Off Topic The QPR Not 606 Rolling Election Poll

So we are left 'having' to vote tory, what a poor state of affairs.

A Tory vote means voting for cuts in child benefits which millions of families cannot afford. Sadly I'm starting to see little other option.

They're all bastards.

 

So you're believing the desperate lib dems are you? all they can do now is try desperately to hang onto enough seats to make them an option in any coalition. If they think they are doing this by misrepresenting historic documents as current policy, they are wrong.

 

I don't think so. Miliband has been very very clear they aren't going into any coalition with the SNP, and cannot go back on that, and they don't want to break up the UK into still smaller countries. If Labour form a minority government, I'm sure SNP will vote with them on many issues, and will get support from other parties on other issues. The chances of him having to call another election will be fairly high.

 

Unlike Scottish Labour MPs, the SNP (say they) wont vote on issues affecting England (and Wales and NI) only. Be interesting to see if they stick with that - as I guess no Scotsman is going to change their vote because the SNP voted for/against Free schools in England.

 

The SNP have said they will vote on English-only matters if it could have a knock-on effect on Scotland. And that could be very broad, indeed almost anything. For example, if Labour wanted to raise prescription charges in England, the SNP could support and push that through because it would mean more funds for Scotland under the Barnett Formula, even though the Scots don't pay for prescription charges.

The media are waking up this morning to the fact that just because Labour say they won't go into formal coalition or arrangements with the SNP, it won't stop deals being struck behind the scene. Every time Miliband wants to bring an unpopular law in England, but can't get a majority in Parliament without SNP support, he'll do a "behind locked doors" arrangement with wheeler-dealer Alex Salmond. The SNP will back Miliband, he'll get his unpopular law, and later, low and behold, Scotland will get some agreed benefit - but no one will be able conclusively to equate the two.

 

Great thread but I am just bored at the constant electioneering every time I turn on the TV.

This time next week it will all be over. Thank ****.

 

Just downloaded the excellent and free Betfair election app. Betfair have accurately predicted election results much better than polling organisations for years, and here is their projection:


I think we may be looking at a Lab-Lib coalition with SNP voting support. I can't see how the Lib Dems would join a grouping including UKIP and the DUP which the Tories would need. But if the Tories try to form a minority government (within their rights as biggest party) expect another election very soon.

Meanwhile, at our local hustings, the dyed bright red haired Labour candidate made a fool of herself. This was held at a local school, and chaired by a sixth former (I know his parents). Questions were drawn from a hat (they had been read already) and the first was on the lines of 'is it right that the next Prime Minister could be Australian?'. The Labour candidate threw a hissy fit and refused to answer 'a disgraceful question', whereas the Green candidate said it was entirely valid. Labour woman also struggled when it was noted that she was the only candidate not to live in the constituency and had described (the beautiful and historic) town of Warwick as 'boring'. At the end of the meeting she accused the 17 year old chair of stitching her up on purpose. The (incumbent) Tory was grey politico, the UKIP bloke apparently hugely overweight and in danger of imminent cardiac arrest, read from his election pamphlet to answer questions. The most impressive were the Lib Dem and Green candidates, who are both 21.

 

The fatigue is beginning to set in.

Watching beeb breakfast this morning and Bill was at some hospital as roving reporter. Anyway someone had calculated the cost of running the NHS and from the time the programme started at 6am until approx 8:30 when Bill was reporting the cost in that 2 1/2 hours was something like £31m and rising by the second........eye watering figures. My take is that whoever is in power next week it really doesn't matter how much extra money they pledge to the NHS it will never be enough, it is just a bottomless pit.

The only way to fund the system is to start charging for services and private health insurance will have to become the norm.......

Tin hat on.....

 

Great description of your local hustings, Stan. PG Wodhouse in the C21st!

Interesting projections which we can compare in a week's time. The only caveat I have on Betfair's work is that 20% of the population have yet to decide how to vote. That's what makes the result difficult to predict.

 

We don't spend enough on health, but throwing more money, no matter what the source, at a screwed up structure will not help. There is no political will to change this. Drop Trident to pay for it.

 

Careful Tram, Swords'll be accusing you of being one of those swivel-eyed right wing Tories

They could start charging patients who fail to turn up to GP appointments. That would be a start.

 

20% at least won't vote at all. I've seen figures of well over 30% of those who intend to vote as yet undecided or thinking of changing their decision. I suppose the pollsters just allocate these proportionately to what the already decided say, but you are right, still considerable uncertainty. Nice thing about the Betfair stuff is you can look at the details of different organisations' predictions. Ashcroft's polls give the Tories 36% of the vote to Labours' 30% and 314 seats......

 

What a swivel-eyed right wing Tory

 

This has a lot of analysis too.

http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html

Prime Minister odds 4/5 Miliband, 5/4 Cameron.

I read that one punter had £30,000 on the Tories at 7/1 to get an overall majority.

 

I think that the Tories will do better than the polls are suggesting. And we know surprises can happen, look at 1992 when Major not only won against expectations, but with over 40% of the vote, much more than Thatcher or Blair ever got.

 

You're right, I understated the undecideds. More like 40%, which is astonishing.

 

What's astonishing is that someone changed their vote from labour, they had 18 and now in breaking news they only have 17, further developments as they occur

 

Ha! The local Labour candidate, Lynette Kelly, has just knocked on my door! We had a brief but intense discussion during which I politey pointed out that, whatever my opinion of the Labour Party, I would struggle to vote for a candidate who had been aggressive to a 17 year old who had been brave enough to chair a public meeting. Also that I don't think having 4 children (a fact repeated about 8 times in her little leaflet) is necessarily a decisive qualification for, say, a junior ministerial role in Defence. She didn't take this well (though the young lad standing behind her was cracking up). She tried to part with a scornful 'well, we would never have had your vote anyway', to which my response was to let her know that I had in fact been a member of the Labour Party, but I no longer classified a party represented by Blair, Balls, Ummunanana and her as having anything in common with the one I joined (which was pretty fatally flawed even then).

A thoroughly satisfactory start to the weekend. I hope Mr Chris White MP, the invisible Tory candidate comes a calling soon. As a former PR manager I'm sure he will be able to explain the difference between debt and deficit.....

My daughter (15) had some inside info on the Lib Dem candidate which was not flattering, and his pamphlet looks like it was written by an 8 year old. UKIP, obviously not, plus I suspect this bloke will not survive the excitement of polling day. Having ruled out all the others looks like my default choice will have to be Green, somewhat to my own surprise. At least the girl standing for them can't be in it for the glory and no one can doubt her sincerity.

 

That was me mate. I started this campaign thinking self interest would lead me to vote Tory, and reflected that on here. I was not comfortable with it to be honest, and the way some of our Tory QPR supporters have expressed themselves on this thread (as is their perfect right) made me switch to my more youthful position of Labour, in full awareness that that was through sentimentality more than any respect for their platform or personnel. The appalling nature of the local candidate (see above) has closed that option off to me, so I have just switched to Green, though I can't really believe they will get my cross when it comes to it.

Stroller's logic was right all along.

 

Nice one Stan.......now for a rather pleasant glass or 2 of wine, an R's win (unlikely) and it wouldn't be a bad weekend.