Match Day Thread Liverpool v Newcastle United - Official Buildup / Matchday Thread

You're not having another RHC moment, are you?

 

I would hope it be. When I am painting I don't like to leave holes , don't make-do on the left or the right and generally I like to see my paint cover the whole area evenly and consistently...

 

I have laid Newcastle again. The only problem at 9s I am not going to get a huge return on my usual risk as I tend to trade out around half time. But, I am putting in another offer for a lower price lay (which I don't expect to get) and then see what happens.

If Liverpool put in two before the half hour I may do what I never do and 'gamble' by letting the lay run. I don't know. I may just walk the dog on the beach and forget about the trade and just take it as a position.

Whatever happens I can't see Newcastle getting three points here.

 

Care to tell an old fashioned soul what that means in English.

 

A bit of background; I make my living from backing horses on the exchanges, noteably Betfair. So, I am guilty of assuming prior knowledge for which I apologise for. But to translate...

In punting parlance one either backs or lays. One is the other side to the other in the equation. If you went into the bookies on a Saturday morning and backed Many Clouds at 25/1 then the bookmaker would be laying you that wager. In other words you think that an event will happen and you back it, the layer thinks it won't and he lays it.

So, I have laid Newcastle again. I have laid them for my usual risk which is about £200 at (rounding up) 9/1, if Newcastle win I lose £200 but if they lose or draw I win about £22. Not a fantastic return but still lower than my my limit of around 10/1. I have also offered to lay them again at around 8/1 for the same stake if anyone is foolish to go that low (in other words is there anyone out there wishing to take 8/1 to win?).

I normally don't gamble on football. I instead 'trade'. In other words I don't let the match play out but take a profit when it comes. I only do this for Newcastle because they are so predictably crap at the moment. I lay them, as a rule to risk about £200. For the Sunderland game I laid them at 2/1 which meant that I was accepting a stake of £100 and I was hoping that Newcastle wouldn't win.

Newcastle rarely score before half time and doubly rarely before the half hour mark. So, I sit and listen to the game or watch the scores come in as they happen. If the opposition score then the price on Newcastle goes up massively. For example, if Liverpool score first then the price on Newcastle may go out to 30/1. So I put two bets on; one bet for the win and one for the draw and because the price would have gone up significantly I can work out the stakes (or let Betfair do it for me) so that I will make a profit of about £40-£80 on the game no matter what the result is after that point.

If it gets to half time then I trade out. Now, what also happens is that, as a rule by then because no-one has scored the odds on the draw price will go down which means that the odds on either of the two teams will go out slightly. So at around 30-35 minutes I trade out. I may make about £10-£15 profit at this stage. At this point i don't care what the result is, the profit is bagged.

Ah, but what if Newcastle score? Well, this is where things can get tricky but suffice it to say that even if I were hit for this amount I am significantly in profit this season to take a hit. I suppose I am due a hit but it hasn't got me this season yet.

If Newcastle are away then what I may do is to lay them again. The match is only less than a third gone by now and we know what Newcastle are like at holding leads. And this time the price will be very low perhaps evens. Sooner or later the other team will score, as we all know, and I can get out a profit.

None of the above is what I term to be gambling as it's a calculated strategy and it works well with Newcastle and is about the only joy I am getting out of the team this season. Note that I aim to be out of the match early and not to gamble on the result.

If Liverpool do score early enough I may decide to break a habit of a lifetime and stay in with the position. If they get a second then I will trade out for a very good profit (trading out at this point would be assured at least 95% of my bet if I let it run. And going for that five percent would be simply gambling and is to be frowned upon) unless I have taken the dog out onto the beach or something.

I mentioned the Sunderland game. I laid Newcastle at around 2/1 and traded out for about £20 profit when, seconds later, Sunderland scored. I could have made a lot more if I had waited but it was getting to the half hour mark and it was time to get out. I have no qualms with that; it was just unfortunate and that's the way that I do things when it comes to my footie trading (i.e. Newcastle), racing or even the stock market trading: have a working plan, stick to it and keep on going even through the bad patches and if the plan is good enough then it will do me proud.

There you go. A translation. Hope that it helps.

 

Like a bit of Monday night footy, hope it's a good game.

 

Hopefully Liverpool will turn up and destroy us. I suspect though that they won't need to try hard.

 

So what doyou advise me to do with my bet of 3-0 to Newcastle with Riviere scoring a hat trick?

 

I don't think you need a gambling professional to offer advice on that one!!!

 

Honest answer. I wouldn't know. Those sorts of bets; scorers, scorelines, corners and the like is just 'gambling' as far as I am concerned and are markets to be avoided.

 

I think I can help on this one.

It's not actually called "gambling" on this sort of bet, it's called stupidity or insanity. The best thing Less Than can do is actually book himself into the nearest Psychiatric Hospital for a long course of therapy.

 

Tim Krul; Ryan Taylor, Daryl Janmaat, Mike Williamson, Jack Colback; Vernun Anita, Mehdi Abeid, Moussa Sissoko, Remy Cabella, Gabriel Obertan; Ayoze Perez

 

I sense a hammering. 4-0 me thinks.

 

Looking at our team you have every chance if you go for it.

 

are you on about relegation

 

I've seen us **** these games up too often... Nervy 1-0 or 2-1 for me (to us mind)

Look at our defence!

 

If we don't win this 3-1 Pardew has to go.

 

Cant see us avoiding defeat tonight, but, at least the starting XI looks better than last week.
No Sammy or Gouffran can only be a good thing.

 

Team. Krul. Anita. Willo, Janmaat, Raylor. Colback, Abeid, Sissoko, Cabella, Obertan, Perez.
subs, Elliot, Sterry, Sami, Goof, Jonas, Arma, & Rivierre

 

What is this defence of which you speak?