Off Topic Political Debate

Could be a few big name casualties?

 

Suggestions coming through that Ed Balls may not hold his seat.

 

It's looking like both Danny & Doug Alexander are on their way to the Job Centre - and Wee 'Eck probably heading for Westminster.

 

Looking like a result which will end the Union. Sickening !!! In the end all of the right wing hysteria towards Scotland and the SNP worked.

 

We can see this morning the accumulated result of a 'population which is not interested in politics`.

 

I'm not sure that it will make much difference to the Union. The SNP MP's can make as much noise as they like, but the result of the referendum remains. Of course Salmond's plan to take up a Westminter seat to lead the campaign within has worked, but after a couple of months the rest of the country will have had their fill and will ignore the old fish.
Where I see the proverbial really hitting the fan is when it comes to the EU membership vote. If the whole country votes to leave then the whole SNP plan will have backfired on them and short of revolution, there is no plan B. Fascinating days ahead.
Ed will pay the price for such a poor campaign, but people really did see through the Labour sound bites - their whole strategy was deeply flawed.

 

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Plus of course a media campaign that denigrated Clegg and Miliband

I actually feel sorry for the Lib Dems who doubtlessly moderated the excesses in the 'success' of the last government

 

I tend to disagree w-y - what happens next may be determined by the percentage of the Scottish vote won by SNP. Cameron has to tread carefully now or he may find that it is he himself who has little choice but to break up the Union.

I wouldn't be listening to what the media espoused last year - there is always a Plan B.

 

Many of the ex-pats I know do have an outside view of the political happenings in the UK. Many were happy to see the way that the coalition worked with the excesses of both sides moderated. The Labour party were saying the same things as Hollande did, which did win him power, but have proved to not be effective. Milliband tried to move the party off of the centre ground to the left and it clearly has not worked. My belief is that people in the UK are very moderate and do not like extremes of left or right. As a commentator has just said the SNP is basically moderate with both left and right wing policies. I feel sorry for some candidates who have lost their seats from all parties who have been decent hard working MPs. Bit of a kick in the teeth when you have put the effort in.

 

Why

Why would that be BB? It's clear that the SNP has a massive mandate in Scotland, but if they cannot influence voting in Westminster then what is their impact apart from being seen as the noisy neighbour? Plus, if they cannot force another independence vote before a EU vote in 2017, they will be in a very difficult position. I am sure there will be a Plan C, as Salmond is a very skilled operator and I am sure Plan B was to get a new independence vote based on a deal to keep Ed in power. But my very little political knowledge struggles to see what Plan C could be.
It is certainly going to be a couple of very interesting years in politics

 

I also think that a lot of voters were totally fed up with the sound bites and pigeon holing that Labour have been spinning for a few years. Trying to position all Tories as nasty bankers who would steal the bread from "hard working families" and ridiculous terms like "Millionaires Taxes" and "Mansion Taxes" have really turned a lot of people off. For some reason Labour have really been pushing this tactic for a couple of years and I think it has backfired massively.

 

I do not like Sturgeon much but she has responded in a statesman like way to her victory. No crowing but an acceptance of a good result. She has also re-iterated that it makes no difference to the SNP having another referendum - she said just now quite clearly that she promised she would not use the result for that and she will stand by it. She says that Scottish Independence is a matter for the Scottish Parliament first and foremost.
I feel the LibDems have paid harshly for their decision to form a coalition. The have been decimated by that decision while the Tories have ridden to power on their own - Cameron just took a very nasty swipe at the LibDems in Devon and Cornwall - crowing - most unappealing. He should remember that he is where he is only thanks to the LibDems
Agree with you Aberdeen about us being an excellent Democracy. You can argue both pros and cons of PR - but first past thepost is still totally legitimate in a democracy. Cologne - the House of Lords and the Queen are irrelevant to our democatic process. Neither can affect or veto legislation. The House of Commons is our democracy. The others just annoy people who dislike historic privilege.
Labour will have to learn that the British people do not like left wing policies - every time Labour steps to the left they get hammered. Blairite Labour is the only form that defeats the Tories - once Brown knifed Blair and Ed knifed his brother Labour were on a downward spiral. Most Brits are conservative with a small "c" and want moderate competent government.
It is a shame the Tories will now not have a moderating influence on them - I suspect Cameron will accelerate austerity to try to end it before he becomes embroiled in the coming EU fracas

 

Cameron could not care less whether Scotland is SNP or Labour.

 

Totally agree - the politics of envy and the left leave people cold. Labour failed to offer an alternative - most people believed Miliband would follow his mentor Brown and the Unions who forced him into power

 

Just think yourselves lucky. Under the voting system here half or more of you would be back at the polling station again next Thursday for the run off between the top two candidates.

 

Must say I find it hard to have much sympathy for Ed Balls. And Cameron should not crow too much - that majority is tiny and we all know how quickly the tories can turn in on themselves.

 

Whatever the arguments about Labour's economic policies it is worth remembering the difficult backdrop which Labour were facing at this election. Firstly on immigration and the EU - this argument was never addressed properly. There are nearly as many Britons living in the EU as the other way around - there are also more Britons in the richer countries of the EU who are claiming benefits there than people from those countries claiming the same in Britain. Britain just does not have a European immigration problem - yet Labour foolishly went on the defence here. Secondly Scotland - the right wing hysteria about the SNP and Labours relationship to them - again which Labour didn't handle too well. And then comes the theme of the media and personality politics which was so extreme at this election (with pronounced `winners' of TV votes etc.) it was even seen negatively that Natalie Bennett has an Australian accent ! Then we have the difficulties of a voting system in which, contrary to your predictions Leo, we will have a party ruling with a majority based on 36-37% of the vote. A party detested by the other 63% - and in which 47 % voted for parties which are further to the Left. The consequences of this will now be that Scotland and England can only grow irreparably further apart - particularly if they vote in different ways at the now forthcoming EU referendum. This referendum will also split the Conservative government in two so the hoped for stability just will not happen.

 

I'd be surprised if many agreed with that - Labour in its current form were well to the right of centre.

I think Leo may have partially answered that for you below. Sturgeon is true to her word and I'd say she certainly has no interest in breaking a promise about another referendum (fairly rare trait for a politician tbh). So Plan B has nothing to do with a referendum. Whilst effectively making SNP numbers in Westminster ineffective, this result has played right into Sturgeon's hands. For the next 10 months leading up to the Scottish election, she will be able to work on taking the SNP percentage share of the vote over the 50% mark - that's when she will have the mandate she requires. As Alex Salmond mentioned around two years ago, a referendum with such a mandate wouldn't be needed - the mechanism is already in place to go ahead without one & the only thing to stop it happening would be for Cameron (or Johnson if, god forbid, he takes over) to dissolve Holyrood. Would he be prepared to do that after all he has said and done?

 

The EU / Immigration issue was nowhere near as prominent as had been thought - hence UKIP's failure to even hold onto the two seats they went into the election with
SNP - right wing hysteria is a left wing view - the right wing realise austerity is horrible but necessary - Labour's austerity policy was bad enough but the SNP's was awful - so of course the SNP were seen as being even worse than Labour. HOwever it was never going to make a difference to the Tory majority as they had only one seat to lose - but did not. They are now as relevant Scotland as are Labour.
Personality politics is natural when Party Leaders are so important. If Blair had replaced Miliband even 6 weeks ago the British public would have trusted Labour again - they will never trust Miliband. Whether Natalie Bennett was Australian or a Martian was never important. The Greens do not count here. They failed all ways up. Like UKIP they are a one man band - and that man is Caroline Lucas.
You have no evidence that 63% "detest" the Conservatives -that kind of extremist talk is what makes people distrust the left. As it happens the remaining LibDem voters are probably the Tory sympathisers as it was their left wing supporters who quit in droves. UKIP probably favour Tory policies more than Labour as do the DUP in Northern Ireland. Stop making arch socialist unsupported comments as though they are facts. If you can prove 63% of people "detest" the Tories then supply a little evidence.
It is up to Cameron totry to be a statesman in how he approaches Scotland. My preference is Federal solution that puts the four nations on an equal basis.
Let's leave the EU referendum out of this shall we -who forecast the closeness of theScottish referendum 2 years out?

 

I do not see why we should leave the EU referendum out of this Leo because it may well be the defining event of the next electoral term. It will divide Scotland and England even further and will certainly divide the government because we will either have Conservatives involved in a bitter fight on both sides of the argument or further defections to Ukip, either way Cameron needs a strong whip or his party may fall apart. You say that Blair could have saved this for Labour ? If Scotland had voted the way that it normally votes then Labour would have had a small overall increase in seats - the problem was that they didn't win enough in England and Wales to compensate for the Scottish loss. Their biggest loss was to a party left of itself, and you shouldn't forget that. One further point, the Greens did not fail in the way you suggest - their share of the vote increased, and they held their only seat and they can do no more than this. What do you expect from a party which had an electoral budget of only 170,000 pounds for the last election, and had to send it all to Brighton ? They have got their ideas out and will profit from it at the smaller elections (local and European) - as I said, the are a 'work in progress'.