Off Topic The QPR Not 606 Rolling Election Poll

So the Conservatives are promising us all some of this...

 

Do we all get a Good Life DVD box set if they get in?

 

The Tories and Cameron are far from perfect but when Milliband and Labour are the alternative it's really no contest for me.

 

Apparently we all get an allotment in Surbiton and a goat called Geraldine.

 

Good Life? We don't need no stinkin Good Life!

 

Classic!

 

If UKIP are to ban unskilled immigrants, will we have to send Sandro back?

 

I'll vote for anyone as long as they'll still pay towards SWP's nursery costs.

 

On the subject of 'funded' vs 'unfunded' pledges, the Tory line on a strong economy will come straight from the OBR and IFS figures and forecasts. These are the ones that they base all their sound bytes on. It's dangerous when Labour try that trick because the numbers for a labour led economy don't look anywhere near as strong.

Basically : if you want a strong economy and the benefits of that, vote Tory. It means paying more tax, but only as a result of earning more. If you want the burden of paying for stuff to be funded by borrowing more and by more rounds of QE, then vote Labour. And if you're truly mad and want to be a fish, vote UKIP.

 

Wibble, wibble. Glub, glub.

 

Well the Liberal Democrats are taking the piss. Their manifesto is 158 pages long, how can I inaccurately skim read that, it's longer than "Heart of Darkness" - but is usefully divided into chapters, has lots of pictures and text boxes and is downloadable. It's yellowy orange colour scheme is a bit off putting. Presumably it's so long to help them convince themselves they've got the soul that they sold back.

Top marks for getting the phrase 'eating disorders' into their vision for the UK 2020. Arresting policy - build 10 new 'garden cities where they are needed most'. Forgive me if I'm wrong, but I don't think there is room for 10 'garden cities' in London. Might get a couple on the Royal Parks I suppose.

 

That was a Party Political Broadcast on behalf of the Conservative Party.

 

Right, the UKippers......have launched their manifesto (titled "Believe in Britain" which poses several interesting philosophical questions, and subtitled 'My Struggle'*), but I was unable to find a link to it on their website. Now, I may have misssed something, but this is entirely in line with the average kipper level of competence. So my in depth analysis is culled from press coverage, in particular the Guardian, which very courteously published the salient points with only brief and very neutral comments. From them I know that it is 76 pages long, the punchiest so far** but sadly I don't know how many pictures, text boxes or bullet points it has.

[EDIT] Stop press - they have now up loaded it and I can confirm it includes pictures, chapters, bullet points and text boxes. Phew. And, of course, it's purple.

The essence seems to be 'build a wall around England and Wales and get foreigners (including the Scots) to pay for everything, especially the enormous tax cuts for everyone.' Interesting constitutional proposals - a referendum every 2 years with anything 2 million of us (we know what 'us' means in this context, right) want on the voting paper, and the right to recall MPs if 20% of their constituents demand it. Careful what you wish for Nige.

I note that UKIP is only 1 vote behind Labour on the QPR Not606 Rolling Poll of Polls. Trust me proto Kippers, lowest denominator populism always ends in tears.

* Not really

**Al Murray's FUKP wins the prize, he tweeted his five point manifesto (including free dogs for all) which was literally written on the back of a *** packet.

 

Just watched Evan Davis interviewing Cameron on the telly. Now Evan has never recovered in my eyes from the brilliant Paul Whitehouse impersonation

but this left me really wondering about what a political interviewer is for. God forbid we go back to the ultra deferential days, but this was nuts, he had one aim, to put Cameron under pressure for being the friend of the 'rich', including dragging up ancient (1992) clips of Peter Lilley slagging of welfare recipients, and talking over him at every opportunity. Evan sat next to that twat John Humphreys for too long. Cameron dealt with it ok, though obviously a bit cross, and had clearly got his own way in being the first of these interviews, so it will be forgotten by the time people vote. Of course Evan allowed him to finish with the Tory soundbites 'trust us with the economy" and 'aaargh Labour /SNP Medusa!!!!'. But Chaz and Col could have delivered them more sincerely.

 

Are you presuming that I am voting Tory Stan?

I thought Cameron coped very well with Evan's prodding. So many interruptions from the interviewer are, though, a pain in the arse. It would be nice to let the interviewee actually answer a question.
It reminds me of a fantastic put down from Eric Pickles, who I think was being interview by Jeremy Vine. He was constantly interrupted until he snapped and said "I'm sorry, are my answers getting in the way of your questions?". Classic!

 

I confess to being a bit of a layman in economics but surely basing the usual electoral bribes (read manifesto) on estimates would paradoxically mean that the forecasts already know the content of said manifestos.

In my simplistic view, over my lifetime, both the Tories and Labour have led us into a recession.

 

I'd make a guess in that direction Col, and I'm pretty sure you're not voting Labour or Green.....but I was referring to Cameron's parting shot of the spectre of a Labour government in cahoots with the SNP, which I have gained the impression you may be equally against. I genuinely believe you express your feeling on that subject with more sincerity, and certainly more force!

 

I'm sort of tempted to vote Lib Dem. Not that any one vote makes a difference in a reasonably safe seat but this is more about which of the minor parties joins a coalition and I quite like Clegg.

Would be typical if the first year I'm making good money bloody Milliband goes and takes half. A lower sixth economics student could explain the benefits of a simple, low tax system.

 

Yes I won't be happy if the SNP have a say in things.
I've had a look at the main policies in most of the manifestos now and the Torries look the most inviting to me.

 

Interesting stuff in the news about a disagreement between the OBR and the IMF on forecasts for the next few years - in overall terms (i.e the size of the economy v the size of the disagreement - £14bn) the difference is minimal, a rounding error, but it would mean under the IMF forecasts (which assume a hung Parliament) we would be in deficit whereas the OBR assumption of a majority Government puts us in surplus. The OBR has not correctly forecast growth/decline for a single quarter's figures since it was set up (consistently underestimating both). Again though the discrepancies are quite small (though enough to impact Government tax income expectations by a few hundred million either way).

Since the war average annual GDP growth has been 2.6%. It averages the same whichever party is in power. The 4 recessions since 1948 started in 1973 (Tory), 1979 (Tory), 1991 (Tory) and 2008 (Labour). The first and last (which was by far the worst) were definitely caused by the workings of global capitalism - the oil crisis and the sub prime/banking fiasco. The other two can also be blamed on the mysterious 'business cycle' but were made much worse by restrictive/deflationary monetary policies by right wing governments in the USA and UK. Thank you Milton Friedman for your cretinous voodoo economics.

In short a Tory government does not equal a strong economy. History proves it. Though I do think that the relatively strong years of 1997-2008 under New Labour/Tory Lite were built on foundations put in place by Ken Clarke. How the Tories could elect Howard, IDS, Hague (who has grown on me over the years) and Cameron as their leader when Clarke was available is beyond me.