Two speculative bets tonight as form means nothing in sport and Keniry sometimes pops up with a nice priced winner. Maybe tonight's the night. 8.10 Wolves. GREY GEM 16-1. 8.40 Wolves. MY ANCHOR 12-1.
Before the off I'd have said a draw would have been a great result but it does sound like we should have won. But on the the plus side the chavs of Leeds United can't catch us now so we've guaranteed a finish above them with them still to come to Hillsborough next week (We can only dream of another 6-0!) I have bets on with friends every season (1 Leeds fan, 1 forest fan, 2 Huddersfield fans) we go £5 on result of each time we play and £5 on league finish. I've guaranteed my £5 for finishing above Leeds and hopefully we beat them next week I get the £5 for result aswell. It's almost guaranteed we've finished above Hudds so two more £5 there I'm just hoping we can do Forest aswell, I've yet to get that £5 off me mate so this could be the season!
Watching the race, my immediate thought was that Hughes rode her like a non-stayer. Last season she hit the gate and went in every race but because of the doubts they decided to try and nurse her over the seven furlongs rather than ride her like she would stay – that was a mistake. There is no reason to believe that she will reverse placings with the first two (who had three career starts between them) if she goes to Newmarket so she will be back to sprinting soon. The indifferent form of the O’Brien runners over here this week makes both of the Guineas favourites (at time of writing) opposable. I have always thought that Found is an Oaks filly and I thought that Osaila won the Nell Gwyn a little cheekily and is a big price in an open race. The shape of the market makes Gleneagles look like some sort of certainty because of all the ante post liabilities but at 10/1 bar one I will definitely be taking him on. For both the first two Classics I will be waiting until the day of the race as there are several owners with multiple candidates and they may send some of them to France the following week for the Poulains/Pouliches at Longchamp.
nonsense, been certs the last 4 years, Kingman was a cert beat but a cert none the less you will be struggling to make a case for 2 or 3 to beat the favourite this year, far from a lottery, there could be a Makfi or Night Of Thunder lurking but that doesnt mean its a lottery, just means there was a good horse who went under the radar, the majority of the field will be outclassed on the day and you wont get different results if you run it again as is the case in a lottery
I tipped them both Boris, Makfi and Night Of Thunder. They had very decent form although after his seasonal debut I didn't think Night Of Thunder could actually win. You can usually find an outsider with pretty decent form at a good price in the Guineas.
I certainly wont be getting involved in Gleneagles at short prices. I think he is definitely worth taking on. His performances at 2 where good but they where workmanlike, they weren't anything special. This was why he was 7/1 for the Guineas throughout the winter. The fact he is AOBs number 1 Guineas contender isn't really much of a positive when you look at how poorly his runners have run in the Craven and the Greenham. I think people are underestimating a few of the trial races aswell. Today's Greenham in particular was a very good race IMO. And I could see the first 2 going on to back that form up. It is crazy that they are both still double figure prices. Il be waiting to see what the ground is like on the day, but I won't be backing the favourite at his current short odds. He should be a 4 or 5/1 shot in my opinion
Last years Guineas is the perfect example of why the race is a lottery. Kingman absolutely smashed Night Of Thunder in the Greenham and was in every way the superior horse as his subsequent exploits proved. Quite how and why NOT was able to win the Guineas is still a mystery to me today. Why he kept his 120 rating through 3 subsequent defeats is also mystifying. I still believe the Guineas come too early in the season for them to be given their lofty status. Most horses presence in the field is based on potential/breeding/connections rather than any collateral form which makes the race a punting nightmare (with the odd exceptions like Frankel and Dawn Approach thrown in). I agree with Shergar that the Greenham looked a decent trial. My problem with the Guineas nowadays is that the recognised trials are largely ignored by connections, many of whom opt to go straight to the Guineas. So often there is very little 3 YO form to go on. I assume this is the route they are going with Gleneagles? For what it's worth I think Estidhkaar at the 14/1 still available is a stonking price. He was coming back at Muhaarar towards the line and the extra furlong of the Guineas, maybe with a little more cover, will see him to really good effect. The "outstanding 2 year old form" of Ivawood wasn't worth the paper it was written on.
To be fair Oddy, Night Of Thunder is the only recent example where the best miler hasn't won the 2000 Guineas. Most years the best horse wins. I agree to a point though, the draw bias shouldn't be deciding a classic. This is why I'd limit the number of runners so only the highest rated horses are allowed to enter. I fancy this year were going to get a stupidly big field, due to there being no standout performers so far
I have never analysed the sectionals but Night Of Thunder looked like he came off a breakneck pace and flew home. I always wanted them to give him a sustained run at 10f and to try a mile and a half- his pedigree was up to it. However, I think Hughes and Hannon are horrific when it comes to any horses over 1m2f upwards. Also Fallon gave him the most agressive ride that the horse ever had- Hughes is a different kind of guy but Fallon did seem to eek out more that day.
Simple: I was standing next to Kingman’s trainer with an ante post betting slip on his horse whilst the race was run. Just as well for the late Sir Henry that I did not have a bet on Frankel. It will be interesting to see how Night Of Thunder does this term – kept in training presumably because winning a Classic alone is no guarantee of a career at stud. Agreed – if he runs.
A lot of stables not really firing. Gosden seems to have got off to a good start again. Hannon is mixed, as he was last year. Stoute is a slow-starter again. any feeling on AOB? Good to see Beckett getting a Guineas trial win. Fascinating that she's by the maligned Cockney Rebel. Tiggy Wiggy goes for the 1000G and Hughes said he wouldn't have won at 5f. He's pretty straight and she hsan't come to hand or not trained on. Performance of the week: Kool Kompany in my book. Couldn't be more exposed, giving away weight yet bravely won a good trial.
There is a lot of guesswork Oddy because its early in the season and im not saying its always going to be easy to find the winner, but agree with Shergar, the best miler or a top class middle distance horse usually wins it, and the cream always rises in the race, just that we dont always know for sure what the cream is before the race! With Kingman I think the combination of the split field, firm ground and Doyle going too soon got him beat. I know Night Of Thunder wasnt the best miler but he proved the rest of the season he was a Group 1 miler despite not winning, he was only beaten a half length twice by Charm Spirit who was unbeaten bar the Guineas as a 3yo and would have been unbeaten had he run in the French Guineas. That was a strong Guineas last year and there was no fluke about the winner, he was good on the day. I wouldnt be interested in Gleneagles either at the prices, nor at any price in a good Guineas, you normally have to have shown more quality or potential to be 2/1 fav for the Guineas, but his price is a result of the other big names dropping like flies, his connections and the apparent lack of a standout against him. I think the Greenham was a solid race, it looked the best trial beforehand, but you wanted to see something win it well and while the first two will be good horses, they are nothing special, that said, you wont need to be to win this years race so they could be overpriced. I think Ride Like The Wind 40/1 is quite interesting, he won from last off a slow pace in that French trial and Freddy Head seems to think he has "not learned to race yet and will be very good when he does". The form wont amount to much but at least he has some gears and in a year like this he could be overpriced.
I agree with Eddie that James Doyle went a little to early on Kingman, however it was a hard race to ride on a red hot favourite when the field split into 2 packs, as it's difficult to judge how far ahead or not the other side was. What I suggest they do in future is have faulse rails up all the way down until there's about 3 furlongs to run, and then they can end so horses can be moved out for a run. This would ensure that every horse had to run down the middle, and would stop jockeys from trying to steal a classic, on an average horse, by luckily guessing which side was running fastest
