Daily Racing Thread Friday 10th. April 2015

Friday's Meetings

Leicester
Flat 7 Races 1:30-5:00p.m.
Aintree
N/H 7 Races 1:40-5:15p.m.
Fontwell
N/H 7 Races 1:55-5:25p.m.
Wexford
N/H 8 Races 3:55-7:35p.m.
Wolverhampton
A/W 8 Races 5:50-9:20p.m.

Racecards
At The Races
Racing Post
Sporting Life

Good Luck

 

Attivo, your efforts on keeping the DT flowing so seamlessly must be applauded..well done.

 

Tomorrow's lucky 15.
All @ Aintree.
2-15.Vago Collonges.
2-50.Saphir Du Rheu.(Nap)
3-25.Al Ferof.
4-40.Vyta Du Roc.
Good luck to all.

 

Standing Ovation 16/1 Aintree 4:05 - Hasn't won since completing a 4 timer in 2013 but has now slipped back down a bit in the weights to a mark of 127 (from a high of 133), he ran at the festival finishing well beaten behind The Package but hopefully it hasn't left it's mark. Conditions at Aintree are perfect and the return to the saddle of Connor O'Farrell is a huge bonus as he's the only jockey to win aboard Standing Ovation which hopefully is a hint In itself. With a safe round hopefully he can go close off a nice weight.

Vyta Du Roc 7/2 Aintree 4:40 - Daryl Jacob takes over from Barry Geraghty and bar clouting the last hurdle at Cheltenham he would have finished 2nd to Windsor Park that day in the Neptune over 21 furlongs. This horse just looks like an out and out stayer and will fight all the way to the line so the step up to 3 miles will definitely suit, it will take a good one to outbattle him at this trip.

 

I share the praise for attivo, top work my man!

All about the Fever tomorrow. I'll wait till I see what the best morning price is before investing. 10/3 at the minute but I suspect you'll see bigger tomorrow.

In the 4.40 I think Roi de Francs 7/1 could recoup losses from the Martin Pipe where he could never land a blow and the step up in trip should suit. The winner of that has nice formlines that tie in with the Neptune race so for once I think this could be the rarest of things, a Willie Mullins runner offering decent value!

 

Morning all, I was very lazy and put selections up without looking at the form so now i have 2 minutes i have gone through and picked PROPER selections:

Aintree


140- The Saint James


I’ve looked at the makeup of the race and there are very few Grade 3 or above performers in this and if you re watch The Saint James last run @ Cheltenham this horse ran tight to the rail and was never really asked to go after Qualando and stayed on nicely into third by a neck. Now up in trip and Mccoy on board I The Don has managed to find a handicap good thing and I will be following.


210- Vago De Collonges


I had initially picked Glingerburn and I still think he is the likely winner and the fact that his owner is a northern man hence why he stayed away from Chelts and is going for this im sure he will be ready and primed for this BUT with Vago De Collognes being 7/1 I think hes an E/W bet to nothing and he has good form in grade 2’s this season.


240- Rawnaq


This really is wide open and again Saphier is probably the best horse but his chase mark is based on what Nicholls has said about him and what he has done over hurdles so I have plumped with Rawnaq. 2 from 4 over fences and would have finished closer but for a mistake at the last. Im hoping they go a fast pace and Rawnaq will come with a wet sail and sweep past in the final 100yds, remember this one beat Gilgamboa earlier in the season and unexposed at the trip.


325- Cue Card


This horse is 10lbs lower than the mark he was running off 2 yrs ago and winning races and I know it’s a huge jump of faith but Im willing to take it at the odds.


405- Standing Ovation


Can’t help but think this one is a handicap plot by the pipes, he ran well last year and bagged a few wins but since then we haven’t really seen much but he has managed to get in here off 10 stone and theres money around for him with 14/1 still available. Here’s what Pipe has said about his chances:


‘’Standing Ovation has just got in at bang on ten stone, ran well at Cheltenham and we've put blinkers on just to help him. He ran in this race last year but just got ran off his feet a bit, but I think with the blinkers on, with a better preparation, and at the right end of the weights he's not without a chance."


440- Alpha Des Obeaux NAP


I LOVE Minella Rocco as a horse and think that he will turn out to be the best horse in time but at the odds I cant back him with just 2 wins in novice company and I think the one to be with is without doubt is ADO. He has ran well over 2 and 3 miles this season against none other than Douvan and Black Hercules in front. Add to that the Irish form is way better than the English and this becomes NAP material.


515- Belshill


Finished 10th in the Champion Bumoer but I think Ruby might have dropped one there as he got miles back and let once he realised he was never going to catch up he gently stayed on into 10th but I think Ruby might have save him for another day and although Nicholls seems to have a strong hand here they haven’t been tested at this level.

 

I am torn between Cue Card and The Fever tomorrow- back to his best of 2 years Cue Card will be extremely hard to beat but is he anywhere near that and if hes not then the Fever will be very hard to beat indeed!

 

'If Saphir du Rheu's jumping holds up' must be a pretty big IF. He's run in 3 novice chases and has failed to complete in 2 of them! He may well win but at 6/4 he's an absolutely rancid price. As the statistics back up I'd be looking 2/1 for him just to get round lol

 

Ok so tomorrow selections are;

1.40- THEINVAL 11/1- Absolutely bolted up at Kempton last month , although he has gone up 10lbs for that run- he has Jerry McGrath taking off 3lbs of that and still remains very unexposed type

2.15- CARDINAL WATER 15/2- Not the strongest of grade 2's, He is 6lb better off with the Qewy for a six-length beating at Newbury two starts ago and looks to have progressed aswell, coming here fresh - its a horse that seems to be on the up

2.50- AINSI FIDELES 9/1- Has won 7/8 of her fence starts, the best when winning a 4 runner race beating Deputy Dan and Virak- which the former holds solid form after winning very nicely in the weekend, more is required at the sphere but there arnt any proven G1 horses in the field! And she still looks on the up!

 

3.25- DON COSSACK (NAP)- 4/1 - Another change of mind (uh-oh) but is always consistent and is the safest option with more questions about form and class for a lot of the field, better than his result in the Ryanair and will be very hard to beat with the champ on top!

4.05 - BENNYS MIST- 16/1 - Very tough race as it every year- with the fences an unknown for a lot of these! But he chased home Ma Fieulle last year and then was 3rd to Poole master in the Grand Sefton, but he has been out of sorts recently where as my choice is coming here on the back of a career best in February

4.40- MINELLA ROCO (NB)- Changed my mind (uh-oh) gives the impression that he could be a high-class recruit. He hasn't come off the bridle in twice beating minor opposition at Newbury and Kempton and he's already won over 3m between the flags

5.15- BARTERS HILL

 

Dreadful first day for me. Had a hatrick of fallers in a row. 2 seconds and only silvi saved me a little.
Pinning my hopes on SAPHIR DU RHEU and DON COSSACK tomorrow. Good luck all.

 

3.25 Aintree: AL FEROF (NAP)

 

Just about treading water, but onward and upwards tomorrow
1.40 Knights parade
2.15 commissioned
2.40 Carole's destrier
3.25 cue card
4.05 theatre guide
4.40 thistlcrack
5.15 virnon

 

4.05 BLESS THE WINGS 25/1 e/w -Elliot might revive him and if he takes to the fences will be a serious player.

4.40 ORDO AB CHAO 14/1 (NB) Think he has been crying for 3 miles and has a right chance in this.

5.15 JURBY 25/1 Was much more value than 2.75L at Newcastle and was very green. Massive step forward coming and a nice flat pedigree for this.

 

1.40 - Baradari - Ran behind an absolute beast of a horse, a machine, Pegasus at Huntingdon last season!!! hahaha. Think the step up will help and place chance.
Was at Sandown with Stick to see The Saint James run at Sandown when sent off 11/4. Something didn't seem quite right given the ridiculous purchase price and ran like a dog so we smelt a rat.... JP wheelbarrow seems to be emptied so be mad not to be on it at 5s.

2.15 - No bet but if I had to would lay Glingerburn (sorry Boil!!)

2.50 - Place lay Saphir du Rheu - not the best opposition but in my eyes its ridiculous to be backing him at these odds. Would want these odds to get round never mind win.

3.25 - Don Cossack - Cheltenham is CFs course and was gutted he missed it. While CF is fresh think The Don can beat him. At this point I'm assuming Stick doesn't have internet so im going to put one up for him..... Balder Success - he would tip it If he were here so just passing on!!
Call me a nutter but when Kielan (my most underated jockey on the circuit) rides for Case things tend to happen.... So have had a little nibble on Croco Bay at 66-1.

4.05 - Standing Ovation - simply has to be backed - its a not so subtle pipe gamble, along with Ruden Cotter ew. Have done the r/f just in case. Also backed Annacoty at 33-1 ew

4.40 - Got to put up one of Charlies so Our Kaempfer - beat Port Melon over 2m5f. The yard really like this one but probably a bit high off 140. Yard is in awful form (0/23) but ew at 28s will have a v v small ew bet. Roi Des Frances main bet ew.

5,15 - Brain Power / Belshill both ew

 

Had a great day today, with some near misses(VV 2nd and Ned Buntline falling when going well) All Yours brought home the bacon though!

Looks a lot tougher tomorrow.

1.40 - The Saint James - Came 3rd in the Fred Winter when doing his best work at the end, steps up in trip which will suit. The form of the race looks decent with All Yours winning today(rated 1 lb more in the FW) beating several decent yard sticks in Bristol De Mai and Devilment. He was raised 2 lbs for that and receives 7lb age allowance and the cat already looks out the bag as his price has been tumbling since the bookies put him up. 6/1 now.

2.15 - Glingerburn - I have been very impressed with his improvement this season winning all 4 starts most notably when beating Bristol De Mai 3 and a half lengths giving him 9lbs aswell. With BDM franking that form today he looks to have at least 8-10 lbs in hand on the rest of the field. Has been kept fresh for this and loves fast ground.

2.50 - Saphir Du Rheu - Had tickets on him for the RSA this year, it was suggested he would take top order in the 3 mile chase division but has let himself down with 2 novice mistakes in 2 races and was sent hurdling instead. Away from those mistakes he appears to jump very well and has a massive engine on him and its good to see them go back to novice chasing rather than go for the Stayers Hurdle.

3.25 - Cue Card - I dont understand why Champagne Fever is favourite, he looked beaten when falling over this trip against Don Cossack when receiving 2lbs and if i had to choose between the two id easily have the Don. However he looked to have a hard race at Cheltenham when he was hampered and couldnt get to the winner and would be no surprise if that left its mark. Cue Card has a lot to prove but if hes anywhere near his peak he would dismantle this opposition with ease. Saying that, he has looked to struggle against the very best this year but that was at 3miles+ and this trip in my opinion is his best. Best seen when he won the Ryanair in 2013 and then got to within 4 lengths of Sprinter Sacre in this race in 1 of the best performances you will see around here. He has always done his best work on good and good to soft ground and im sure Tizzard has him spot on for this.

4.05 - Rajdhani Express - Hard to be overly confident especially with the mammoth weight he needs to carry over these fences, however Henderson has a great record in this race, 3 times in 9 years including Ma Filleule last year. To top that off noone rides these fences better than Sam Waley Cohen and he has a handy 3 lbs to take off. It was only 5 months ago he was sent off 2nd favourite off 158 in the Old Roan Chase here before unseating and i would reckon that on mark of 152 is well within his reach.

4.40 - Vyta Du Roc - Has been finishing his races very strongly over 2m 5f including the Challow Novices when he went down a neck and that form stayed strong as he would have been challenging front 2 in the neptune but for a shocking mistake at the last. To the horses credit he managed to get going again to finish 4th which was remarkable, the extra 3 furlongs looks up his street. He is closely matched with Blaklion but feel that Vyta will appreciate the better ground more.

5.15 - Bellshill - Giving the trainers riches in the bumper department his sole representative is Bellshill. He was looking slightly outpaced but started making up places at the end at Cheltenham, an extra furlong is sure to suit. He was beaten a length by Vigil(Claimer on board) at Leopardstown and he has proven to be very consistent finishing 5th in the past 2 champion bumpers. There is no obvious horses of the same calibar and 3 of the front 4 in the market are there purely on the trainers, Barters Hill beat Buveur D'Air and has a better pull in the weights and he would be my favourite but happy with the value on Bellshill.

 

I fancy Al Ferof tomorrow, as he seems to win every time after a long lay off. Champagne Fever doesn't have a decent piece of form over fences, whilst Cue Card has seen better days.

I did fancy Don Cossack, but with Holywell letting his form from Aintree last year down today I've changed my mind. Il probably still have a stake saver on him though. As I think it is between the 2