I'm not sure I follow? I don't disbelieve you, but that merely reinforces the point - your prediction doesn't seem to be based on the polls and prevailing facts, despite you claiming so. That you might be right, or were right in the past, is of no consequence when we are considering the basis for your prediction. And bear in mind past performance is no indication of future success. I'm still not clear on why you said "annihilation" and yet predicted 15 seats though?
I predicted the Grand National winner in '97, Lord Gyllene at 14/1 - didn't know how much it would win by though, or even if it was going to win, but win it did.
I agree the Lib Dems shouldn't be looked down on for their role in the Tory lead government. However, I believe if they had either denied a coalition with the Tories in the first place or fought tooth and nail for things like tuition fees they would have had a huge boost in this election and could have potentially been in the running for the main party. Instead the Tories just side lined them, ruined their major support base, the Students, and then blamed it all on the Lib Dems.
I think the crux of this election will be comparing the damage the SNP does to labour in Scotland to that UKIP can inflict on the Cons in the south East and Labour in the midlands and North. I am fascinated by the dynamic of potentially UKIP stripping away votes from the left and the right in their own strongholds possibly resulting in parties struggling to hold what historically have been winnable seats. I don't think that the national polls are that significant as the Libs will probably do OK in the SW and possibly the Scottish Highlands and Islands as they usually do and get blown away elsewhere just by a larger margin than last time. I reckon Norman Lamb has a decent chance of survival as do other good constituency MP's Under our electoral system averages mean nothing - the LibDems have slid alarmingly in the polls but that is a National, not a local picture. It may be the case that they actually benefit in the South from UKIP splitting the Tory vote and Lab voters tactically voting for them as they can be seen to have a real chance whereas pre-UKIP they would be also-rans. For me the nightmare scenario is the choice of a Tory-led administration beholden to UKIP against a Labour led administration beholden to the SNP. Whether UKIP will hold up in a general election has yet to be seen but I can see the SNP grabbing most of Scotland from Labour and if this happens it would take a miracle for them to get enough English seats to run the country as a whole. I think I am right in saying (although I am sure others will correct me very quickly I'm sure if I'm not!) that Labour has never held a majority of English seats so this is why both Wales and Scotland are key to their chances of victory. Personally I'd like to see the LibDems do better than predicted as I think that they have tempered the Tory right in the current administration and done a pretty reasonable job particularly when you consider what a minority partner they are. I also wouldn't shed a tear if the Greens picked up a couple of seats (and if they do we'd probably have one in Norwich) just to give them a platform to outline their ideas to the mainstream. I would be truly mortified were UKIP to end up with a rump of 20-30 seats littered around Kent and Essex and in the Northern towns where race is an issue or if the SNP took over Scotland and started to try to send ever more resource up there at the expense of the English tax payer.
I think it's very dangerous to predict what a future Tory government will be like based on what the coalition has achieved in the past five years. This isn't a Tory government, it is a coalition involving the Lib Dems watering down much of the austerity measures for the masses. If they had been given a free rein in 2010 I strongly believe the little people would have been shafted far more even than they have already. I actually think Nick Clegg has been very brave to put his reputation on the line in order to attempt to hold the Tories back, and find it a travesty the way he is considered these days my the majority. Of all the leaders he is the one I trust the most, absolutely without question.
Yes Norfolkbhoy, you're spot on and if Labour do get decimated in Scotland, they'll struggle to get enough seats to form a government. I'm really worried what the fruitcake Salmond may do at Westminster!!! Scotland already has more spent per head on healthcare than the rest of UK!!!!
Yes she is, but Salmond is hoping to be elected to Westminster and cause havoc!!! ‘Your plans fill me with absolute horror,’ Anna Soubry tells Alex Salmond Please watch - http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p02mjj9d
I think Colk is spot on over tuition fees. The Conservatives can't get shafted for making the change as (I believe) it was on the table prior to the election. Otherwise the lib dems couldn't have used it as a cornerstone of their manifesto. Students were swayed considerably into voting Lib Dems because of it, which I remember well as I was a student at the time. When a considerable amount of your support comes from a promise on tuition fees, then that should be a line in the sand when it comes to negotiating the formation of a coalition. Instead it comes across that they were so desperate for a share of power that they'd abandon a core election promise just to get some. For sure they managed to get other concessions from the Conservatives, and have done a good job of diluting their influence, but tuition fees were a big thing that had an obvious, direct impact on the lives of both students and parents. That's why it gets remembered. I don't think you'll find many disillusioned Lib Dem student voters switching to the conservatives, as despite being more open about it they wanted the tuition hike. But I'd expect Labour to gain student support considerably.
Cameron/Miliband...Well,well,well who would have thought it...and the winner is! Quite clearly Miliband won according to all the commentators,including Nigel Farage. You can see why Dave won't go head to head with him
Didn't think Miliband could have done any better than he did, thought he put in an excellent performance (for what it's worth) despite some very hostile and, dare I say it, amateurish grilling from Paxman. I though he was awful and came across as even more of a bully than he usually does. In a fan of Paxo generally, but I thought he was poor last night, interrupting Ed's answers in an almost childish fashion. I guess he was looking to give them as tough a time as possible, and for me Miliband came through with flying colours - for what it's worth, as I said earlier. Cameron looked nervous and just chucked out the typical rhetoric you'd expect from him. Didn't convince me at all, and although I wasn't expecting him to I was expecting a better performance at least. Can't believe the polls are saying Dave came out on top, I didn't think Miliband put a foot wrong personally. Good on him
I was a bit disappointed I missed this. Not at all surprised that Miliband did much better expected. I'm a bit confused though - CT says all the commentators gave Miliband the win, whereas Munky says all the polls said Cameron? Are commentators really that out of touch with the general population?
I was out last night, so didn't see it, but I have recorded it. I'm sure you could get it on iplayer Rob. As for the LibDems, I think they will lose seats, but still retain 20+ overall. In their strongholds like the SW where I live, they will probably hold on to most of their seats and possibly even gain some back that they lost to the Tories last time, due to the UKIP drain on Tory votes. I think this is a very unpredictable election overall, and fascinating for that reason. I think UKIP and SNP will make gains, but nothing like those being suggested, but still could be players in the balance of power, though not as a coalition, but by supporting on a vote by vote basis. This may also be true for the LibDems.
That was a Guardian poll, Munky, but most polls put it between 4% and level, which is a pretty good start for Miliband against an incumbant PM. The commentators do seem to have been calling it in favour of Miliband or pretty even.
I agree with you 100% on this point TMC and feel that their contribution to the stability of the government has been totally overlooked. Without it the country would have been unable to attract the inward investment that has helped the recovery and the fact that the country could be thrown into a snap election at any time would have been very damaging to our overall credibility. I did allude to this in an earlier post. In terms of seats, their miserable poll rating is somewhat irrelevant as their seats are mainly personal ones and sand as islands in surrounding seas of either red or blue and this will help them to a degree. It would be a great shame for Danny Alexander if he was to go down as he has acted impecably in a very difficult roll.
I watched it and thought it was all a bit of a let down, perhaps unsurprisingly as Cameron effectively set the format up for himself that way. It actually started quite brightly with Paxman tearing into Cameron and the PM looking very sheepish and under pressure. He didn't cope well under the heavy scrutiny but the Paxman questions only lasted about ten minutes and then we got a 25 minute love-fest between Burley and Cameron while he answered some of the least inspiring and wet comments imaginable. Again, playing right into Cameron's hands as he just brushed all the questions off with non-answers very easily without any comebacks. I think his condescending response to one of the questioners that "you people are better off in work" should have been stamped on damn quick yet it was left untouched. I must admit I expected Miliband to get crushed by Paxman but to be fair I thought he did quite well and certainly 'tried' to answer the audience questions with some vigour and passion, unlike Cameron. At least he comes out as a human, albeit a slightly odd one. Cameron is just horrible, odious and smug. What did I learn from last night? Well, nothing really. But it did confirm that although I lean towards Labour, I just cannot get on board with Miliband - he is too confused and I do not believe he is ever going to be a 'leader' and I would struggle to vote for him, while it also reconfirmed that Cameron is still a dirty little twat who needs to be put in a ring with Mike Tyson and given the beating of a lifetime. No idea who I will vote for. I can't stand any of them to be honest.
Sorry Colk but I think you are totally wrong here. The country would never had wanted to have a re-run in 2010 because a minor party threw their toys out and would have penalised them immediately later that year. At the end of the day, the country is largely Labour or Tory and the middle ground will flux as either major party is out of favour favouring slight upswings to the LibDems in those areas. Going back to your main point, if a party with 50n odd seats tried to 'wag' the nation they would have been damaged irrevacably as being irresponsible. It was the maths that did for them and they will recover in years to come. I think that the SNP may be under fire if they try to overplay their hand should the mathematics give them an opportuntiy this time around and if that was so, I would not expect them to behave responsibly as Salmond has already implied..
Labour-ites thought Ed 'won'. Tories thought Dave 'won'. UKIPpers thought Dave 'won'. Greens thought 'Ed 'won' LibDems were split. Last night has changed nothing.
