Off Topic Werewolves

so i'd encourage all players to do this:

take each player on list ask ask yourself what do you know:

The Real Morgan Freeman - started out well yesterday and i prodded for stuff. i left him be. today i ask for talk and he says i'm being to pushy despite him also asking. he could use me to talk but chooses the other route: therefore i am on alert

Alberts Chip Shop - no idea as have not talked

Funky Dick - ive no idea, has not seen a post

The Great Escape - seems logic and is on the thread. ergo a live player. like all to be watched then.

Less Hope Than Neville - as above - is in live play so to be watched

BobbyD - is playing, is under the radar as per all other games i've seen. so far not seeing a tell. still watching

InBiscanWeTrust - my problem: jumped off valley when i threw a vote on him. very reactive. i suspect that. He is also being forceful on a tactic and so i am suspcious.

ValleyGraduate12 - reacted to my vote then changed votes. but then it was to save himself. active perio is later? still watching

ObiWan - in live play but have not talked enough... again still watched

MoreInjuredThanOwen - i know i'm a lowly townsperson. think about that. however i have been playing the game. yesterday i was just throwing stuff about seeing who might react on the basis that those who know stuff may do so whereas people who dont miss stuff. this will create an impression of course.. today i want to go through actual evidence and real talk and see what we can come up with

GeordieLassintheFen - ibwt suggest a tell. it is a fair call but has issues. i feel that we dont know enough. did the werewolves get their pms before town so they could kill... still watching. needs to talk

AFCFTW - is being very quiet. it is a bit suspicious based on other games but that is not a tell yet. am watching it.

 

It's hard, theres not much information going around just a bunch of people accusing each other. We deffo need to open up some avenues for extracting some confessions Everyone being quiet doesn't help the cause.

 

Confession never happen but tells do

I don't think anyone seeking to engage someone is suspicious btw, that's why I am openly doing it

People who are town work for town

Wolves seek to hide within same scheme but don't act to help town

This period is all about the lynch. If it's going the wolves way they can continue to hide so my view is people all need to be prodded to talk

If we simply throw up 2/3 for lynch or indeed follow a plan the natural thing is everyone shuts up and no info is gained

By all means let's think about "the plan" but discussing pro and cons is not anti town

Let's all talk

 

There wouldn't be, as in order to save themselves they could only make 3 people tie so even if they killed 3 innocents, we'd still outnumber them. As I say if everyone was on board and could sort it I think it's a winning tactic but it's risky

 

How would we outnumber them? There is a flaw in your logic somewhere. You are relying on the wolves sitting back and doing nothing too much.

 

Because if 10 of us all vote for each other and have 1 vote then we all die and Dr lives - we win.

If if one wolf changed then 9 have 1 vote and 1 has 2 votes. 9 survive 1 dies but we pretty sure the one that didn't follow plan is a wolf.

Same if 2 and if 3 do it then max they can do is put 3 diff people on 2 votes... Meaning 7 survive, 3 dead. Them 3that didn't follow the lead are probably wolves so the 7 survive plus Dr would outnumber them etc

 

I agree if everyone follows along the best the werewolves can do is kill 3 people by tie vote.

This means in my view it would be 3 v 5 best case for werewolves... assuming they can kill someone as well tonight

lets think about this

1. 4 out of 12 is 33% of players in one fell swoop. Damage to town is potential loss of doctor and/or seer.. or non depending.. we can't know. we should still consider that

2. 3 v 5 means that 3 peoepl switched votes late in theory. that means they are known wolves so there should be a lynch lynch lynch policy following this. lets lay it out

day 3 we lynch wolf one.
Night 3 they kill one of us (assuming doctor doesn't save)

result is 2 v 4

Day 4 we lynch wolf two
Night 4 they kill

result is 1 v 3.

so in theroy at least the idea stands up to scrutiny.

How about this scenario:

1. Wolves split votes. wolf one votes per plan. wolf 2 and 3 vote at 7:59 for others

2. result is 3 v 6 worst case if they kill

3. the same scenario occurs. 25% of town dies may seer dies. maybe not. 3 v 6 kills two of them, they kill 2 of us. ergo 1 v 4.

4. 5 players left we do not know who the wolf is. 1 v 4 sounds like a strong town position but if seer is alive. Presume the town then does another style of plan given all should have followed plan and lynched


Still a strong plan

how about this scenario then

1. wolves go along with the plan knowing someone will break as nobody wants to die foolishly.

2. someone breaks the plan somewhere.

3. someone dies on town team due to double vote, town round on him... wolves have 2 kills both days... 3 v 5 is the restul.

not so hot.



So this plan needs three things in my view

1. It needs everyone to agree and stick to it.

2. it needs SOMEONE or TWO someones to not be voted for (we have 12 votes, if 10 people have 1 vote each then two have to not vote. who gets to live and who decides who gets to live

3. Point 2 means point 3 must be does the plan require the revealing of a power town role to work?

 

Ok..

There are 12 players left.

Definitely 3 of them are wolves

Definitely 1 is the Dr (as he saved someone last night - possibly himself)

Possibly 1 is the Seer (unless Tash or Tasty were the Seer)

Either 7 or 8 are normal villagers.

We know that the Dr knows at least 1 person (himself) is a villager and possibly 1 other (if he didn't save himself). For the benefit of this we'll say he saved someone else.

In order to win we need at least the Dr to survive which means they need to make themselves known - and if he/she makes themselves known then they can say who they saved too - which gives us 2 known innocents that we agree not to vote for.

At this point Wolf 1 makes himself known as the Doctor and states that he saved Wolf 2.

We now have to decide which 'Doctor and patient' to save.

At this point the Seer (if they are alive) may have info that one (or even two) of the people mentioned are either villagers or wolves. They speak up and say 'I am the Seer and the first Doctor is telling the truth' (but only if they have been lucky enough to ask about one of the people mentioned).

Regardless of anything else, Wolf 3 now speaks up and says 'I am the Seer and the second Doctor is telling the truth'

We are no further forward.

We either guess which group to believe and risk leaving 3 wolves if we are wrong, or we save everyone mentioned and leave it level (until the wolves late voting switch leaves it with only 3 wolves).

Either way there is a major possibility of losing and it is a bad tactic.

 

So in short this requires everyone to sign a suicide pact hoping that the wolves do not act.

it requires PROOF that the person who we are leaving is in fact innocent.

and it requires enough to survive to carry game on.


so lets take it form anothe rangle.

What if the town save this action one more day to try and get a known innocent.. what happens?

1. Town lynches someone, wolves kil lsomeone. that would mean we could be 3 v 7 by this time tomorrow.

2. in that scenario the wolves could then use the plan to kill 3 plus then kill at night. that would mean the wolves win.

3. If town did hit a wolf the thing flips and town wins

Ergo.... Potentially this plan is now or never.

so I'd suggest everyone thinks and says yes/no and doesnt just go along with it out of fear they get called wolf by IBWT just cos he's putting it forward today.

Everyone has a right to their own say.

MY view is.... there are too many things that can go wrong and if i were a wolf i'd want to know the doctors name big time. I'd even be thinking right now as a wolf that if this was going down i'd be better off shouting i'm the doctor now or be ready with a claim to counter wh othe doctor is cos thats the best way to sew confusion.

The first premise is who gets left alive... if they go and do a tie and ONE wolf is left alive the wolves win instantly. think about it.

2 people left standing, wolves are happy. they let two die one live. that wolf kill the last perosn that night..... not pretty.

We need to be absolutely sure the dr and protectee are real. how can we do this... i'd like that answer next.

 

If i were a wolf i'd not reveal myself and another wolf as my protectee i'd pick someone who looks ike a wolf would kill them...

All they need is fuzzyness enough for one or two to fail to follow the plan.

 

My point was just that the potential is there for us to be wiped out in 1 day with this tactic. I am strongly against this and strongly against the Doctor making themselves known. The only people who will want the Doctor to make themselves known are the wolves.

 

I think thats is a fair view

I also think its fair to tease the plan out fully.

 

Massive amount of info to take in here. I will look back through all the comments since Rolando's announcement, as there has been a lot of chat and 'theories'. One thing I will say though, is we cannot allow a split vote tonight as it only favours the werewolves as far as I can see.

I still think I agree with Morgan Freeman about having some sort of system and sticking to it. When we played the other game the BI just kept trying a new tactic every night and it did no favours.

 

Problem we have is that Rolo has decreed that any tied vote then both (or more) will be lynched and not just a coin flip. Therefore it is difficult to try and set up a scenario where 2 or 3 people are up for lynching and then watch voting patterns.

If we get it wrong then 2 or 3 Villagers are lynched by the rest of us.

Seer should have some info but difficult to see if he can share without disclosing who he is and then becoming target. Doctor could save him each night so long as we don't lynch the Doctor or for the Doctor to be hit by Wolfies.

Plans are

1 Try and put everyone up for lynching - bit risky and open to wolfies to late manipulate
2. Pick 3 names and see if can id voting swings and patterns - may have to lose some to gain info
3. Pick one suspicious name - hard to go for patterns and initially open to odds in favour of wolfies

Thoughts.

My preference would probs still go for 3 names.

 

My head is hurting trying to keep up here.
The tags look a red herring for sure.
I'm certain (gut feel) that.. looking back at Rolando... he will have picked at least one if not two of Toon lads as Wolves and most likely a non Toon poster or two as the other one.
It would be too obvious to make all 3 Toon lads wolves IMHO.

 

What about Villager not acting. eg Tash yesterday

Also what if 3 wolfies withdraw vote at last second leaving Villagers all with one vote.

 

Kill all 4. Dr should take one for the team knowing we've potentially lost 2 villagers but also we'd have killed 2 wolves, that's 66% of the team!

Just read the the rest about If someone claims to be seer and the other one does as well then even better, get all 6 in a tied vote and kill them all.

The he real townies should be happy about that as they sacrifice themselves for te town win... Wolves won't like that because they all die and lose.

 

Common sense would surely intervene then I reckon.
It would kill the game with the wolfies running amok then.
For me the key will be if we nail one of the wolves and the pattern of last minute voting.
That will be the biggest tell.

 

Less hope seems very against a sure fire (albeit slightly risky) plan that would see us win...

 

Ok, a possibility I hadn't considered - fair point. I still think it is open to manipulation from the wolves though with a late change meaning we lose 2 villagers plus 1 more at night and it is suddenly 6v3 - or worse still they follow MITO's suggestion and say they protected a villager and we lose 3 villagers plus 1 at night and it is 5v3 with only 1 wolf obvious.

Too risky. Our doc is our biggest defence and i wouldn't want to lose him/her.