1.30 Nichols Canyon 2.05 The Young Master 2.40 Lac Fontana 3.20 Sprinter Sacre 4.00 Nuage D'Ainay 4.40 Arabian Revolution 5.15 Moon Racer Looking forward to Sire De Grugy vs Sprinter Scare in the Queen Mother Champion Chase. The last two winners going toe-to-toe. Sprinter Sacre should come on for his last run behind Dodging Bullets and will appreciate the better ground. Sire De Grugy was impressive at Chepstow last time giving weight all round. I think Sprinter Sacre will just edge it if anywhere near back to his best form. Can't have Dodging Bullets at Cheltenham or going left-handed. Lac Fontana was only 8l behind Faugheen in November and deserves another chance. He won the County Hurdle last year and proved his ability last spring winning Grade 1 events at Aintree and Punchestown.
1.30 Cheltenham Windsor Park 5/1 Skybet are running are running a great promotion of money back if you come 2nd or 3rd in the Neptune which looks well worth taking up and although he's a bit shorter in the betting than I expected and although his form is probably the weakest of those towards the front of the market I think he's been campaigned to peak for this by Dermot Weld and I think he'll really appreciate the stiff 2m5f trip, quick ground and tempo of the race. Having shown progressive form in bumpers before winning his 4th start in that sphere, Windsor Park was then switched to the flat to twice win convincingly in the Autumn before embarking upon his novice hurdling career. Having run out a decent winner on his hurdling debut over 2m4f at Leopardstown's Christmas meeting, Windsor Park was stepped into Grade 2 Company on his next start towards the end of January where I thought he ran a bit flat in behind another of the market leaders that day in Outlander but it wasn't an awful effort and I thought he put in a really eye catching display on his last start. In the Grade 1 Deloitte Novice Hurdle at Leopardstown, Windsor Park was held up towards the rear of the field in the 2m2f contest and he did make a few novicey errors in the contest. However, he did stay on eye catchingly into 2nd in a race that wasn't run to suit as he failed to reel in Nichols Canyon - who is currently vying for favouritism. Although he's got a bit of ground to make up with him on that run, I'm very confident he can turn the tables around as that rival got an uncontested lead and could dictate at his own pace which wouldn't have suited this 6 year old and I think Windsor Park will relish the quicker tempo of this contest. Moreover, I definitely think he'll improve for the step up in trip whilst I feel Windsor Park has been brought along patiently by Weld. There are dangers aplenty in this 10 runner contest but if Davy Russell can get him into a nice rhythm early on I'm confident he can come out on top in this. 2.05 Cheltenham The Young Master 5/1 Favourite Don Poli is a very formidable adversary here and I certainly wouldn't put anybody off backing him as I think he'll be hard to beat but I've been really impressed with the progressive handicap form The Young Master has shown and I think he's got a great chance of landing this. Representing the same Mulholland/Geraghty combination that were successful with The Druids Nephew Yesterday, The Young Master has been a revelation since sent chasing this year and has run out an impressive winner on all 4 of his starts over the fences. Having sauntered to victory on his chasing debut, The Young Master ran out a good winner of an Amateur Riders Handicap over this C+D off a mark of 121 back in October before absolutely demolishing what looked a really competitive 18 runner handicap at Wincanton off a 9lb higher mark back in November. He has since been stripped of that win (quite ridiculously) as he wasn't eligible to run in the race and although connections were stripped of all their prize money the handicapper reacted by putting him up a massive 14lb to a mark off 144. That didn't stop him, however, as dispatched of a very decent crop of seasoned and battle hardened handicappers in fine style at Ascot in December despite jumping left at times and that race has a strong look about it with the runner up Houblon Des Obeaux, who had filled the same spot in the ultra competitive Hennessey prior to this, chasing home officially (on ratings) the best staying Novice of the last 15 years in Coneygree. Additionally, the 3rd home Le Reve ran out an impressive winner off the same mark on his next start before chasing home leading Grand National hope Rocky Creek off a 6lb higher mark and it was a really impressive performance by a novice having just his 4th run over the larger obstacles. Neil Mulholland has saved him since then and I've every confidence that he'll have him spot on for this. In addition to Don Poli, David Pipe's Kings Palace is towards the front of the market but I just don't like the horse that much (for all he's been impressive in small field Novice Chases thus far) whilst I feel the rest of the opposition lack the class of both The Young Master and Don Poli. With the excellent Barry Geraghty (on board for his last two wins) up top and Neil Mulholland clearly in excellent form having landed his first Cheltenham Festival winner yesterday I'm confident of a massive run from this unexposed and improving 6 year old and for all it will take a very big performance to beat Don Poli I'm confident that The Young Master can deliver and land the RSA Chase. 2.40 Cheltenham Baradari 18/1 This 26 runner minefield is always a tricky puzzle to solve but I'm very, very sweet on the chances of Venetia Williams' 5 year old Baradari who I think has been absolutely crying out for a step up in trip and I think it'll be the making of him. A recruit from the flat in France, Baradari began his career for the Williams team when sent Juvenile hurdling in late 2013 and after a win and solid placed form I thought he ran an absolute cracker in last years Fred Winter to finish a 5L beaten 5th off a mark of 134 as he motored up the hill that day and shaped as if he was in need of further. He rounded off last year with a fall and a tame effort but returned this year with a fine 3rd behind a pair of well handicapped Nicky Henderson rivals off a mark of 134 at Sandown in November before putting in a below par effort in the Greatwood Hurdle just 15 days later that I'm just putting a line through as he clearly wasn't himself. Given a couple of months to recover, Baradari was finally stepped up in trip to an extended 19f at Ascot in January and he gained a richly deserved 2nd success over hurdles when landing the Grade 2 handicap hurdle in soft ground as he got up in the dying strides to win by a neck as he found loads for pressure. He really, really appreciated the step up in trip and needed every yard of it to score and I firmly believe that he'll absolutely relish the extra 1.5f and stiff uphill finish he'll encounter today and I absolutely think it'll be the making of him. The form of that race looks good with the 4th home Garde La Victoire winning a Listed Hurdle on his next start and the 5th Rayvin Black ran a blinder to finish 2nd the Imperial Cup on Saturday. I think a 6lb rise for that performance to a mark of 140 is very fair and still leaves Baradari on a very workable mark and he's got a lovely racing weight of 10-8. I'd be here all night talking about the plethora of dangers that exist in this contest and I might end up looking mental for being so confident about a horses chances in a race of this nature but I just cannot see how Baradari won't run an absolute monster. He's run well at the Festival before, is an improving sort and I firmly believe that the step up in trip will be the making of him and he's a tremendous each way bet at 18/1 in my eyes with 5 places paid. I expect regular jockey Aidan Coleman to settle Baradari towards the back of the pack before coming with a late rattle down the home stretch and hopefully the pair can come home in front and give Venetia Williams a second victory in this contest 10 years on from her first.
3.20 Cheltenham Sire De Grugy 7/2 This race revolves around whether the Sprinter Sacre now is the same horse as the Sprinter Sacre of old and, for all I hope I am proven wrong, I firmly believe that that horse is unfortunately not here anymore. People can argue that he travelled well on the back of a long absence on his reappearance and connections can say that they're very happy with him but I was completely underwhelmed by that performance. There is absolutely no question in my mind that Nicky Henderson would have had his star fit enough to do himself justice on the back of such a long absence but he was running on empty in my eyes when Geraghty went to push the button. Additionally, he had to be rousted in to a number of his fences as opposed to attacking them like he used to and was found to have bled after the race and, for all the romantic in me would love to see what is arguably the greatest 2 mile chaser ever seen win this, I just can't see it happening. If you had told me 3 weeks ago that I'd strongly fancy defending champion Sire De Grugy to win this again I would have thought you were mad as I was very unimpressed with him on his reappearance from injury when he was definitely beaten before unseating but I was incredibly impressed with his performance 18 days ago when connections made a very brave call to run him in a handicap giving bucket loads of weight away to his rivals and although there's a worry that race was very recent I don't think he had much of a race and he looked right back to his best for me and the outstanding 2 miler last season looks by far the most likely winner to me. Dodging Bullets has won all the big races that Sire De Grugy won last year and is a huge player if he can maintain his form but he's never won beyond February in his career to date and his form always seems to peter off at the tail end of the season. I just couldn't have Champagne Fever at any price as he couldn't win a poor Arkle last year and looking at the rest of the field I just can't see any of them being good enough to win the premier 2 mile chase. If his excursions 18 days ago haven't taken too much out of him, I think Sire De Grugy will run out a convincing winner of this and for all I'd absolutely love for Sprinter Sacre to prove me wrong I just can't see it happening. 4.00 Cheltenham Sire Collonges 15/2 Not even going to attempt to say I've much of a clue when it comes to the Cross Country Chase and any play I'll be having in this will be fairly small but Sire Collonges looks to have solid credentials in this sphere and I'd be hopeful of a big run. A C+D winner back in Decemeber 2013, he ran a fine race when 3rd to last years winner and Grand National 2nd Balthazar King on his last start in November and he actually finished a place in front of today's market leader Any Currency and now meets that rival on 7lb better terms so on that logic he looks overpriced. He represents the powerful Nicholls/Twiston-Davies combination and for all I'm not in the least bit confident as I can't conclusively work out the form he looks a decent each way bet at 15/2. 4.40 Cheltenham Hostile Fire 9/1 Gordon Elliott had the winner of this in 2013 with Flaxen Flare and would have probably had the winner last year as well had Clarcam not fallen and I think he's done a terrific job to get Hostile Fire here with a lovely rating of just 131 and I just don't see how he can't not be better than that mark. Formerly trained by Ed De Giles on the flat where he reached a peak rating of 81, Hostile Fire joined the Elliott stable this winter and he ran out a fine 2nd on his hurdling debut when sent of a 25/1 chance at Leopardstown's Christmas meeting. He filled that same position when comfortably held on his 2nd start over hurdles but ran out a fine winner on his final start when he seemed to appreciate the application of a first time tongue tie as he scored by 3L at Fairyhouse at the end of January. Racing quite keenly throughout, (a feature of his 3 starts over hurdles) Hostile Fire travelled powerfully throughout the race and scored pretty convincingly from Zafayan who has since gone on to finish 2nd to a Willie Mullins newcomer (3rd in the race that day has since bolted up). For all that probably wasn't the best contest, Hostile Fire did it impressively enough and I'm sure there will be lots of improvement in him. One massive advantage today that I think Hostile Fire will have is the return to a better surface (all 3 hurdle outings on soft/heavy going) as his best flat form came on good ground and I think that will certainly be very beneficial to this gelding. Additionally, the frantic pace that this contest will be run at will hopefully help him settle and Elliott will have him prepared very well for this and knows what it takes to win the race. Dangers aplenty exist and something else in the field might end up being better handicapped than Hostile Fire but at 9/1 and with 4 places on offer I think he looks a terrific each way bet. 5.15 Cheltenham Moon Racer 9/1 Willie Mullins saddles 7 in this which shows you how open this contest is and, for all I'm not very confident, I've been very impressed by the two performances Moon Racer has put up when winning both starts to date and for all David Pipe's record in this is very poor he's the one that has my money. After springing a huge shock when providing 84 year old trainer Michael Ronayne his first winner on debut at Fairyhouse back in April last year (beat some good horses), Moon Racer was sold for £225,000 at the sales and was sent to the David Pipe yard where he proved that run was no fluke as he ran out an emphatic scorer of his 2nd start in a Cheltenham bumper back in October and those two runs are probably the 2 most visually impressive performances I've seen in this field. He's been saved for this and although this is a completely different ball game I think he'll certainly hold his own in this company. I don't think anyone could be overly confident in a field of this nature, I'm hopeful for a good run and I wouldn't put anyone off having a few quid each way.
A cursory look at the racecards and previous runs has thrown up a little RFC, the horse in question is Beltor and the runners up in his wins... Arabian Revolution and All Yours. As well as thinking that Beltor has an outstanding chance later in the week I think these two will fight out the finish today in the Fred Winter. Not exactly longshots but still a nice dividend if it comes off. That is my NAP suggestion today. Two more bets for the day Goodwood Mirage which has come in for some support overnight for AP and Jonjo. The other horse that carries my cash today is Wait for Me in the bumper Good luck everyone.
For the second day in a row, nothing is really screaming "back me". However, it being Cheltenham in March, my head is unfortunately yelling "lump on something ffs". This is a dangerous state of affairs indeed. To placate the voice in my head, I've convinced myself that the misguided (imo) decision by Coneygree's connections to go for the wrong race leaves the RSA open for Don Poli, so he's my nap despite my conviction that he is no value at 2/1. "Wtf, it's Cheltenham, get stuck in" says the voice in my head. That and a L15 comprising; Activial Dodging Bullets Duke of Lucca Zarib
To sum up my bets for today: Neptune - Nicholls Canyon 4/1. Reproduction of the run LTO will be good enough. Beast of Burden - great jockey on board and interesting that the partnership rush him to the Neptune when he only started out 4 months ago. Could be anything and 14/1 is too big. A great each way bet in a weak Neptune where all bar the fav have big question marks about them. RSA - Don Poli - the only reason I wouldn't back him is if Coneygree was running because they are both 160+ horses and it would be a duel. In Coneygree's absence I can't see Don Poli losing and think he's banker material. He'll handle the ground fine and will love the track. I can't believe he's not going to be able to beat The Young Master (decent handicapper) and Kings Palace (small field bully). Proper bet for me. QMCC - Need to go each way because of the question marks about everything in the field. The ground should be dry - perfect jumping Spring ground. The one horse i always back at Cheltenham runs in this field. He's a horrible price but 5/1 is an each way proposition for me. Champagne Fever will love the ground more than everything else. He'll get some great leaps off it. Ruby can ride him from the front if he wants or settle him in. He could run an absolute blinder and finish 5th but at the same time he could pull clear up the hill in the style of a great Cheltenham horse. Brilliant race to my eye and i want to back a horse who's almost guaranteed to get round and produce his best. SS and SDG could both blow up. Mr Mole could lose it before they even jump. Dodging Bullets has historically proven he doesn't act round Cheltenham. Of the front 5 in the betting, Champagne is the only horse who looks bomb proof to get round. If the rest of them do under perform, Somersby could be a big each way price at 40/1. Cross County - Sire Collonges 7/1 looks to have a great chance if he gets round and he's one of my ante post bets this week. Fred Winter - Hostile Fire 9/1 - another ante post punt for me. He's got a lovely racing weight. Should love this ground and is from a stable that have been targeting this race as ROTO pointed out earlier in the day. There's been a lot of chat about this horse and that's what prompted my bet. Bumper - I, like everyone else of here, have 40/1 about Bellshill. If i have the day I hope for i'll probably top up with a bet on General Principle. I've heard Bordini is killing everything on the gallops but he's too short for me at 7/1.
Coral Cup I am taking a chance on MIJHAAR @ 20s, very interesting on the form of his good third in a useful Aintree handicap in December & should prefer today's faster ground. Richard Johnson booked and this race really is a graveyard for favourites!!
1.30 Neptune Novice Hurdle: SNOW FALCON 33/1 e.w Without wanting to offend or disrespect connections of horses in this field, this looks a really weak Neptune to me compared to previous years. Nothing stands out as a potential Champion Hurdle 2016 horse based on what I have seen of them so far so I'm looking for an unexposed, young horse to come and surprise them all and I think I may have that with Snow Falcon from the Noel Meade team. Meade isn't usually one to tilt at windmills and I was a little surprised to see this one in the lineup. However, look beneath the surface and their are causes for optimism. Firstly- he is a 5 year old and is open to any amount of improvement. I also like to see horses sired by Presenting tried on good ground rather than the tacky stuff they get in Ireland. The form on paper looks short of what is required, however he started 6/4 fav to Triumph over the decent IDENTITY THIEF at Leopardstown in a December maiden and finished a three-quarter length 2nd. The front two pulled really well clear in the final half furlong and to me I think stamina will be this horses forte. He really knuckled down and stuck at it that day and it will stand him in good stead here. Identity Thief disappointed in the Grade 1 Deloitte but he was pulled up so I'm certain something wasn't right that day. The form of the others looks a bit of a muddle. Ordo Ab Chao won a slow motion finish here when seeing off Value At Risk (I know many of you like that one), Parlour Games and Vyta Du Roc are both closely matched and I just don't like Nichols Canyon and think he had the run of the race and some overrated opposition in his Grade 1 win. It just strikes me as a race where an improver might spring a surprise and given that Sky are giving money back if your horse finishes 2nd or 3rd in this, I'll take a slice of 33/1 and watch with great interest.
The Darts today are for 2.40 Goodwood Mirage 3.20 Sprinter Sacre 4.00 Sire Collonges 4.40 Unanimate 5.15 Moon Racer Thanks to Drever for yesterday as I had Gods Own without the fav in a couple of combo bets that made a good start to the festival
I hope nobody got too badly burned when the final wheel fell off the Mullins bandwagon. Ironic that the one with the best form credentials rescued the bookies. Punters who made money should probably take it and run as it will not be that easy for the rest of the week; although it is not possible to legislate against stupidity. With the lousy weather forecast, the going should be much more like the conditions that prevail in the winter months for the rest of the meeting – assuming the rain does not bypass Cheltenham. The opener was won by some donkey called Faugheen last year. No idea what happened to him. John Ferguson’s Parlour Games looks to have been laid out for this and can give Tony McCoy his first victory of the meeting. In the RSA, despite reservations about his dodgy jumping last time, the nod goes to David Pipe’s Kings Palace; as I am not convinced that the Skybet Chase winner If In Doubt is good enough. The Champion Chase appears to pose a lot of questions. Is Sprinter Sacre still the wonder horse and just needed the race behind Dodging Bullets? Sire De Grugy needs to repeat last year’s performance after winning a four-runner handicap that tells us little after his Game Spirit failure. I think the Tingle Creek winner might have his critics Dodging Bullets. Will Frankie Dettori be there doing a jig?
1:30 - Windsor Park 5/1 & Orbo Ab Chao 12/1 2:05 - Don Poli 5/2 2:40 - Zabana 28/1 & Taglietelle 14/1 3:20 - Sprinter Sacre 7/2 4:00 - Chicago Grey 10/1 4:40 - Zarib 11/1 & The Wallace Line 50/1 5:15 - General Principle 11/1 Placepot on, ew lucky 63 on 6 of them and ew patent on 3 of them. Reverse forecast on with races where two selections. Might also do singles, doubles, trebles but will wait till after first race has been run. Only one i've got single on is The Wallace Line at the moment
I'm on him at 33/1 put on just now! He is 33/1 with most places and have been all morning ? Who gave u 20's I'd complain
Have backed Nichols Canyon in a single and doubled up with sprinter (probably heart over head) Ew L15 Kings palace Aux Ptits Soins Sire Collognes Genreal Principle
If Sprinter Sacre returned to the form he showed in the 2012-03 season (except his final run that season), I'd be confident he'd win today. But it's worrying he had a small bleed after his run at Ascot, and although Nicky Henderson has been positive of late and believes this ground will suit better, how much of his ability he maintains is debatable. I hope either him or Sire De Grugy win, undoubtedly the best two mile chasers of the previous two seasons.
Apache Jack at 33s ew in the RSA. I think this is an open race and will take an ew poke on the Sandra Hughes inmate. Was a decent 3rd in last years Albert Bartlett and most of his best form is on better ground. Also have to respect the lovely Rebecca's entry in the Neptune, Beast of Burden. She doesn't enter them at the festival for a nice day out, though I note that this particular owner is yet to enter the winners enclosure in a good few attempts. Baradari for Williams/Coleman and Souriyan for Snowden/Nolan is where my pin has landed in the Coral and Fred Winter lottteries. Good luck all
Corals - Using up my 3 x £200 free bets on the Coral Cup as they are paying 6 places - Best price guaranteed so not too bothered as its their money I am using
