Off Topic Werewolves

I think we have a plan falling into place in as much as some people have raised specific suspicions based on behaviour or lack of it.

My current vote is for AFCFWT based on complete inactivity, However that was the basis for Tash's removal last night. If we are going to lose a villager then it is better to lose an inactive non voting one than an active voter. However GLITF also sat back and didn't vote despite posting. This was also highly suspicious. These two are among the ones I am suspecting more than others.I will either leave my vote where it is or change fairly late in the day if needed to oust the person with tghe best combination of suspicion and chance of being top of the vote. The one thing we want to avoid though is another tied vote.

 

Sounds like a reasonable plan. As you mentioned inactive townies are useless to us. As for any hard evidence and very suspicious wolf activity we could put into a tie and see if they get saved. That way we can see voting activity as well as removing 1 townie/wolf who is 'inactive' and one who we are suspicious who would be up for the lynch the next day anyway (and potentially grab information if they get saved).

1 less night fall for the wolves to kill.

 

you wrote this an i replied

 

may i say 2 things.

1. yes you are right when the end of the game come sinto view its far better to have active town than inactive

2. on the other hand the wolves will let us kill town all game long so if nobodys bother and this suits them they will leave it too...


i think both sides have merit. I do feel the thing is we don't know which is which if an easy out is offer wolves will take it.

Is it too asy just to lynch all inactive?

I have also seen the points on Glitf and they have some circumstantial merit

 

Thats my point with what i posted above. If we all feel Glitf is guilty and we are happy to let inactive players not get away with it, under rolandos rules we could put both up for lynching which works out great for us (better to get rid of the deadweight earlier and/or wolves)

 

Right, thag was a lot to get through.

my initial thoughts habing skimmed through once.

MITO and Less Hope seem tk be making good sense about tactics, so either they are very good at bluffing, or are likely Villagers. As somebody mentioned, thd bad guys will mess ip at domd point ifthey keep posting. Will watch carefully, but their arguments stack up so far.

IBWT has also been very active (as usual) with theories, which helps the debate. BUT, I do have issue with the potential for werewolves to manipulate the vote and, more importantly, his eagerness to out both the doc and seer so early in the game. This looks very suspicious to me. Definitely on red alert.

Looking at the tags, I am inclined to trust Morgan, unless I am being played by the werewolves. Will keep an eye out.

GLITF ismy main suspect due to inactivity despite being logged in. especially last night with staying out of the vote.

I also don't like how quiet AFCFTW is especially based on his 2 different styles in Liverpool Mafia. On red alert.

Bobby, Funky, Valley all hard yo read as just pop in now anc then. On watch.

Great Escape would normally be more vocal I think. Possible suspicion there. And he keeps using the excuse of fat jokes to just throw my name in every now and then. on watch.

ACS again, woukd normally be more active and isjust making ranfom comments that don't help determine who the eolves might be. On watch.

Ithink that's everyone?

 

Think so. FYI Biscans 1 vote for everyone tactic was what i proposed in the 1st round (minus the outing of the ever important doctor ).

 

please do note that boht in a tie get lynched.

In the end ok if a suspicious dies and a town inactive dies it is better for wolves for sure.



I am thinking though that there should be real evidence out there right now for the town team. The doctor knows who he protected. The seer knows either one or two names? (not sure which)

this mean that while i don't want either to reveal themsevles they should be able to draw up their own list.

e. g.

12 names:

1 am doctor/seer
I know X is innocent

that leaves 10 or 9 names 3 of which are wolves.

already it is a 1/3 shot for seer to find a wolf! interesting that.


The way i see this going is the evidence is piling on one side and the deaths on the other. There is a tipping point somewhere along the way where either the seer has enough names to come out and say this is known innocent team and the wolves can't do a thing OR the wolves kill enough and we town lynch enough that were on this seer list that the wolves win before the seer can reveal all.

The question both sides are prob asking is who to investigate/kill next.

We lowly town have to try and not do the wolves job for them IMO. We cannot say today X or y is a wolf. But equally we have to hope that our logic doesn't see us kill the doctor or seer in a lynch.


So:

1. Say town lynch a town, wolves kill a town tonight. that makes it 3 v 7. there is a chance some known innocent goes in those numbers. but say they do not.

by tomorrow if seer is alive he should know the names of himself and 3 others out of the 7 meaning he will then have 3 mafia hiding in 7 unknown names. that would be his worst case if he is just hitting town with investigation.

For the wolves they are playing 3 x 9 right now so they have a 2 in 9 shot of killing our roles


2. If the same trend occurs.

If tomorrow we again kill a town and they kill one too that means it is 3 v 5

If the seer again survives. he will know a good deal. in the next 4 kills chances are he will lose known innocents but he should have at least 4 people in the next couple of days to rely on.

that means if the seer lives long enough they should be able to reveal themselves and a team.

THE DANGER IS THE WOLVES KNOW IT TOO. THEY CAN FAKE THIS TOO SO WE HAVE TO VET THE REVEAL.

anyway.... i think this is clear, the no recruit i think make this game a straight out race and bluffers game. If we can build a town team and trust it we can win. The danger is the tipping point is where 3 wolves can turn a 3 v 5 into 3 of them plus one and win a lynch vote by deception.

Hmmmmm... fun options to think about.

.........................................

now my other thought.... the doctor.

He knows who he tried to save. But so do the wolves. This really is down to a few thoughts.

1. the wolves chose at random and got unlucky in hitting a random.

2. The doctor protected himself so the wolves will make him prime target. Doctor whoever you are if this is the case don't say it. wolves may return

3. The doctor formed a suspicion of who the wolves might go for and read them. In which case good work. The wolves may or may not strike again there.

As i was thinking about numbers i can see the doctor preventing a kill has been a big help to the town as it puts another team member in the town's pocket.

Its almost like the chaser game on tv... if the town can stay ahead of the wolves they win so the doctor saving one of us means we are that bit further ahead.

I hope we don't lynch a bad un.

 

Ok, I missed that. I just saw him repeatedly say that HE had come up with a plan thag was surefire tk win for Village.that said, I kniw he always throws these things in, regardless of role, so that's why he's not my top suspect - yet.

 

Don't get me wrong fella, I'm not crying wolf with you, but I think you have a large role. Don't know what to think. It's a hard game isn't it?

 

so.

I am wondering as a result.

the inactive vote.

logic:

1. doctor and seer should be active relatively. paying attention we hope.

2. wolves are probably active. usually at lease one of a team has to be out sewing discord.

3. Inactives are usually but not always town. its a case of 3 v 11 at the outset means majority were town anyway.

So if we lynch an inactive and learn nothing from it it is a bad thing.

If we lynch and inactive and learn something out of it... maybe its something

If we lynch a wolf its great.

If we simply vote an inactive and everyone does then the wolves can hide their votes about or not vote or be part of lynch and really we can't tell.

therefore i'd add to morgan's point that lets get a list of 3 people and apply some votes. we don't want a tie though or a risk of a tie in the end as both die. any tie is heavily in wolf favor as they can get two kills for price of one...

If all 3 names are inactives thugh... we wont learn a thing cos they won't talk and wolves most likely will sit back

 

As far as I can see we are not going Biscans, but are going to vote either GLITF or AFC or both? Is this correct?

I have just had a look over last nights events, as last night I was pretty convinced I'd be voting MITO today as I thought the late switcheroo is always a concern. Either that or Biscan who subsequently jumped. MITO then accused and said to Valley "I think they should kill me to prove it" Now I find myself voting neither??? MITO seemed convinced he had outed Biscan and Valley. Why are you now not convinced MITO?

 

It is.

I have run the games on the LFC board so i never get to play.

I have said though i am a lowly townsperson. I don't have a role. I just annoy everyone with random logic and thoughts cos i never get to exhaust them running games as i have to try to shut up when i do!

 

I'd be happy to stick 2 to a tie tonight. 1 that we suspect of being a wolf and 1 inactive (who could also be a wofl)

 

You did, I included that post number in my assessment. But you clearly said you hadn't seen me post(post 401). Did you forget or were you just trying to slip a little lie threw the net to try and deflect the heat a bit?

 

Good points. It relies on the seer and doc surviving at least another night. That will partly be chance.

the doc saving last night was massive. The wolves won't know whether the doc saved themself, or another.so do they risk going for the same target anc potentially losing another kill? Dicneeds tk play this smart and DO NOT REVEAL yet.

Maybe by tomorrow, if doc and seer still alive, there might be a team of 5+. It will then be a case of can we trust whoever makes the claim to be doc/seer?

 

good question.

I felt day one i have to sew a bit of confusion and not let people be comfortable. I learned this from BRB who wnet nuts on one of our games and caused a mistake.

I have voted IBWT so far today as i felt he jumped off Valley as fast as he could when he saw what i did.

my vote is still on him.... he is not doing anything about it though... valley has not been on. I can;t really tell with him but there were a couple of votes here and there last night. I thought the best thing i could do last night was not let one guy go down to i switched for a 2/2/2 vote (not sure but i think others even up too)

Now you are of course within your rights to suspect me as a result.

I m trying to post everything i can think of to aid the towns cause today however including any ways the wolves might take advantage so hopefully that at least helps the cause in the end.

In our game BRB ended up getting himself lynched on day one due to all the mad voting but it did reveal info.

I don't think we got that much yesterday.

 

Well that's why It's tough for me as a new player, most of you posters I know nowt about. You and InBiscanWeTrust are very talky, but that could just well be your playing style. If I'm taken out the game I'm still going to follow it as it will come in handy for future games. Anyway, enough of the small talk. I'm on to you.

 

I might have missed I can look... I am not trying to slip any lies in but if i were it'd have to be a good un surely cos theres not as much heat on my approach as i thought there'd be.

 

this is the one right....

Yes i obviously forgot from yesterday to this.