"...drifting out to 8/11, which is a decent price for a horse as good as him..." 8/11 for a Grade 1 novice chase where horses starting at under 3/1 have won only 3 times in the last 23 years and a race where just one front runner has won since 1980 - for a horse having first sight of this particular course on a track that doesn't particularly reward over-exuberance?! 8/11 is a decent price? People who have him antepost 4/1 or 5/1 can be rubbing their hands - I would love to be on at that price, but 8/11? How is that value? I'm with you on this one Oddy and wouldn't at all be surprised
Just because a horse is odds on it doesn't mean it can't be value. This is a horse who won the hottest 2 mile novice race in Ireland by 15 lengths. Clarcam a very good horse (a G1 winner by 17 lengths) was well beaten that day by this beast of a horse. Sprinter Sacre won this race at 8/11, and despite being on ante post at 7/1 I had another bet on him on the day as I rated his chances so highly. So I'm not afraid to lump on a horse in an Arkle at a short price as it's payed dividends for me in the past. You may like to back horses at bigger odds but I prefer to bet the horse I thinks going to win the race
And they are correct Ron! I too have fallen for the mugs bet - Faugheen, Douvan, UDC, Annie and Don Poli in 4's and a 5 although to be fair, at these prices it isn't too much of a mugs I also have a few bob on Pendra (sorry Stick) at 16's and Drever's ew on God's Own. I may do some more ew's once we kick off!
Cheers stick, he looks potentially well handicapped also but happy with the Pendra Confidence singles and doubles with Vibrato!
Making my first trip to the Festival tomorrow, I'm very excited I hope we see some special performances and I think we'll see two- Arkle and Champion look hack up jobs for the Mullins pair. Douvan looks the weakest in the 'mug' acca, but I wouldn't write of Mullins outsiders in this Alvisio Ville or Tell us More. Good luck, especially if your also on the Mullins horses- let's hope the bookies take a caning
Lami Serge - form in the book, plenty of experience and will improve for better ground UDS - boring but so what... could be a superstar in the making. If you're that worried take 4/9 faller insurance and double the bet! QMCC winner 2016, 5s for that will look big this time tomorrow! Pendra - no surprise here, think stick may have let the cat out of the bag some time ago! If this thing wins you will see my running up the hill and failing to get it. Expecting a huge huge run. Looks like a freak of a horse up close. Also Indian Castle ew. Very well handicapped and yard hitting some form 20s looks big Faugheen - do well to get him off the bridle. Have a feeling the fly will run a big race. Place lay TNO. Annie Power - So much in hand and they seem very sweet on her. Backing Glens Melody ew at 6s seems like a sensible back up. Looking forward to seeing how Bitofapuzzle runs. Broadway Buffalo - think the course will suit and will come from way back. Probably get a bigger price in running. Perfect Gentlemen ew Keltus - Nichols is very sweet on his chances. Has been held back to protect his mark and really can't see him out of the frame. Killala Quay has the best form in the book behind faugheen and the better ground will help a lot. Jumping would be my big worry but they will have schooled him like mad. With a good round he will go close. He also gets to look at the best horse in the yard diagonally opposite him from his box all day!!!!
Dunno if it is of interest but WH are refunding all losing bets as a free bet in the Supreme. Max £25 - Douvan 2-1 currently. All customers, not just new ones
I've found a NRNB bet on Faugheen and More of That which I put on in November. 3/1 Faugheen without even realising it. I feel like a winner already. That's 2 in the Champion. Arctic Fire 20/1 each way and Faugheen 3/1
Good Day chaps, been some time since I posted...however I do look in now and again. Its good to see so many old faces. Is this the site the old 606 guys are using, thenkfully there seems to be no Arkle Supreme... Thought I would share my selections for day one in order that you can score them out in your racing post... 1:30 - Qewy (potential big improver, I think this could be Fergusons year at Cheltenhem) 2:05 - Three Kingdoms 2:40 - According To Trev 3:20 - HURRICANE FLY 14/1 (my only ante-post bet) 4:00 - L'Unique (different horse on this track and at this time of the year, fair bit to find but you never know) 4:40 - Perfect Gentleman, pinsticking at its best... 5:15 - Thomas Crapper (NAP), think the horse could be well in here and likes the course. Well at the best to you all, I hope its a profitable day all round.
Welcome Brizy - indeed many on here were also on BBC 606 - and as you rightly point out AS isn't one of them! Good luck with your selections
Evening all, First post in a while and couldn't think of a better time to. Been watching though. For what's it's worth my fancies for tomorrow: 1:30 L'Ami Serge win - Best form and quickened well on bad ground last time. Feel will have too much pace for Douvan. Also Seedling each way. 2:05 No bet race for me. Un De Sceaux will probably win but at 8/11 a no bet. The one a at bigger price each way I like is Gods Own. Good early season form and hoping finds it again. 2:40 Ned Stark 8/1 - Laid out for this, unexposed and still improving. Also following Stick and doing Pendra. 3:20 Faugheen 11/10. NAP. Biggest bet of day one. No explanation needed! The New One for the forecast. 4:00 Glens Melody 11/2. (Each way) Annie coming back from injury and if she is to beaten this is the one for me. Wishing everyone good luck.
Most of my reasoning is on the Cheltenham preview thread but this is my selections. 1.30 - Seedling - Using Paddy Powers special and also Sky Bets money back special. Fear L'Ami Serge most. 2.05 - Vibrato Valtat & Three Kingdoms - Using Paddy Power special on this also. 2.40 - Pendra & Barrakilla - Pendra as per previous posts. Barrakilla ran in the Cheltenham race Niceonefrankie won and that has already thrown up plenty of winners(Splash of Ginge being the most notable) and the previous race behind Sound Investment is also top form. 3.20 - The New One 4.00 - L'Unique & Mischevious Milly - Very strong on L'Unique placing at minimum and also placed single without the favourite (NAP) 8/1 cracking price. 4.40 - Broadway Buffalo - Eye catching that he was sent off favourite for Grand National trial last time out, fell halfway so hard to analyse the form. Should stay this trip and ran a fine race here last year in the Pertemps, stayong on to finish 8th but only 6 lengths behind winner at 3 miles. 5.15 - Knock House - Form of his last race was very strong with Generous Ransom going on to win next time out and he is now 5 lbs better off with that horse having finishing 2 and a half furlongs ahead. Has shown a liking for better ground and the extra furlong is sure to suit.
Not 100% taken with the Willie Mullins pair in the opening two races. Un De Sceaux may walk it but is far too short for me considering he hasn't been much in Ireland. Neither Clarcam or Gilgamboa had been within 30 seconds of standard in their previous chases. Un De Sceaux's jumping has also looked suspect at times and I'm not convinced Cheltenham will suit. Vibrato Valtat has decent form while Court Minstrel and God's Own could run better on the better ground. Douvan has run well in two starts in Ireland but I don't think that form is that much better than the form from Britain. L'ami Serge and Seedling look the alternatives.
1.30 Cheltenham Douvan 2/1 Cheltenham is a 27 race marathon so I'd suggest not blowing your load on the first day and Tuesday definitely won't be the day with my most confident selections of the week. In what looks an incredibly weak renewal of the Supreme on paper, for those of you wishing to take up Paddy Power's offer of money back as a free bet on all losers for bets up to €50 if Douvan wins then I wouldn't put anyone off Shaneshill 10/1. Although Douvan is probably priced up a lot on hype he is certainly the most likely winner in my eyes and represents the Mullins/Ricci/Walsh combination that have landed this race for the past 2 years. The French import Douvan has been incredibly impressive on his two Irish starts to date and with Willie Mullins (uncharacteristically) bigging up this Novice as one of the best he's had then it's absolutely no surprise that he finds himself at the head of the market in the Cheltenham curtain raiser. This 5 year old made a scintillating start to his Irish career when sauntering to an effortless 12L victory at Gowran Park last November when beating subsequent Grade 1 winner Sizing John who also runs in this (that Grade 1 victory probably a bit iffy with the 2 Willie Mullins representatives departing early) and, from a form perspective, this was probably the more impressive of Douvan's 2 runs in Ireland to date. Stepped up to Grade 2 company at Punchestown in January, Douvan again dismissed his rivals with consummate ease to win on the bridle and it's clear that he's a seriously talented horse with a serious engine. It's easy enough to cramp that performance given that he beat a lot of stayers (which is completely true) but visually he couldn't have been any more impressive and ultimately you can only beat what's put in front of you. Of the others, Nicky Henderson's L'Ami Serge is definitely the biggest threat from a form perspective having won all 3 British starts impressively in testing conditions and certainly deserves to be in the top 2 in the betting. He's definitely a danger to Douvan but I just think the Mullins horse is that little bit better than him. Looking through the rest of the field, apart from last years Cheltenham bumper runner up and Douvan's stablemate Shaneshill I just don't think anything else in the race has the form needed to win the Supreme Novice and it looks a poor renewal. For all I wouldn't be having the house on him, 2/1 about Douvan is a just backable price for me and hopefully the Mullins/Walsh combination can get the day off to a flyer on what could be a red letter day for the yard with 4 strong favourites on the day. 2.05 Cheltenham Smashing 9/1 without UDS I think virtually everyone would agree that if Un De Sceaux jumps around and doesn't lose his mind in the preliminaries then he could turn this race into a procession but given his helter-skelter and perhaps even deranged style of just going as fast as possible from the front I just couldn't be a player at odds on. As I'm not a backer of UDS and am fairly certain he'll win, I definitely think the play in this contest is to back Henry De Bromhead's Smashing without the favourite each way at 9/1. Having shown some good form for Willie Mullins over hurdles last year and having run a blinder when 4th in last years Coral Cup giving him good festival form in the book, owners Ann and Alan Potts moved Smashing to the Henry De Bromhead yard for the start of his chasing career and I think he's taken very well to the discipline to date. Having finished 3rd behind two leading RSA hopes in Don Poli and Wounded Warrior on his chasing debut, Smashing came up against Un De Sceaux on his 2nd start and although absolutely no match for him that day I was actually impressed with the resolution he showed in trying to close the gap behind the runaway train who could well be end up being the most visually impressive winner this week. On the back of that fine effort, Smashing absolutely trounced a decent enough horse in Upsie by a country mile on his final start to win his first start over fences and I think he's still an improving animal at just 6 years old. With UDS in the field, this race will surely be run at a break neck speed given that UDS will run as if being chased by the hounds of hell and it definitely seems advantageous to me that Smashing can stay further than 2 miles as this could be a real test for those in behind. With hurdling form at the Festival to boot, I think the 9/1 available for Smashing without UDS looks a great each way bet and is certainly what I'll be doing in this contest. 2.40 Cheltenham The Druids Nephew 9/1 Off a mark of 146, there's no doubt in my mind that The Druids Nephew is well enough handicapped to win this race but he's got to improve his jumping to do so. Formerly with Andy Turnell, The Druids Nephew joined the excellent Neil Mulholland stable at the start of this season and he made the perfect start for his new yard when running out an impressive and easy winner at Huntingdon off a mark of 132 back in October despite jumping left handed throughout the contest. Raised 9lb for that effort to a mark of 141, The Druids Nephew ran an absolutely blinder at Cheltenham on his next start when bumping into a well handicapped horse in the shape of Sam Winner with the front 2 pulling 25L clear of the remainder of the field. Over an extended 3m3f, The Druids Nephew didn't always convince with his jumping in the contest but was still travelling very well in the leading quintet approaching 4 out under today's jockey Barry Geraghty. Although making up late ground on dour stayer Sam Winner in the closing stages to be beaten less than 2 lengths, he never looked like ever reaching the winner but he certainly lost little in defeat that day. Sam Winner has since gone on to win a Listed Chase at Aintree and finish 3rd in the Grade 1 Lexus at Leopardstown and will line up as an outsider in this years Gold Cup and it was another excellent performance. The Druids Nephew's next start came in the ultra competitive Hennessey at Newbury back in November and although he finished up being a well beaten 7th in the end I thought his run was way better than the bare result and was very eye catching. Having been held up towards the rear of the field by Davy Russell, The Druids Nephew made an atrocious error early in the race at the 6th fence which saw him drop to last and that mistake would have definitely knocked the wind right out of him. For a lot of horses that error would have virtually ended their participation then and there but, having been given time to recover, The Druids Nephew was sent widest of all by Russell as he made up an awful lot of ground through the whole field and he appeared to be travelling very well as he got himself right into the thick of the action. Jumping the 4th last, The Druids Nephew was probably disputing 2nd but the early mistake was soon taking its toll as he looked held in 4th when blundering 2 out as he eventually faded to be a well beaten 7th. That bare form certainly doesn't do the performance any justice and The Druids Nephew struck me as a very classy animal to be able to overcome his early bad blunder to even get remotely involved in what is one of the most competitive handicaps for staying chasers around. Having had a spin over hurdles in a Grade 2 back in January which should have him spot on for this, there's no doubt in my mind that he's well capable of winning off his new 5lb higher mark of 146 and if taking a horse who was placed in a top class Group 1 out of the equation when looking at his Cheltenham 2nd than a 5lb rise for beating the rest of the field by 25L looks very lenient. The superb Barry Geraghty gets back in the saddle today having being booked by Mulholland a long time ago and I'm sure the yard have been working tirelessly to try and improve his jumping as it could become a big issue in a race of this nature. If they've done that and he jumps largely error free I think this 8 year old could take quite a lot of beating and the 9/1 on offer with Betvictor paying 5 places makes it look a great each way bet. Of the others, I will be having a saver on What A Warrior 33/1 who looks very overpriced if excusing his effort in the Hennessey when running on unsuitably soft ground and the form of his win 2 starts back off a 7lb lower mark looks strong with the runner up Black Thunder winning a Listed Contest and the 3rd home Merry King finishing in that same position in the Hennessey.
3.20 Cheltenham Faugheen 5/4 For all it seems very clear that the sensible bet in this contest is to back The New One each way at 4/1 as it's very hard to see him out of the first 3, I just don't think he'll win as Faugheen seems like a complete and utter freak of nature. Unbeaten and completely untroubled in his career to date, Faugheen comes into this contest with a massive reputation given the complete and utter destruction he has shown in every start to date and absolutely nothing has touched him to date. It's probably true that he hasn't beaten any top class horse yet but the eye doesn't lie sometimes and I think he can show just how special he is today. The New One and reigning champion Jezki rate as the main opposition but I think The New One will get outpaced before staying on up the hill all too late whilst Jezki has been beaten 3 times this year by Hurricane Fly in Ireland and for all he'll definitely improve returned to better ground at Cheltenham I think Faugheen is a class above what he faced in last years contest. Cheltenham will absolutely erupt if 11 year old Hurricane Fly can reel back the years and win a 3rd Champion Hurdle and for all he's won all 3 starts this year in Grade 1s, the world record holder for Grade 1s looks like he needs cut underfoot to be most effective these days and I've always felt Cheltenham wasn't a track that always played to his strengths. For all I'd love for him to win I just don't see it happening. Although this is a world above what Faugheen has faced thus far in his career, I think he'll take the step up to the premier 2 mile contest in his stride and run out an impressive winner on what could be a 3rd success for the yard on the day. 4.00 Cheltenham Annie Power 4/6 I wouldn't recommend ploughing into Annie Power at odds on for all I think she'll prove way too good for her rivals purely as she doesn't come here with an ideal preparation. Although the yard won this the last 6 years with Quevega who came here without a run, that wasn't the plan with Annie Power who had an injury interrupt her season and I'm just not willing to back her at odds on given this hasn't been the preparation they wanted to give her originally. With her only loss in 12 career starts coming when 2nd in last years World Hurdle and rated at least 13lb higher than anything else in the field, you'd suspect if anywhere near 100% fit she'll just prove far too strong for this lot and, as such, I'll be quite happy to sit back and enjoy the race and let her win. 4.40 Cheltenham Sego Success 11/2 I felt in the Champion Hurdle that The New One was the sensible bet each way as he was highly likely to be in the top 3 but I didn't really see him winning but in this case I see it very hard to see Sego Success out of the places but give him a very good chance of winning. Representing last years winning trainer Alan King, the unexposed Sego Success certainly wasn't the best out of these over hurdles but I've been impressed with his last 2 wins over fences and this stout staying chaser looks to have very strong form in the book. After a moderate chase debut, Sego Success put in a very stout staying performance when beating subsequent Skybet Handicap Chase winner (off 139) and RSA Chase entrant If In Doubt at Wetherby over 25f in November and again put in an authoritative staying performance to beat a decent enough field when winning a Listed contest over an extended 3m at Warwick back in January and he certainly comes into this contest as a staying chaser on the up and I certainly think the booking of Sam Waley-Cohen is a positive one. The most obvious looking danger has to be last years impressive Albert Bartlett winner and favourite Very Wood who got his chasing career back on track after 2 pulled up efforts and with Cheltenham winning form in the book he certainly rates as a big, big danger and I'll definitely be having a small bit on the reverse forecast. Of the others, Michael Hourigan's The Job Is Right would have finished a fine 2nd behind Gold Cup hopeful Djakadam in the Theyestes off a mark of 130 had he not fallen at the last and given that he looks like he'd stay all day I can see him reaching the frame also and I've included those 3 in a few reverse tricasts as well. For all Sego Success is what I'll be playing in this, I wouldn't put anyone off either Very Wood or The Job Is Right in what looks a good renewal of the 4 miler but hopefully Sego Success can come out on top. 5.15 Cheltenham Generous Ransom 10/1 This looks like a very hard handicap to solve and originally I thought Rum And Butter 33/1 was interesting on his form last summer but he needs to bounce back in a big way and I've just had a very small bet bet on him. My main bet will be on Nick Gifford's improving Generous Ransom who was impressive on his last start here over half a furlong further and I don't think an 8lb rise looks too excessive. Having ran ok over 2 miles in a decent Beginners Chase on his 2nd start over fences (slipped up on chase debut), he won from a subsequent winner off a mark of 123 at Sandown in testing conditions and then finished behind 2 of today's rivals at Kempton in Stellar Notion and Knock House off a mark of 126 but that race wasn't run to suit and he was staying on well at the finish. Upped a further 2lb for that run, Generous Ransom's last start came here towards the end of January when I thought he was extremely impressive winning whilst wearing first time cheekpieces and I thought he was a good bit more value than the neck margin suggested. Settled just in behind the leaders, Generous Ransom travelled well throughout the contest and took up the running at 2 out. Having been about 5L clear approaching the last he made a mistake and he idled badly towards the finish as he just about held on from the fast finishing Astigos. In addition to reversing previous form with Stellar Notion who won at Kempton, the race looks strong form with the 4th home Caroles Destrier winning impressively in a Listed Handicap at Ascot subsequently off 1lb lower and I think an 8lb rise still leaves this improving 7 year old on a good mark. With just 5lb separating the entire field, it's very clear that this is an ultra competitive race but I think Generous Ransom has got a very good chance and hopefully he can land the spoils to round off day 1.
I simply can't be backing Faugheen, his price is far too short for a horse who's never been in such a competitive field as this one. Would rather back The New One who made an error at a crucial stage in last year's Champion. Annie Power would be the banker of the meeting for a few punters, she's looking to follow in the footsteps of Quevega who was unbeaten in this race for 6 years. Will Annie Power be targeted at this race for the next few seasons like Quevega was? She did run in last season's World Hurdle, I wish Quevega did the same, but Big Bucks was around at the same time so you can see why connections opted for the Mares Hurdle!
Morning all, not long to wait now. Really looking forward to a great first day. It's fair to say if Mullins has a good day I shall have a bad one. Considered joining in the Mullins fanboy's acca but it just can't be that simple....can it? In the first handicap Hobb's Lamb or Cod catches my eye at 40s each way. Carrying the the old Rooster Booster silks I reckon this one may just have the scope for improvement on better ground which will be needed to overcome all the other plots in this race. Good luck all.