Agree Jack didn't get a tough ride, he got an educating one as he's still a bit green. Some may think that's a positive, in that he'll come forward with the experience of York but I'd take a different view about a horse being so green one race before Epsom. I'd be hugely worried him ending up at Buckingham Palace trying to come round Tattenham Corner mysel! I suppose the 2 things I ask myself from the Dante is whose going to come on most for the run and whose suited by the extra distance. In my book Elm Park is the answer to both them questions but time will tell. I see Golden Horn's getting the big talk already on the forum from some but that's the usual. When his arse is dropping out the back of the telly at the 1 pole the tunes will change pretty quick or the race wasn't run to suit
Was rewatching this afternoon actually and that hanging did concern me slightly! However I think it was a good lesson to learn regarding his positioning when he gets to the bend at Epsom- they want him on the inside. Elm Park looks the least complicated of all of them that's for sure.
EPICURIS CARPINO SUMBAL All potentially supplemented for Epsom? Epicuris is a definite, is there confirmation on the other two?
Zarkar is down as an entry but has never run. Any news on that one? Can't run a horse in the Derby on its début. When is the next declaration stage?
Where's Princess when you need her? I think supplementary entries are 5 days before he race? I would assume that is the next declaration stage as well but have no idea.
Epicuris already holds an entry for the Derby, so he does not need to be supplemented. The Racing Post card shows the sixteen still entered plus Golden Horn, who needs to be supplemented. I think that they are more likely to send Karpino to the Prix Du Jockey Club after he won the German Guineas. The next declaration stage for the Derby is Monday 1st June (Five Day declarations) at which point Supplementary entries can be made. Final declarations are on Thursday 4th June, 48 hours before the race.
Epicurus is to be rerouted from the French Derby to Epsom as the French authorities will only allow stall handlers to load horses at the start. http://www.racingpost.com/news/hors...7/derbymeeting/#newsArchiveTabs=last7DaysNews
This is a sort of public service post, in the sense that it has no axe to grind and it won't be talking up the chances of one given horse against those of other horses. It's intended to illustrate the dangers of believing that what professionals say in public is either a) accurate or b) what they really think. The specific instance here is the curious incident of the horse in the day-time - the horse being Elm Park and the day being Tuesday 26 May. Like several other Epsom entries, Elm Park turned up to work on Epsom downs in conjunction with the Breakfast With The Stars event on Tuesday. I'd been considering a fairly modest each-way bet on him (modest because of the stamina doubt rather than his York performance) but decided to wait until after the public Epsom workout, and until any further announcement emerged about the participation of Sumbal (see TC's enquiry, above). Obviously, I'm not going to get invited to clash knives and forks with the great and good and, equally obviously, I'm not going to get up early enough to walk across a draughty racecourse at - more or less - crack of dawn to watch the proceedings in person. So I ask a couple of my low-life associates (translation: occasional casual employees of smaller Epsom trainers) to do the watching for me. I won't make this too long, but the versions I have are these: 1) Andrea Atzeni (work rider and Derby jockey-apparent): "I was pleased, and thought it was a nice piece of work He travelled well behind his lead horse, who went a nice even gallop......he cruised to the front and quickened up well. He had a good look (while) in front and wandered around a bit, but he was entitled to as he's never been there before". 2) Ian Balding (trainer):" I was happy as Andrea was happy". Then some generalities about the course and state of the ground, and comparing Elm Park favourably with previous Dante winner Bonfire. So far so good, if you're thinking of a bet, and certainly sounding positive rather than negative. But then: 3.Chris Goulding (racing hack, Daily Star) reporting live from Epsom: "Elm Park, in the hands of Atzeni, did not impress after constantly changing his legs. He clearly looked all at sea on the undulating course". 4. Paul Kealy (RP betting reporter, today Friday 29th) summarised: 'my ante-post bets need reviewing.....Elm Park didn't act on the course....." 5. My low-life associate $1: " Elm Park came round the corner like a crab with gout" 6. Low-life associate $2: "No chance, can't act, won't stay". As for Sumbal, the best I can find is a quote from the racing manager of (same owner) Qatar Racing. "Andrea rode him in a piece of work at Chantilly (on Monday), and he is also a possibility, but he won't come to Epsom unless there's significant rain. A decision (will be made) later this week, but the French Derby is likelier for him at the moment". The other thing to add here is that pub gossip from Kingsclere suggests that if Sumbal does run at Epsom, Atzeni will ride him ahead of Elm Park. So there we go. Assuming nobody's actually lying for fun, what would you draw from all that ? You'll have to take my word that my two associates understand what they're watching but, even if they don't, you wouldn't be inclined to go in heavy on Elm Park, would you ? The stamina thing you can only take a view about and horses with dodgy profiles have certainly won before: Bustino, Swanny and Tamerlo will probably all remember 1984 (Secreto/El Gran Senor) famously dismissed as 'two non-stayers beating a load of rubbish'. But for track-handling, I'd take the judgment of the journalists - who don't have owners to please and breeding potential to protect - before the feelgood stuff from connections. Anyway, I won't be having the bet, and certainly not at 7-1. But Beefy's a man to be reckoned with, and who's to say he's wrong ?
Good post Rainer but I'll have to add that I selected Secreto long before the Derby. After studying Racehorses and pedigrees I decided that El Gran Senor would not stay and that Secreto was better bred for the race and advised friends who were going to back it. OK I was nearly wrong but my friends were happy as was I. Just thought I would plug one of my successes; couldn't miss that opportunity PS I won't be going for Elm Park.
The Supplementary Entry for the Derby has to be made on Monday for Golden Horn. I wonder if Anthony Oppenheimer has been looking at the five day weather forecasts for the early part of next week. It does not look very good at all unless all the rain heading across the Atlantic queuing up to dump on us is going to miss Surrey. Plus the Met Office longer outlook suggests thundery showers being pushed up from the continent as high pressure sits over the north of the country. Might he be having second thoughts about shelling out £75,000 to find out if his ten furlong horse can go a little bit further? Might the connections of Success Days be searching down the back of the sofa for a bit of change to cobble together an entry for their horse?
Elm Park has more chance of winning the lottery than the Derby. Your just giving money away if you back him
Plenty, that's who Just to clarify I'm not saying he's going to 'devastate them' or suchlike, I just like his chances more than anything else I've seen this season, but that's probably down to being disappointed by most and simply not buying the Goldern Horn hype. In fact you could nearly say he's the one whose disappointed me least! To be honest I didn't fancy him at all beforehand as I thought he needs soft but the Dante showed he's effective on good/firm. I've also seen some reports similar to what you've eloquently reported Rainer too, so that's a consideration but Jack Hobbs looks very green for one being pitched into a Derby. DK Weld's enthusiasm for Zawraq is infectious and unlike Elm Park the drier the better for him. He was one I didn't really consider as I thought he was being aimed for the Irish Guineas, but I'm not certain he's going to stay well enough, though he's probably the classiest in the field. It's definitely a race to play on the day, I'd be very keen on Elm Park should there be a bit of rain late next week (seems somewhat unlikely). He reminds me so much of Kingston Hill with his profile and he showed up well last year at a decent price. Any rain would be hugely beneficial as I think it's his optimism if it's juicy (and softer makes handling the track easier) plus it brings in stamina which I think he has. I'm no breeding expert however!
In regards Elm Parks pedigree, being from Phoenix Reach and out of a Dashing Blade mare, his pedigree suggests to me he'll barely get 10 furlongs, and his run in the Dante, fading in the last furlong could indicate that he didn't quite stay the trip. So I'm failing to understand why some including Beefy see him as a potential St Leger horse later in the season. As I don't even think he'll get the trip in the Derby. I'm sure Bustino would agree that Elm Parks pedigree looks to be lacking in stamina
I may sound like a cracked record , but I still think hans Holbein looks like value for the derby. I really haven't been impressed with anything else in the race, and his prep has been good and the form stands up. Sometimes a horse will come from nowhere, and there will be AOB in the winners enclosure saying we've always liked him but he was a baby last year and slow to come to hand. Seen it all before. Look out for the Moore/ O' brien double
With Sumbal running in the Prix Du Jockey Club, I think that it would be safe to conclude that he will not be supplemented for the Derby on Monday. Found has retained her entry in the Epsom Oaks – along with four other Ballydoyle fillies – so it does not look like they will be adding her to take on the boys.
