Bet 365 are giving back half the stake as a free bet on EW bets in the National, which makes the following bet even better as they are also best priced Grand National Royal Knight 33-1 EW with Bet 365 This horse's handling this year will be seen as a masterstroke if this comes off, one warm up run and then an emphatic victory by 16 lengths to raise his mark to a perfectly judged 139 to get him an as bottom weight, then the mark is protected by running him in two unsuitable hurdle races to maintain fitness, then comes to the Grand National with a very good light weight up and coming jockey booked and win the thing. The trainer also saddles last years winner who should also not be under estimated at around 25-1 and carrying only 8lb more than a year ago.
Chance Du Roy in the big un ew. Decent 6th last year and with a better passage this time could improve on that. Also had a bit ew on Henryville in the stayers and Little King Robin in the conditional hurdle. The former ran a blinder in the Pertemps lugging a big weight round. The latter has some decent form in Ireland including a defeat of Artic Fire earlier in the season. Should appreciate the ground too. Good luck all.
She should give you a cracking bit of value from the front end Chan, would be great if she won, runs her heart out and is an honest as they come.
No chance of having as good a day today as the past 2 but will give it a go. 1.30 - Parlour Games & Seedling EW - Parlour Games is a notorious hold up horse and is very good at using his flat speed to make up ground near the finish, he has done that to great effect all season but was never going to catch impressive neptune winner. Had the beating of Nichols Canyon in 3rd who still seems to be too keen and its costing him too much. This ground is right up his street and the two of them are miles clear on form with the others. A saver will be put on Seedling, i had him for the Supreme but he unseated frustratingly early he has good form all season and is actually highest rated in the field. Should stay the trip without any problem. 2.05 - God's Own - I am struggling to understand why he isnt odds on. He gave Un Des Sceaux something to think about storming up the hill, finishing 13 lengths in front of the 151 rated Count Minstrel who reopposes today and thrives off fast ground. He seems to come alive at this time of year, winning the Ryanair novices at Punchestown last May. He we relish the stiff test and should sit handy behind 1 of the expected Nicholls front runners. 2.50 - Zarkandar - A mighty performance from Cole Harden to make all in the World Hurdle and i believe the 2 Nicholls horses gave him too much respect that day thinking they would reel him in but couldnt quite manage. The selection made a hash of 2 out costing him any chance of winning when still travelling smoothly and has a liking for the course winning at this festival twice already. The Nicholls horses have been in great form for the past 2 days and can see them getting on the board for Saturday with the winner here. 3.25 - Bobowen - Runs here off a mark of 135, 2 lbs higher than when he won easily at Market Rasen on good ground. He has missed most of this season but had a pipe opener over a distance far too short which should put him spot on for today. Dr Newlands certainly knows how to ready a horse for a big handicap. 4.15 - Royale Knight / Cause of Causes / First Lieutenant - Dr Newlands looks like hes worked a bit of magic here, hes managed to scrape Royale Knight in at the bottom of the handicap. To win a marathon like this you need to stay and thats what he does. Hes already won a race over 4 miles and he has a liken for better ground. Giving the trainer won the race the previous year im sure he has schooled this lad well over the national fences and im curious as to wether the weight was the deciding factor in Jacob riding last years winner instead of him. My selection if he made it in would have been Broadway Buffalo, him and Cause of Causes bounded clear up the Cheltenham hill in the 4 miler and wasnt stopping at the line, he gets similar ground conditions today and has the perfect jockey on board in Carberry who is a master of switching a horse off at the back to pick them off 1 by 1 in the final circuit. Being by Presenting First Lieutenant has bundled of stamina in his pedigree but is obviously straying into the unknown but he is a good ground horse who jumps beautifully and there is no horse in this race more deserving of a big win more than this guy, placed in almost every big 2m4f+ race going. According to the ratings he has degressed this year but in fairness these were 3 of the hottest grade 1s in Ireland this season. At his peak he is rated 170 and could be well handicapped here, Mouse Morris had a confidence boosting Irish National with 2 horses placing and has a brilliant jockey in Nina Carberry on board. 5.10 - The Game Changer - There was bags of confidence about him for the County Hurdle but the ground likely got away from him on the final day and he could only manage 9th place. There has been plenty of money in for him again and Gordon Elliot certainly knows how to win big handicap pots. 5.40 - Hollies Pearl - Seen the back of Lifeboat Mona twice this year and receives a handy 4lbs from her today which should have them closely matched. Lifeboat Mona finished 4lengths behind Babylone Des Motte last time out but was giving away 5 lbs that day and needs to carry 6lbs this time and its hard to see her reverse that form. Hollies Pearl has the inform Sean Bowen taking a further 3 lbs off and should be weighted to go very close.
For those who haven't gave any other card a glance due to the National...Neptune winner Windsor Park runs on the flat at 5:45 in Gowran Park. Prohibitive odds but worth a look.
1.30 Parlour Games 2.05 Gods Own 2.50 Cole Harden 4.15 Rocky Creek I fancy all 4 of these pretty strongly tomorrow.
My picks for the national are Godsmejudge and Royale Knight. Been keen on Godsmejudge since the turn of the year. Will stay the trip well and he is a grinder. Good at his fences and should run a good race. Royale Knight looks to have been laid out for this. Another good jumper and sneaks in off bottom weight. Can see him running a huge race. Can't be having First Lieutenant. The media are jumping on the female jockey bandwagon again. He will struggle to lump that weight around to win.
Elsewhere on the card I am very keen on the chances of Parlour Games, God's Own and Zarkandar and will have them in a few multiples
Fully agree with those on Parlour Games and God's Own - should make a tasty double. Cole Harden will carry my money in the 3-miler. Like many on here, my eye has been caught by the good Doctor's horse at the bottom of the weights, Royale Knight. Of course you need luck to win the National but his shrewd trainer has done just about everything humanly possible to give him the best chance here and he looks a knocking bet. At 100/1 this morning I will also be having a small e/w play on old boy Rubi Light. Although he has never tackled anything like this trip, he is a sound jumper (has never failed to complete) and his 8 lengths second to Synchronised in the Lexus on god ground is probably the pick of his form in relation to this race. I will also be hoping that Miss Crick can follow up for the County Set in the bumper.
Night in Milan James confident of place laid back and hopes he gets round safe but has a squeak B King is my choice gets round and is fresh Rocky creek lined up for this with 9 pound in hand ???? not for me Many Clouds my outsider Hope they all get round safe and the jockeys come home safe would love Nina to win stay frosty be lucky
Kid Kalanisi in the bumper at chepstow 7/1 -harry skelton flies off from aintree to ride this later ....
With the SP's of the last two winners of the Grand National (Aurora's Encore@66/1 in 2013, Pineau De Re@25/1 last year), will it be the same trend again in an unfancied horse winning?! I was totally wrong in backing Holywell for the Gold Cup, expect the same outcome for Spring Heeled in the National! Although there are a few fancied horses in the field like Shutthefrontdoor, Rocky Creek and Balthazar King in the field, I wouldn't be surprised the winner is priced@25/1+ again! But if I had to pick one horse, it would be Balthazar King, as connections have wisely sidestepped this season's Cheltenham Festival to have another crack at this (the same applies to Rocky Creek).
Not a huge national fan myself but to throw my penneth into the First Lieutenant discussion- Mouse Morris only last week saddled RULE THE WORLD to 2nd over 3m 5f in the Irish National despite looking like he was gassed after 2m 5f in any race he has been in! This is a massive step down in class, it is perfect ground, he has got a very fair mark on his best form and has targeted this all season. They go a stride slower in the National than any race he has been in and I think he has a rattling good chance IF he takes to the fences, though he has always been a steady jumper.
Barring the obligatory punt in the national (Balthazar King, Alvarado, Soll and Al Co) my only other bet of the day will be Miss Crick in the bumper, not had a chance to look today but last night had odds of around 12/1, too big I thought.
As De Mee - a Nichol's horse 12-1? Got to be done. God's Own at 5-2 on SJ between 11-12pm (sorry) Already been mentioned elsewhere but Henryville outran his odds last time and is a good ew in this at 16-1 The Betfred is a scuffy looking race but going for likely fav Buywise Rocky Creek is as good a certainty as you can ever get in the big one but also Saint Are at 33-1 ew looks good to me War Sound in the 5-10, impressive LTO and rider takes off 7lb - 8-1 available And Hollies Pearl in the lucky last.- the inform Sean Bowen riding for his dad, 15-2 best odds Good luck all
Like TC Im not a massive fan of the National as a betting event but as a spectacle its fantastic! David Starkey has advised the grey horses should stop feeling sorry for themselves on that basis Im on Unioniste!!!
Mouse Morris also trains Alpha Des Obeaux, who was a length down when falling at the last in the Sefton Novices Hurdle yesterday (probably would've finished 2nd).
