

 

To tell everyone that Gleneagles won't be running at Epsom and then running him, would make him a very unpopular winner if he wins.

As far as Golden Horn is concerned, I go by what I've seen on the racecourse , and he looked strong at the end of an extended 10 furlong race, so I think there's every chance he'll stay.

It's easy to get to caught up in pedigrees, but I don't believe they play as big a role in finding a winner as some would have us believe. I see it time and time again on RUK, where the pundits claim certain horses are bred for certain trips, or a horse is bred to handle soft ground, and it turns out they are completely wrong.

You'll have far more success as a gambler if you concentrate on the actual form book rather than worrying about pedigrees

 

The reason people look at pedigrees Shergs is that it should give some indication of conformation which determines whether a horse is better built for speed or stamina. However, so many of the pedigrees are mixed up that there is no telling which attributes might come through. The physical conformation of the horse and its mental attitude is more important and its performances on the course will override any theoretical estimate based on pedigree. As regards going preference, the same applies; the conformation and action is the overriding factor.

If a horse has been the result of carefully planned line breeding then the liklihood of estimating its optimum distance is significantly increased.

The form book often, as is the case with classics, shows horses not having tackled the distance before so there is no form to go on.

 

PS. I think it is a pretty safe bet though if the sire didn't stay and had no stayers in its pedigree and had not produced anything that stayed,it is very unlikely that any of its progeny will stay. Exceptions are when there is plenty of stamina and quality on the dam side. If that doesn't exist on the dam side then it's almost a cast iron certainty that any foal from such a combination will not stay.

 

Although Gleneagles is still in the five day declarations, they can still take him out at the final declarations on Thursday, so I would not take him as a guaranteed runner. In any case, the only way that I can see him being in the finish is if they take him to Tattenham Corner in a horsebox and then put him in the race.

As I stated previously, I see Golden Horn as a ten furlong horse just like The Queen’s horse Carlton House that started favourite when Pour Moi won.

 

Gleneagles and Found both head next to Royal Ascot. Confirmed by Coolmore this morning

 

The problem with this year's Derby is that we have class non stayers and not so class stayers. If the stayers are too slow then it's possible that one of the non stayers will have the class to take the race. ie if all those with any chance were all 10f horses, one of them would have to win. So it could be between Gleneagles and Golden Horn. Only saying. I have no idea what I would back, if anything

We need to establish a short list of stayers/likely stayers and see which of those has the most class

 

Scratch my previous post regarding the seventeen colts still entered for the Derby. According to SportingLife.com, Success Days has been supplemented into the race for £75,000 by trainer Ken Condon – but he does not appear in the list on the Racing Post website. He is 20/1 on Oddschecker.

If you go on Betfair, you can back Gleneagles at 4/1, Found at 10/1 and Sumbal at 20/1 if you are really keen to throw your money away.

 

Wow, I spotted Success Days some time back. I'm now looking like a bloody genius....well until he falls flat on his face. If he wins the Derby, I'm claiming Stick's spot as forum genius.

 

At last had a chance to study this race and for me it's a no brainer.

 

Does that mean no chance?

 

Probably Cyc. I've added a Poll. Unfortunately I forgot to add a choice of "Other" so might be worth looking at the "Others" to find the winner. Can't seem to be able to add another option even though there is an option to do so.

 

It seems that somebody has woken up at the Racing Post and there are fifteen horses listed at the five day stage as follows: (odds from Oddschecker)

Best Of Times – Saeed bin Suroor (66/1)
Carbon Dating – John Patrick Shanahan (250/1)
Elm Park – Andrew Balding (9/1)
Epicuris – Criquette Head-Maarek (25/1)
Giovanni Canaletto – Aidan O’Brien (16/1)
Golden Horn – John Gosden (7/4)
Hans Holbein – Aidan O’Brien (12/1)
Jack Hobbs – John Gosden (7/1)
Kilimanjaro – Aidan O’Brien (20/1)
Moheet – Richard Hannon (40/1)
Rocky Rider – Andrew Balding (100/1)
Rogue Runner – Andreas Wohler (100/1)
Storm The Stars – William Haggas (33/1)
Success Days – Ken Condon (20/1)
Zawraq – Dermot Weld (5/1)

 

You know what, I'm not so certain the Dante is the best trial for this race. As people have pointed out, the half mile uphill start at Epsom is in stark contrast to York, which a beautiful track it is, it is very flat and very fair. When I look at Golden Horns performance, he is switched off at the back whilst there are and some keen horses in the shape of Jack Hobbs and John F Kennedy. I just wonder if the race exaggerates his superiority and possibly even masks the stamina question when he hits the furlong pole at Epsom.

We thought it was a 'surprise' when The Grey Gatsby won the Dante last year but he turned out to be a specialist 10f horse with a good turn of foot.

I really like Zawraq as a horse so I look a bit of a hypocrite in putting faith in him whilst questioning Golden Horn, but the difference for me is that connections have sidestepped golden opportunities in a Guineas with the view that Zawraq has always looked more of a Derby horse and does his best work late on. That view is backed up with a nice amount of stamina on the dam side of his pedigree. Shamrdal stayed 10f on soft ground too so whilst he has inherited his sires speed, there looks hope that he could be a Derby type. He looks to have the class for the race, but again he has questions left to answer.

Gio Canaletto & Epicuris look the ones truly assured of stamina,although possibly lacking a gear.

Jack Hobbs could still be anything, especially if he gets bowling downhill, and would be the one I fear.

 

Don't forget to record your vote in the poll please.

 

I thought I would read this thread to try and unravel this almost impossible to solve Derby this year.
Having read it I am even more confused

I think I just can't be having Elm Park though because although he might well beat one of Jack Hobbs and Golden Horn he won't beat them both.
I am interested to know who Ryan Moore will be riding on Saturday. Hans Holbein? If so then this horse has fairly decent form - Storn the Stars beating Best of Times at Goodwood. I think I will also have an e/w bet on Success Days as this horse has been impressive over in Ireland and hasnt really doen anything wrong.

The front 3 in the betting though is where I am getting confused and I doubt I will make my mind up until the day itself!

*if Ryan Moore wins the Oaks then I will probably have a bet on him as to win the first 4 classics of the year would be quite something. In fact has anyone ever done it??

 

Bit of a move for Giovanni Canaletto this morn. Blue across the board on ‘Oddschecker’ and down to as low as 8’s in a place. Does this move indicate that Ryan has nodded in his direction or am I painting a somewhat incorrect picture?!?

 

You may not be too far off the mark Barn.

 

I'll vote when I've decided, at the minute I'm down to Elm Park, Zawraq and Giovanni The fence is surprisingly comfortable! Really, really hope Jack Hobbs gets stuffed, purely because its another example of that ghastly crew trying to buy someone's success story right before the bleeding race there so desperate to win