I think they have underestimated Miliband (Something I too have probably been guilty of) They had made him out to be an idiot for so long that it just got factored into people's minds. The two debates showed that he was better than Cameron and that has affected things a bit. I think that the 37/31 poll is most likely an outlier but maybe the one showing a narrow Tory lead is too. One thing is for certain they are not polls that point to a Tory government in four weeks time.
Absolutely ****ing horrifying, maybe the UK has been moved to the deep south of America, and we haven't been told about it
I think it's more that our recent crop of politicians have seen how wealthy a few have gotten in America and want to replicate it. Nothing keeps the masses on you're side like nationalism.
It is scary, but as ever the polls are always a bit more violent than the reality - I think many UKIP poll respondents will revert to Labour/Tory in their constituency and the polls have shown UKIP steadily losing ground. They'll still get a large chunk of votes and it could well be higher than the Lib Dems, but I should think it will be around the 10% mark rather than 14%. I would predict them getting 3 seats and possibly as few as 1 if they keep putting their foot in it.
The polls always show an under estimation of Tory support by up to 3% as not everyone will readily admit to supporting them! The most famous example of this being the 1992 General Election when the Pollsters got it horribly wrong, In South Thanet the Polls are showing the Tories are now ahead of Farage and the same in Rochester & Strood. The UKIP bubble has definitely burst!
Ah, the 'Shy Tory Factor'. I wonder why on Earth people would be ashamed of voting Tory... EDIT: Furthermore, don't most polls now factor that into their results, as a result of the 1992 GE that you mentioned?
Ipswich suffers from the same thing, the Shy Ipswich Supporter, it manifests itself most weeks at Portman Road!
Yeah, given that pretty much every poll was close to correct about the Tory and Labour percentages in 2010 either that's the case or the shy Tory poll was an exception in 1992. I think Cruyff's Turn and I were discussing this earlier in the thread or maybe on a previous one that it's actually a "shy government in power supporter" that is more typically the problem with these polls - which is why Labour under Brown did better in 2010 than the polls suggested and the Tories ended up short of a majority.
William Hill have shortened the odds on Miliband being the next PM from 6/4 to 11/10 Ah well a good election to lose. Watch the Miliband/SNP Car Crash unfold and then pick up the pieces in 2020,
Miliband has ruled out joining up with the SNP. That's not to say it wouldn't happen, but I think it is getting progressively unlikelier. I think Labour have finally worked out that going into coalition with the SNP, while getting them power, would be a long-term strategic error as given the Labour support in Scotland it is Labour who have by far the most to lose. Better to campaign in Scotland properly - vote SNP is a vote helping the Tories. I don't think the SNP will end up anywhere near as much as the nearly 50% of the votes in the polls. They will win a lot of the Scottish seats, but I suspect Labour will ultimately retain quite a few. Lib Dems will be wiped out in Scotland though as they won't be forgiven for the last five years in a hurry
