Coming to you live from Scholes in West Yorkshire. Tonight’s preview evening sees 9 forum regulars share their thoughts on the runners and riders for the week ahead. They are: OddDog - OD Woolcombe Folly - WF Stick - S Brough - BR Beefy - Beefy TWard - TW Boston Bob - BB and guest panelists: Drever - DR Barney - SBC It has, as ever, been a great effort from the 9 panelists to take their time to write out large, interesting previews. Sadly, we can’t cover all of the races. Every single grade one will be looked at in depth and most of the handicaps will be previewed in some way or the other although a few have failed to make the cut. Hold on to your hats ladies and gents, this is going to be our year. DAY ONE SUPREME NOVICES HURDLE WF: The first leg of a Mullins/ Walsh Accumulator, which could leave bookies either with a bit of cash in their bags to take on the other 3 or leave them in fear and worried about them having to walk home. Comparing Douvan and last year’s winner Vautour they have both a very similar profile coming in to this race. Both very big horses. Douvan too looks like a serious chaser for the future and like Vautour last year we don’t know how good he actually is. Vautour went off a very decent price at 7/2 whereas Douvan looks to be going off around the 6/4. If the Irish have a serious gamble he could even touch 6/5/ to 11/10. Douvans form looks solid but he does have some questions still to answer. In his 1st race he dispatched Sizing John, himself good enough to win a Grade 1 the next time, albeit after Nichols Canyon tumbled. The second was a small G2 field, who have failed to make it in to the frame since. L’Ami Serge has been more impressive than Douvan. He too has racked up a trio of soft ground wins thus far, but he has not run since the Tolworth in January and that does not bode well. With nine hurdle starts to his name already he likely has far less scope for improvement. Shaneshill went to favouritism after winning at the festival last year but imo looks to need further and will have to improve. Tell Us More looks like he needs further and will want it deeper and Seedling might need soft ground to perform to his best. Saying that, he was quite impressive on good too soft at Cheltenham last time out, and that form - like his two previous races - is working out well enough. To sum up, I like DOUVAN and have got him at 3/1 ante post and that will probably be it. BB - I kind of agree with how Wooly’s positioned it. It’s the opening race of the festival and not one I usually like to get too heavily involved in because failure in the first can kill your week. However, i’ve been on Champagne Fever and Vautour when they won this race and I think Douvan is up to winning in a similar fashion. The yard seem very confident and i heard about a piece of work Douvan did recently that, if true, will be good enough to win this race. It’s a very poor renewal to my eye and in that situation 5/2 on the day or there about is certainly good enough to bet him. OD - I’m Looking for some value away from the favourite. I want a horse with course form who has come up the hill well. As most of the field are Irish that narrows it down a lot, to Seedling (20/1). He has plenty of experience under his belt and got the better of Some Plan up the hill in December (that one has since won again) when giving 4lbs. Beefy - This reminds me of 12 months ago, a dead shoot-out between Mullins and an English training superpower this time the 'forum's favourite' good old Nicholas Henderson. Firstly, Douvan is priced purely on hype, even the Mullins fanboys would admit that! (Beefy was seen to have his tongue firmly in his cheek when he said this) He's beaten stayers over 2 miles. Secondly I'm slightly worried about Mullins building him up so much, this didn't happen with Vautour and Faugheen...yes some would say Faugheen was hyped last year and maybe he was, but from the MEDIA, not the trainer or stable. They came in with little fanfare compared to this creature. He could well get chinned and you're putting a bit of faith into the unknown. It's all a bit 'Pont Alexandre'... As is stands L'ami Serge has the better form, it's been franked to a decent level but does he jump well enough and can he handle a better surface? Jollyallan's next in the betting and I tell you something, ****ing Joe Allen's probably a better bet to win a Supreme than this. It's not a strong race as after that you're guessing whose running. Shaneshill isn't bad, has alright form, but I just can’t have last year's Bumper crop, they really weren't much good. Look at Silver Concorde, sure he couldn't even jump out of his own way and he won the ****ing race! Good luck backing anything from last year’s bumper lads, that's all I'd say. Wonga- that's where you's all be heading. I'll probably just lean towards the ‘hype horse’ but both are probably chasers. Don't do your bollocks here boys, long way to go. BR - I can’t be having Douvan at 6/4. He’s only ever run on soft ground and his action screams soft ground specialist. Add that favourites in the Supreme have a poor record in the race and I think he’s unbackable at the odds. L’Ami Serge is a deserved second favourite and it’s hard to crab his form. He has done everything he has been asked to do but i’m not sure there is any value left in his price so i’m willing to look elsewhere. One I do like is Shaneshill at 12/1. He has form at the festival having ran second in the bumper last year and he impressed me in defeat last time out when trapped wide most of the way round. Going for Mullins to get the festival of to a flyer but not the one everyone expects. Stick - I made the mistake of ignoring the Mullins hype machine last year but this time round I am joining in with DOUVAN. He is very lightly raced and travels and jumps beautifully. L’ami Serge possibly has slightly better form in the book but to my eye hasn’t as much scope. I can’t be having Jollyallan but if you were looking for bigger odds I would give SEEDLING an each way chance. TW - No absolute superstars are screaming at me this year and there is absolutely no value in the front 2 in the market. Plenty of the bookmakers will be having specials on the opening race and its best to take advantage of these. Douvan so far has beaten horses over 2 miles, who have thrived when upped to at least 2m 4f. The only decent scalp taken so far would be the Grade 1 winner Sizing John who has clearly improved from that run. L'Ami Serge has gone 3/3 this year on softer and heavy ground but is by Kings Theatre and should appreciate a sounder surface. Highest rated in the field however Henderson has a knack of going close in this race but not quite getting there. (MTOY/Jossies Hill/Darlan). And im looking at a bigger priced improver in Seedling. The horse has thrived since switching to Greatrex this winter and is 3/3 for the season, plenty of winners have come from these races including Some Plan who has since beat a 140 rated horse with ease(receiving 4 lbs from Seedling). Has course and distance form in the book and he stayed on strongly up the hill. There is plenty of question marks about the other runners and im happy to take the 20/1 on offer for him. So a lot of love in the room for Douvan. L’Ami serge respected but no one willing to risk their money on him. Seedling seems a very popular each way bet at a bigger price.
ARKLE WF - Favourite BB - Favourite Beefy - Favourite TW - The betting suggests this is over already and the others are playing for places, but since his defeat to Dunraven Storm i have been an admirer of Vibrato Valtat and swiftly took some of the 25/1 on offer at the time. He travels very well and to my eye the quicker they go the better he jumps, and with Un De Sceaux you know it is going to be quick. Gave 3 lbs to the 153 rated Top Gamble and won as easy as you like. An alternative at a decent price would be Three Kingdoms, showed a very good attitude when beat by VV at Sandown to go down by half a length and since won a grade 2 giving weight to a decent yardstick in Solar Impulse when clattering a few fences on the run in. Stick - One of my biggest fancies of the meeting in VIBRATO VALTAT. He was decent over hurdles but has really come into his own over the bigger fences. Un De Sceaux is way too short for a chancey jumper round here and if Vibrato Valtat is breathing down his neck turning in then we are in for a treat. OD - Again looking for value against the jolly, I’m going for Evan Williams’ runner Court Minstrel (25/1) who has also shown a liking for the Cheltenham hill when quickening clear impressively from Chris Pea Green and Thomas Crapper back in October. Ignore his Sandown run, he hit the 2nd really hard, ground was against him and I think he’s much better going left-handed. Comes here fresh and hopefully will like the decent ground. BR - I’ve wanted to take on Un De Sceaux for this all season but creditable opposition has continuously fallen by the wayside. Having said that, do I want to be taking 4/7 about a horse that has already fallen over fences, has never ran at Cheltenham and is trained by someone who has never won the race? No. Vibrato Valtat was impressive last time out but there is no value in his price anymore. Josses Hill is an interesting one. He needs to jump a lot better but the faster pace here should help and Geraghty is still extremely confident. One I do like though is Sgt Reckless at 16/1. Only one run over fences but that was promising and looked open to plenty of improvement. Hoping he can run into a place and pick up the pieces should UDS under perform. Drever - I think if GOD'S OWN lines up in the Arkle I will be balls deep!! 40/1 is a huge price for a horse that won the Haldon Gold Cup convincingly. Four troublemakers going against the fav. The rest see sense. CHAMPION HURDLE Stick - Last years running was very unsatisfactory and lets hope it’s a clean race this time. Faugheen could be anything, Jezki will run his usual honest race and I cant have the Fly unplaced but there is no way on Earth that I am deserting THE NEW ONE now. The best is yet to come. This really could be a classic renewal. OD - Yep, at the prices I’m going to take a chance on The New One (3/1). Still not convinced Faugheen has met a true Grade 1 animal, Jezki benefitted from Barry Geraghty’s ride last year and hasn’t looked quite the same this season and Hurricane Fly just isn’t the same horse at Cheltenham as he is at Leopardstown. I do believe The New One was genuinely hampered by Our Conor’s tragic fall last year and for me he is the horse in the field with the best gears. BF - Depending on how the Mullins bandwagon and the mug accumulators are going we could see a punt of epic proportions here. It’s not a lie that Faugheen has beaten absolutely trees and that he's an absolute joke of a price at the minute. But 3 points: 1. He's looked hugely impressive in doing so. 2. He could have beaten those 'trees' a lot further should he have had to so the form’s misleading as to his superiority. And finally you can simply only beat what’s put in front of you. Jumping worries for me are non-existent. Watch his 2 mile races. Watch his longer races. It's not rocket science here, the quicker they go the better. So do we steam in (again) on the day?! He's bound to be around 2s or the morning, and he should be that, as much as I think he'll win it well. Jezki's the danger to my eye, (you'd be very easily forgiven for forgetting he's the champion), but he's been getting beat by an OAP and that makes me pretty sure he ain’t a horse who wins 2 Champions. The New One is a good horse, but he’s hardly a great horse. We all know what went on last year, he'd a went close, very close, but this whole complete conviction by the TNO fanboys (everywhere these fanboys) he was desperately unlucky not to win, I don't know how you can be certain. Didn’t he just run on when the race was over? The worrying thing for The New One is that he’s heading into the Champion Hurdle last chance saloon here. If he’s stuffed this year, he won’t be back. Fly has no chance and I say that as his biggest fan, Jezki reverses the form. Arctic Fire is the 'not so dark anymore' darkhorse but he's hardly even each-way value now. Simple race. Faugheen absolutely blows them away, he's different class. I’ve never been as confident about a horse race in my life. TW - Although this looks like a terrific renewal with 2 past champions, the new kid and for some An unlucky loser of the race, its not a race im looking to get stuck into massively due to the difficulty in finding the winner. Faugheen has done everything asked of him so far but looking through the form its hard to pick out what he has beat. The only horses so far to come out of his Neptune are running over 3 miles. He smashed a small field at Kempton but these horses have already proven to be nothing more than grade2/handicappers. He has potential though. The Fly, an astonishing horse will need it to come up soft for Tuesday, which looks increasingly unlikely. Im in the camp that suggest The New One was unlucky last year, hampered badly and brought to a near stop. Yes he made up the ground but would have used up so much more energy in doing so. He needs to brush up his jumping but Cheltenham brings out the best of him and with better ground and a clean round i can see him reversing the form with Jezki. BR - Probably the race of the festival yet again. I’m firmly in The New One camp for this and think the difference in price between him and Faugheen is slightly insulting. His last run can be ignored on horrendous ground and he seems to have brushed up his jumping this year. He was badly hampered last year which cost him any chance of winning the race and did well to finish 3rd considering. Faugheen just doesn’t jump well enough for me. He seems to bunny hop a lot of his hurdles which you can’t afford to do in a champion hurdle. He has been impressive this year but I’m not convinced a breakneck gallop over 2 miles around Cheltenham is what he wants and I just don’t think he warrants being an 11/10 shot. Jezki will run his race but I don’t think he will be good enough to trouble the top two and I see no reason for Hurricane Fly to reverse last years form. One I like at a price to run into a place is Arctic Fire who has run well this year in defeat. WF: Leg 3 of the accumulator- I am and have been very much in the FAUGHEEN camp and for once my Ante post bets have been successful as I (sorry to repeat myself again) have got him at a much bigger price too. He has has readily dismissed his rivals in notching up eight wins, including three at Grade 1 level. Those Grade 1 victories include a dominant display at last year’s festival in the Neptune, when strongly fancied in these quarters, and a runaway victory at the Punchestown Festival. We’ve seen Faugheen run twice this season and on both occasions he has oozed class. Firstly at Ascot, where he breezed clear from the 152-rated Blue Fashion (conceding 4LB) and then the Grade 1 Christmas Hurdle at Kempton, where he thumped the 161-rated Purple Bay by 8 lengths in effortless fashion. I can see why people would pick holes in the form, but it’s arguably better than what The New One has done this season, whilst being visually much more impressive. Jezki he’s failed to win in all three of his starts this season, however in all three of those starts he’s faced the mercurial Hurricane Fly who mops up soft ground Grade 1s like they’re going out of fashion. It could be argued that Jezki comes in to this race with the best form in the book of the top three, ignoring his blunder in the Irish Champion Hurdle, with Faugheen and The New One having faced far easier assignments. The New One cant have at all, he was not unlucky last year- had plenty of time get back to the field last year after being hampered, simple fact is that’s a hypothetical situation that has little bearing on the result this time around. The New One’s preparation for the race has been fairly solid, although his last race at Haydock certainly wasn’t as smooth as connections and backers would have liked, but FAUGHEEN for me. BB - Maybe just a watching race. I love ***heen but jesus evens is tight. He could blow them away but i’d say he’s too short. One thing is for certain. He will have to produce a better run on Tuesday than he has ever done before to win. Strongest opinions of the night for this one. As divisive as it comes. MARES HURDLE Everyone thinks Annie Power will win. Oddy backed L’Unique last year and she placed and will back her again. TWard will back L’Unique and Mischievous Milly. Brough likes Glens Melody. Beefy likes L’Unique also.
Day One Handicaps ALERT ALERT ALERT Sir Barney Chuckles has woken from his brandy induced coma to chirp in with a titbit about the National Hunt Chase. Welcome to the panel Barney. Thanks for joining us. It’s an honour and a pleasure to have such a prominent member of the country set join us this evening. Thank you very much. Over to you Sir Barney. Barney walks onto the stage to rapturous applause. There is huge confidence in the county regarding SEGO SUCCESS in this race. Fences and a stamina trip have been the making of this horse. Has won his last two races, both over 25 furlongs, and unlike so many in this contest the step up in trip should bring about even more improvement. Sego Success’ win last time out was at Listed level when he stayed on very well to account for a couple of decent sorts and that highlighted a horse going places who in the years to come is going to be very hard to beat in stamina sapping events. Alan King has won 2 out of the last 7 renewals of this race (including last year) so knows what is required and the booking of Sam Waley-Cohen can only be viewed as a huge positive. Am very hopeful that he will reward county set support. CHAPS Restaurant Barbados Novices' Handicap Chase – I have been a big admirer of COCKTAILS AT DAWN ever since he arrived at Seven Barrows after being bought for a 6 figure sum back in ’12. He was decent over hurdles but it is chasing that he was purchased for. However, to date fences and Cocktails At Dawn haven’t been a perfect fit and he has a formline of -2F4 over them this term. Off just 135 at Cheltenham though he certainly has the ability to go very close and it is still not beyond the realms of possibility that he could, in time, turn into a 150-160 rated animal. You can guarantee that Mr Henderson’s brilliant brain and ‘magic hands’ will have done everything possible to bring Cocktails At Dawn’s jumping up to scratch and to prove just how well handicapped he is – on undoubtedly his best run over fences to date, at Ascot, the old boy beat into 3rd Garrahalish (by 6 lengths when giving Garrahalish 7 pounds). That one is now rated 134. Meanwhile, he beat Strollawaynow into 4th (by 51 lengths when giving Strollawaynow 10 pounds). That one is now rated 118 after winning a novice handicap and proving competitive off such a perch. I think Cocktails At Dawn has very strong claims. WF: One I have been waiting to come out again is GOLDEN HOOF in the same race Sir Barney. A huge scopey horse out of a talented family and hopefully he would have filled out a little bit since December. He has figures of 23123 from his 5 chasing starts. Although he is still a novice he has a bit more experience than the rest of the field and his form holds well coming second to the likes of Virak, Saint and Sinners and Rum and Better and at 25/1 ew is a huge price Stick - My day one handicap vote goes to PENDRA in the Ultima Business Solutions Handicap Chase. A last fence horlicks cost us collecting big time on him last year. He has had a wind op since and been kept fresh for this. Expect a monster JP punt! Day 2: NEPTUNE NOVICES HURDLE: Stick - My day two “big bet” is on NICHOLS CANYON. He has won two of the seasons biggest “pointer” races and but for one unseat would be coming here unbeaten this year. A gorgeous looker and all class. BB - Windsor Park. Needs to improve his jumping but i like the horse and i think nice ground will see him improve. Looks set to win a grade one at some stage and this week may be it. Beefy - What an advantage for a horse to be named after the home stadium of the mighty Northern Ireland, Windsor Park. Must be worth a couple of lengths anyway. I think this guy ran a huge race in the Deloitte and I think that’s the best novice hurdle race we’ve seen this year. Don’t like the favourite Nichols Canyon, he needs cut and his lead was being ate into by WP so I think he’ll reverse the form. A John Ferguson horse vying for favoritism at Cheltenham, Christmas comes early for the bookies. If Tell us More shows he could be interesting at a tasty price. BR - Nichols Canyon will not win this race. He looks more of a 2 miler to me and the fact he has been Mullins second string for every race this season suggests he isn’t one of their best. One horse I am loathe to select, given his connections, but the one horse I keep coming back to in this race is Parlour Games. I’m a big fan of Blaklion and he has been well beaten twice by Parlour Games this season already. He has finished his races well after travelling well throughout. If he wasn’t trained by John Ferguson then I would be all over him, as it is, it’s more of a tentative selection here. TW - I like the chances of Parlour Games here, he was outpaced by Blue Heron in October(who since won the Kingwell) and has been superb in picking up 2 wins over this trip since, including the trial over course and distance and the grade 1 challow novices. Arpege D'Alene was well held that day and he went on to beat the 153 rated Tea for Two. Danger for me from the Mullins lot would be Outlander, he smashed a few decent horses including Windsor Park and looks like he would stay this trip very well and will get a nice tow into the race. WF: Again Mullins tops the betting with Nicholas Canyon and Outlander Won’t repeat myself on Nicholas Canyon – Outlander – already beaten two of his rivals in this field and altho was second in a small field, easy to excuse he was to keen and then made a mistake but whether he will be able to beat his stable mate we will . Parlour Games boasts some very good form with the beating of Blaklion (twice- one of those in the warm up race to this year, earlier in the year) Port Melon and Vyta Du Roc. He has always seemed to be underestimated on his every start and altho I think he will again, he will have to improve again but his form is solid. I can see a big price winner who I don’t now (haha) but will make my decision come the day. WF: Again Mullins tops the betting with Nicholas Canyon and Outlander Won’t repeat myself on Nicholas Canyon – Outlander – already beaten two of his rivals in this field and altho was second in a small field, easy to excuse he was to keen and then made a mistake but whether he will be able to beat his stable mate we will . Parlour Games boasts some very good form with the beating of Blaklion (twice- one of those in the warm up race to this year, earlier in the year) Port Melon and Vyta Du Roc. He has always seemed to be underestimated on his every start and altho I think he will again, he will have to improve again but his form is solid. I can see a big price winner who I don’t now (haha) but will make my decision come the day. OD - Parlour Games (11/2) for me - a classy, likeable individual and I was very taken with his victory in the Challow Hurdle. Travels, stays and has a real change of gear, and has already devoured the Cheltenham Hill when defeating Blaklion.
RSA OD - If Coneygree runs he wins, EOS. If he doesn’t run, I’ll be looking to Kings Palace to win it (6/1 ante post) as again, he is another who knows how to get up the hill and will relish some “good” in the going description. Tom Scudamore will need to keep the lid on him better than in the Albert Bartlett last year. BB - I’ll be on Coneygree as well if he runs. If he swerves for the Gold Cup then i’ll be on Don Poli. Not a fan of Kings Palace at all. Stick - Will he wont he? Well if he was mine CONEYGREE would be in this and I hope common sense prevails. His demolition of a classy line up at Newbury says it all. Get on for the 2016 Gold Cup before he hoses up in this. Brough - Don Poli is a horse I have never really taken to. He does have course form but he just isn’t for me. The two I am much more interested in are Coneygree and Kings Palace. If Coneygree turns up in this then he has to go well. He jumps so well and has the potential to run this field ragged from the front. Having said that, the RSA is a very gruelling race to win and I think he would have to be very special to win this from the front. Kings Palace has looked top class in every start minus last years Albert Bartlett. That run is a worry but I’m willing to forgive that here. He has the potential to be top class in my eyes and he has course form which is a big plus. If he runs up to the level he can then I think Kings Palace will take all the beating here. WF: One of the most competitive races of the week. DON POLI is worthy favourite he seems to just gallop forever and ever and could very well be a potential gold cup horse. He won the novice hurdle on the Friday last year then went on to be beaten by Beat That and his chasing this season has been nothing but impressive beating Apache Stronghold and The Tullow Tank lto. Another potential Gold Cup horse is Coneygree. He was pulled from a race at my local track at Plumpton after being called lame when he wasn’t and he has done nothing but improve when winning at Newbury, Kempton and back to Newbury. The brother of Carruthers has the same heart of his brother but looks to be the talented one out of his siblings. I hope he goes for the Gold Cup. Kings Theatre, we had this last year but then just blew out and the same imo will happen again. Don Poli looks a solid favourite and is my boring but effective selection. Beefy - Cracker jack race. Coneygree was sublime beating seasoned handicappers. Jumps like a stag and surely but surely they’ll not be daft enough to stick him in the Gold Cup. Novice races for novices, usually pays to heed this advice. Does he need/want softer than what he’ll get here must be a bit of a concern. Seems to hit the ground quite hard with his action, I think he’d like a bit of rain. Kings Palace runs around dominating tiddly fields but he’ll be out of his comfort zone here where he can’t dictate. It’s hard to forget that he was badly found out last year in the potato race, and he’ll be found out this year as well. Don Poli brings the Irish form to the table and his beating of Apache Stronghold looks the best on offer. Previous festival winner, loves jumping off the decent ground. Lots to like about him and little not to like. The Young Master isn’t a back number, can see him placing but won’t be winning. Southfield Theatre is another who brings Festival form to the table. Smashing race, four could win it I’d narrow it down to Don Poli and Coneygree. If Coneygree and Kings Palace tear off in front setting a good gallop, we know Don Poli devours that hill, I can see him getting past Coneygree at the last and running out a decisive winner of a very good RSA. tward - One of the races of the festival. Coneygree looks special, he jumps brilliantly but i fear him and Kings Palace will cut each others throats and make this a proper test of stamina. That leaves me with Don Poli and The Young Master to pick up the pieces. They are both thorough stayers and have won at the track. Im not sure if Don Poli's form is as good as many people are thinking, he beat Apache Stronghold 3 lengths who looked a non stayer and he goes for the JLT instead, same can be said about many of the horses behind that day. The Young Master however has been beating seasoned handicappers including the ever consistent Houblon Des Obeaux. Given he has proven stamina and the nature of the race he looks a smashing bet compared to the 2/1 on offer for Don Poli.
Queen Mother Champion Chase tward - Brilliant renewal this year and looks very open. I worry about Sprinter Sacre after everything that has happened and although he will still be a superb horse he isn’t the force of old and may struggle to put in more 165+ performances. Can’t be having Champagne Fever. Over fences his optimal trip in my opinion is 2 and a half. He isn’t quite fluent enough over 2 and can make mistakes. I fear Dodging Bullets the most who has taken a similar route as Sire De Grugy did last year and appears to be improving with every run. The only downside would be his poor performances in recent festivals however he does look a totally different animal this year and must be feared. I fancy Sire De Grugy though, he didnt quite seem his usual self on seasonal debut before unseating but proved all is well with a huge weight carrying win on his latest start running right up to his handicap mark which would put him nearly half a stone better than every other horse in the race. Oddy - The Black Aeroplane to regain his crown. Ascot was a gentle re-introduction, Geraghty never touched him and we will see something much more like the old Sprinter Sacre here. Wooly - The Tingle Creek at Sandown has long been one of the key trials for the Champion Chase and the stats support this with 10 of the last 14 winners having run in the race. This year’s Tingle Creek saw Dodging Bullets step up markedly on his achievements the previous season, when running out a comfortable winner from solid benchmark Somersby on soft ground. Dodging Bullets travelled well throughout and picked up well after jumping the last to settle the race in determined fashion. He then appeared to step up again on that performance when lowering the colours of market leader Sprinter Sacre in the Clarence House Chase at Ascot, once again on soft ground. It is clear that he is an improved horse this season, but whether he is this year’s Champion Chaser is open to some debate. For whatever reason I cannot visualise him winning the Champion Chase and find myself trying to pick holes in his form.His record going left handed would be a slight concern for me having won only 3 races from 11 starts over jumps going that way round. However, all three of these wins were at Cheltenham, where he has recorded 3 wins from 7 starts. Much more of a concern for me would be the way in which he progresses through the season. Dodging Bullets has never won a race in the spring and his most recent win at Ascot on 17th January was the latest in the season the he has triumphed over jumps. He demonstrated this palpably last season when he recorded impressive victories in his first 3 starts, before being narrowly beaten at Newbury by Module in early Febraury; comfortably brushed aside in an average Arkle in March at the festival and then when finishing last of 5 finishers beaten a long way at Aintree. That is a very worrying profile for me and for those advocating that he looks an each way bet to nothing given his recent performances, I would have a rethink. I believe that we saw Dodging Bullets at his very very best at Ascot last time and I simply cannot see him repeating the same level of form going left handed again in the spring. He simply isn’t for me. Champagne Fever has demonstrated a very high level of form in the spring, having won Grade One races at both the Cheltenham and Punchestown festivals in recent years. He absolutely bolted up on his re-appearance in the Clonmel Oil Chase in November, before running a decent race in the King George, having raced prominently and jumped extremely well, before ultimately not quite getting home. Although he was beaten just over 10 lengths that day he demonstrated real class in his jumping and his attitude. Much like with Dynaste, the King George appeared to be a fact finding mission and the only sensible conclusion was to step back in trip, which he did when falling at the last at Thurles when alongside the smart Don Cossack. The Ryanair seemed to me to be the most plausible option at the festival, but connections rightly perceive the Champion Chase to be wide open, so why not have a go, particularly when your horse has demonstrated such a high level of form over 2 miles at previous festivals. The question is does he have the gears of a Champion Chaser. Is he a Moscow Flyer or a Sprinter Sacre? The answer for me is no. Whilst he did beat Jezki when winning the Champion Bumper and My Tent or Yours when winning the Supreme Novices, those races are a very different test to that of a Champion Chase. I firmly believe that he is a two and a half miler and lacks the explosive pace of a Champion Chaser. Now Sire De Grugy. Sire De Grugy does bring a very high level of form to the table, including victory in last year’s race, following on from majestic performances in both the Tingle Creek and Clarence House Chase. His loss and fall in his first run of the season was apparently due to him not being schooled, the ground was un workable but they thought with him being a professional he would be able to do his job, which worked out to be well not going the way they wanted. Having effectively ruled out the majority of the field, it will come as no surprise that my proposed Champion Chaser for 2015 is Sprinter Sacre. His problems have been well advertised and many of his critics will be keen to make reference to an ‘underwhelming’ performance in the Clarence House Chase at Ascot when beaten fair and square by Dodging Bullets. However, that doesn’t tell the whole story. Sprinter Sacre travelled very well for most of the race. Whilst his jumping wasn’t as exuberant as we have come to expect, he appeared to be travelling much the best as the race began to get serious, before producing a relatively weak finish. I believe there was a lot to like about the performance. He showed that he still has the class to tank his way through a top class race and he was only outdone by a horse at the peak of his powers, with several previous runs under his belt and who produced the performance of his life. So with better ground, increased fitness and the full commitment of jockey Barry Geraghty all but assured at Cheltenham, I have every confidence that Sprinter Sacre will be crowned champion again. He will be ridden much more positively at Cheltenham than he was at Ascot and will be asked for 100% effort. The race also looks likely to be run to suit with a strong pace almost assured. This will bring class to the fore and will help to identify this year’s extraordinary horse. As a wise man once said, the difference between ordinary and extraordinary is that little ‘extra’. In respect of a Champion Chaser, that little extra is the high cruising speed, the spectacular jumping, the standout physical capability to be set apart from your rivals. I believe that Sprinter Sacre can still be extraordinary and he wouldn’t even have to be to win. BB - Wooly’s massive write up has broken me. I can’t be arsed thinking about this race now. That’s a hell of a lot of writing to settle for the favourite! Beefy - It’s a case of whose the least unlikliest winner a bit isn’t it. Sprinter Sacre looks vulnerable as heck and one the bookies will be mad keen to lay on the day. Sire de Grugy is the reigning champ and he should be favourite. But he did win a rubbish QM, wasn’t even Somersby placed behind him? Dodging Bullets has been pothunting for Nicholls all winter in weak races run in bogs? Would be a shame if he was good enough to win a Champion Chase. Mind you Champagne Fever hasn’t done much more but he’s possibly one of the more solid in the race as he’s had a decent season and he thrives in March under Festival conditions. Surely he’s a Ryanair horse though? Mr Mole is Mr Mole. He does what he wants, but he won’t be winning this. Sire de Grugy will, or if he doesn’t Fever will. Brough - Probably the most intriguing race of the festival which revolves around Sprinter Sacre. If he retains his old ability then he wins this and makes 5/2 look a huge price in doing so. I was taken by his comeback run and I think he will prove the doubters wrong and win this. Sire De Grugy was impressive last time but they weren’t top class horses that he beat and if he comes up against SS at his best then he loses. The other I would consider is Champagne Fever. Personally I think this isn’t the right race for him but he has festival form and has to go well. He is a spring horse and will be trained to the minute to this. If he can get SS into a battle coming up the hill then I would definitely be on Champagne Fever to grind out the win. On balance though I have to stick with Sprinter Sacre with a saver on Champagne Fever. Stick - A fascinating race where a lot has to be taken on trust. Dodging Bullets actually tops the ratings according to the RP but he has been found wanting at three festivals already. So for me its all about the other two and based on what I have seen of them this season I would rather side with SIRE DE GRUGY. The Newbury run was calamitous for both horse and jockey but he came back in emphatic fashion at Chepstow. I hope Sprinter Sacre runs is race as this has the potential to be as good as it gets!
BUMPER Stick I like to go on what I have been visually impressed by where this race is concerned and that shortens my list to Modus, Moon Racer, See The World and GENERAL PRINCIPLE. I rule out Modus and Moon Racer purely on the basis that they lack a recent run. See The World is passed over because he most likely will fail to cope mentally so I am left with GENERAL PRINCIPLE. A point to point winner it was impossible not to love his Punchestown bumper debut win. Never out of first gear, a Gigginstown horse with a huge future. Brough - No strong opinion on this race and its one in which I have a terrible record. It’s so hard to split all the Mullins horses so I’m going to take a chance on Wait For Me who won in the style of a good horse when I saw him win on debut at Ascot. Oddy - Moon Racer. This may be suicide but I really don’t rate this year’s Irish bumper horses and Moon Racer’s win at Cheltenham was ultra-impressive. Might have an e/w saver on Liz Doyle’s horse Golan Lodge, who was impressive in the mud at Fairyhouse but should love better ground on breeding. tward - Not a race i do particularly well in but the fact Giggingstown send a couple of runners speaks volumes, they tend to ignore the race. General Principle and Stone Hard are the horses in question and both have won their bumper races impressively. Given they are trained by Gordon Elliot and Willie Mullins they will both do for me at each way prices. BB and Beefy - pick your own. It’s mainly guesswork. Day 2 Hanidcaps Stick - The day two handicap pick is simple, SIRE COLLONGES wins the Cross Country. Excellent course form and at the ratings has this in the bag, great price! SBC - I agree with Stick. Mr Nicholls’ SIRE COLLONGES is weighted to go very close in this contest over a unique course he already has winning experience at. Beat the likely favourite, Any Currency, half a length that day (Sire Collonges now 17 lbs better off) and again last time out (by 2.25 lengths and now 8 lbs better off) when a highly impressive 3rd, off level weights, to the legendary Balthazar King – a 4 time winner over Cheltenham’s X-Country course. Unlike so many of his opponents has nothing to fear from either the trip or course. Kept fresh by Mr Nicholls since then Sire Collonges should arrive at the Festival in the very best of condition. BB - Sire Collonges for me as well. SBC - Coral Cup – I’ve been a huge admirer of ACTIVIAL ever since he won last terms Adonis Hurdle. Has placed form in 2 very, very hot handicaps this season but I feel that in those, over 2 miles, things have been happening a shade too quickly for him. The old boy should absolutely relish the step up to 2 miles 5 furlongs here and a perch of 147 gives him every chance to be ultra competitive. Has long promised to win a big pot and in this race I think he may achieve that aim. BB - I’m on Arbre De Vie at 20/1 but only because Ricci put him up as a terrific chance at a price at a preview night.
DAY 3 JLT Stick - I would most likely have been in the Ptit Zig camp but you really don’t want to come here on the back of a fall so its VAUTOUR for me but not a big betting race BB- Vautour - nap Beefy - Vautour needs to jump better than he has done this season, that’s for sure. But we all saw how good he was last year, they always thought he was a chaser and one who needs a trip. Well this is his race then if there right. Ptit Zig, conversely is one whose chasing has evidently improved him a lot and he’s trained by a master at getting horses jumping. However he did deck himself the last day and it’s 10 years since a horse won a chase at the Cheltenham Festival off the back of a fall! See that, that’s a proper stat, not like all this Paul Nicholls ain’t trained a chase winner at Cheltenham and Ruby ain’t ridden a chase winner since…what a load of bollocks them stats are. Apache Stonghold was put in his place over hurdles at this trip by Vautour but has taken to chasing really well. Valseur Lido got beat by him the last day and I’m not totally sold on VL. At a bigger price The Tullow Tank hasn’t looked great since smashing up Mala Beach on debut, and his jumping looks a bit scared. Not Josses Hill terribleness but far from great. If he got his jumping together, and he was decent the last day, he’s one coming back into a bit of form with a bit of class about him so he mightn’t disgrace himself but Vautour wins. He’ll be a decent price on the day, you’ll get 3/1 anyway in the morning Brough - Ptit Zig has been my nap of the festival in the build up. His fall last time out is slightly off-putting but hopefully he will have learnt his lesson from that. I have just been so impressed by his runs to date and particularly how he powers away after the final fence of his race. He looks a real stayer to me and I’ve already backed him to win next years Gold Cup at 50/1. Vautour is a danger but his form this season looks a bit suspect. I would take Valseur Lido to reverse the form with Apache Stronghold and should hopefully grab a place but Ptit Zig is definitely my choice in this. tward - Im against Vatour, think he should be in the Arkle and awful price. Ptit Zig on the other hand has been very impressive in his first few starts over fences, he did fall last time out when against his elders but the fact he was sent off 6/4 favourite against horses at the head of the Ryanair market tell you how much they think of this horse. He normally jumps very well and travels nicely. The way him and Champagne West pulled away from others in the Dipper was very impressive. An Alternative for the each way lovers would be Splash of Ginge. Has ran over course and distance 4 times this season, winning 2, falling when looking the main danger and well beaten when giving lumps of weight to some very useful horses. Loves the course and is a different animal going left handed. Definitely has place claims at 20/1. WF: Have backed Vautour on most of his starts , absolutely love the horse and wont be deserting him, Ptit Zig altho beating Josses Hill his form is not very strong at all and proved me right on his last start when he fell and left the race for Balders Success back to novice company but that gamble did not go well for nicholls and may have left an effect on him, Apache Stronghold may be the only one to give him a race his form holds well but has some form to find on hurdle rating and has been already beaten by Vautour but he has beaten some of this field already is 1-1 with Valseur Lido and to Don Poli. One interesting runner is Gods Own who has already won the Ryanair chase over in Ireland beating Balders Success, Champagne Fever, Trifolium and then wining the Haldon Gold Cup his form is rock rock solid and altho he has yet to find it recently on his best form he will be right up there and at 25/1 NRNB he is a cracking price. Oddy - I think this is actually a much better race than the Arkle and have it between Ptit Zig, Vautour and Apache Stronghold, with slight preference for Ptit Zig. I think it speaks volumes that Nicholls tried him in open company last time and, although he fell, I think he will have too much for these. Ryanair Oddy - Don Cossack is a lovely horse and I would love to see him in the Gold Cup – maybe next year? I think he will take this so win bet on him and maybe a sneaky e/w on Wishfull Thinking, the highest rated horse in the race. WF: Don Cossack has improved a stone or so on ratings this season in a four race unbeaten streak which included the Grade 1 John Durkan in early December, and the Grade 2 Kinloch Brae Chase in mid-January. Whilst difficult to crab a horse with figures of four out of four, it is still possible to pick holes in the form of his runs.The two key efforts are those alluded to above, in the first of which he benefited Boston Bob suffering material interference; and in the second of which Champagne Fever fell at the last.In the Don's defence, he would probably have won both races anyway, albeit by relatively fine margins. But it must be beyond question that in that pair of two-and-a-half-milers he took on horses unsuited by the distance: The Cossack will go on any ground, and the Ryanair looks his ideal range. There remains an unanswered question about the specific - and significant - demands of Cheltenham, with his fall in the RSA Chase last year the only attempt. So, while he comes into the race on an upward curve, I'm not personally convinced he would have been able improve to win the race with the likes of Dynaste and Cue Card should they have turned up but as they haven’t they have him all to beat. Balders Success has Cheltenham figures of FUF- the old saying horses for courses- this is not his. So once sorry to be boring again I like the favourite Don Cossack tward - My NAP for the festival - Taquin Du Seuil, although i still believe he can be a gold cup horse the stop start nature of his season im pleased they are going for the Ryanair this year. He gets the trip very well, won the JLT last year. He was well backed on ground too quick at Wetherby but finished a fast finishing 4th, wasnt right in the Betfair chase and was put away over christmas. Came back and travelled like the best horse in the race but fitness took its toll and faded into 4. Back down in trip will suit perfectly. Main danger will be Don Cossack who has progressed nicely this year but jumping has let him down before and there will be no hiding place in this race and he has to prove his likeness for the course. BB - Taquin for me as well for many of the reasons Wardy has stated. I love his price. Love that he has Cheltenham form at the Festival. Love that he’ll battle and love that competition is very think on the ground. Brough - A race in which I have an appalling record. Don Cossack is a horse who I have never warmed to. I really want to oppose him but a bit like the Arkle, this race seems to have fallen apart somewhat. Ma Filleule is the most overrated horse in training in my opinion. Can’t be having her at all in this. Balder Succes would be of interest but his form at the festival of FUF is enough for me to steer clear. Two I like at a price are Johns Spirit and Menorah. JS ran very well for a long way in the King George and loves it at Cheltenham. Menorah seems to have finally got his act together over fences and has won impressively already this season. With a clear round he looks a big price at 16/1. Beefy - Can’t have Don Cossack here. Something about him, I just think he’ll be found out despite a large part of me thinking he could be a penalty kick. Ma Filleule is the latest to be getting the Hendo hype treatment but she’s short enough now. Balder Succes doesn’t like big fields, can’t see him winning. By contrast, John Spirit loves the place, but there’s the old argument that he likes the old course not the new course, which is what he runs on here. Thinking of The New One, it’s the opposite for him, he’s better on the New Course with it’s a more galloping nature and he’s not as readily outpaced there as he does be in the Champion. Anyway I’d chance Johns Spirit. O’Neills getting winners again, he’ll always leave with one or two and has a sound chance with Johns Spirit. Stick - I am really keen on JOHNS SPIRIT. He has progressed really nicely over the last two seasons and this really is the perfect track and trip for him.
World Hurdle Stick - Suffered more than most for what we do not have in the line up than most. My leaning is toward LIEUTENANT COLONEL who has looked highly progressive during this season. He has only just stepped up to this trip but looks tailor made WF: Nicholls and Stewart have both been playing down the Saphir Du Rheu story and yes he does have a lot to do to come anywhere near Big Bucks but he has the profile of him he looked a natural progressive type over hurdles with solid form and then didn’t deliver when chasing, as we know the distance isn’t a problem when he reeled in the hardy Reve De Sivola in the cleeve, he has speed will stay and has course form, cant realy be having any of the irish challengers and Zarkandar I feel hase never really gone on as much they would have liked after the triump and will get found out he is always the bridesmaid and never the bride . Beefy - Awful race. Last years 4th is favourite FFS. Rock on Ruby I don’t think will stay. Zarkandar he’s having bother beating Reve de Sivola, so if he’s good enough to win it I’d be disappointed. I’ll look for an improver and at double figure prices Un Temps Pour Tout would want to be winning a few of these things to recoup the £450,000 or whatever they paid for him. He’s an improver, unexposed. As good a chance as any in it. Brough - Saphir Du Rheu isn’t good enough for me and Zarkandar doesn’t have what it takes to win at the very top level so I’m going to be looking elsewhere. The two I like in this are Rock On Ruby who looks like 3m is now his trip. Solwhit won this two years ago with a similar profile and I think ROR has a big chance. The other I like is Jetson. Beat Quevega at Punchestown last year which is top class form and has had a couple of decent runs already this year. I think he can reverse the form with Lieutenant Colonel and looks a decent each way shout at 16/1. tward - Saphir Du Rheu went back to hurdling in the Cleeve and won from Reve De Sivola who would have preferred the ground conditions. Trainer has stated he has plenty more to improve and he should be able to run to at least his mark of 165 which is superior to all others in the race. Zarkandar is a super horse but in a strongly run World Hurdle(with Cole Harden blasting from the start) i dont see him staying and he may have been flattered with his finishing position last year. Danger looks to be from Ireland with Lieutenant Colonel improving with every race and thriving off the step up in trip and Monksland who is on the comeback from a lengthy lay-off. Day Three Handicaps WF: Regal Encore in the Pertemps Hurdle – although he is a follow over the cliff horse he finally got his head in front which will hopefully give him the confidence to go on and do it again and is definitely the class horse in the field I will be following him once again SBC - All together now, there are usually more plots in the Pertemps than in an Agatha Christie novel but one who may have got in here unbelievably lightly is Mr Henderson’s CALL THE COPS. My regular readers were ebullient when he dotted up, at Donny, on the concluding day of February and the old boy only incurs a 5 lb penalty for that success here. Looked ultra impressive that day as he jumped, travelled and then quickened in the manner of a very good horse. I don’t think the weight rise will stop him nor, to be frank, will any of the plots sure to be unleashed once the tapes rise. Mr Henderson’s brilliance will confound them all. Stick - My day three handicap fancy is for LITTLE JON in the BA&M although there is a high possibility that he wont get in the race.
Day 4 Triumph Hurdle tward - Extremely trappy race and im very keen to take on Peace and Co. He is far too buzzy and this race takes a stayer to win it and given how he acts i dont think he will stay. Top Notch is my fancy he is a superb jumper for a juvenile and has plenty of experience on his side having run in France a couple of times also. He is sure to love the test this race will provide. Danger for me comes from his stablemate Hargam, he won last time like a very good horse travelling beautifully before sprinting home without coming off the bridle. He has looked like he wouldnt like a battle and the rough and tumble of a Triumph might come to soon for him. At a price i like the look of Pain Au Chocolat, he demolished Old Guard whos form ties in nicely with Karazek which he has close ties with Hargam and given he is more than 3x the price of that horse id be happy with an each way price. Irish dont look good enough this year. WF: A race I have never really looked in to that much Peace and Co looks a worthy favourite but his stablemate Hargam looks good but I do like Pain Au Chocolate- ran well at Plumpton then next time out also I like them for breakfast too haha Brough - I’m very sweet on Peace And Co in this. He looks to have bags of potential and I think he can outclass these similar to the way Our Conor did a couple of years ago. Hargam is a horse I like but he seems to lack the ‘star quality’ that Peace And Co has shown. Beltor was mightily impressive last time out but I’m not convinced he would have found much if push came to shove that day and she looks like a bridle horse to me. He will also need to learn to settle as he was far too free last time out which is a serious concern around Cheltenham. The Irish raiders don’t look strong enough to me with Gwencily Berbas probably being my pick of them at a good price of 25/1. BB - No, not for me. Oddy - I’m on Karezak e/w ante post at 25/1 and I think he has decent place prospects. Don’t like the favourite at that price and Hargam and Beltor are the 2 I would rather be with. Tough race though, small stakes only on this one. Beefy - If Mullins dominates most of the races this year, Nicky looks to hold the aces here. Peace and Co looked pure class first time out, not so the next day but that was run at a dawdle so I wouldn’t hold it against him. You need to stay in this, will he? Hargam looks like he’ll grind it out and ain’t far behind on the book. Top Notch could be that. Beltor won like he was in second gear last time out. Tough race, good race. Irish contenders looks weak by comparison. Still think Kalkir could improve for a test like this, but is he good enough? I think at the prices Hargam is the one but it’s an exceptional race. Stick - If BELTOR were trained by Nicky Henderson or Willie Mullins he would be 5/4. He pulled the jockeys arms out for a mile and six furlongs at Kempton before just quickening away from some good animals. The strong pace will suit him ideally and his finishing speed will be devastating up that hill. Paece And Co will not go down without a fight and I would rather Bidourey headed to the Fred Winter as he is a danger. Albert Bartlett Stick - I am too much in love with VALUE AT RISK to have a sensible opinion. Beefy - Black Hercules is only favourite because he’s trained by Mullins right?! Anyway he’s from last year’s bumper so bin him. Haven’t been impressed by him. No More Heroes was beat the last day, he scoped dirty, he’s better than that. Does he need it soft? I don’t think he does, his pedigree doesn’t scream mudlark. Blaklion got turned over the last day by Caracci Apache but the English horses are all finishing in a heap, the form looks suspect. Value at Risk is coming here on a bit of an after thought as they felt he was a Neptune horse before. Fletchers Flyer I’d a been keen on of the bigger priced horse but was underwhelmed the last day. I’ll stick with No More Heroes, if he handles the ground, he’s the one to beat. BB - No strong opinion but Skelton has convinced me to have a little punt on Value at Risk. Brough - As mentioned earlier, I’m a big fan of Blaklion and if Parlour Games runs well earlier in the week then it will only improve my confidence. The two races he lost weren’t run to suit and the times he has won he has looked mightily impressive. Twiston-Davies really rates him and I think he has to go well in this race. Black Hercules is a big danger but I’m not convinced he is as good as people think he is. Having said that I think he is definitely the biggest threat to the selection. WF: Have backed Value At Risk backed him for both this and the Neptune as a horse I like but Im sure sticks preview of him will be better than mine so listen to him. Oddy - Hard to know what’s even going to run, Mullins still has half the yard entered but Black Hercules is probably a worthy favourite. Blaklion place claims. I was impressed all season with Blaklion he has been performing well at trips too short when behind Parlour Games twice, with STD back in the saddle id be happy that he would find more improvement than he showed last time out. He has won at the track and trip this season already and looks a nice price at 12/1. Think of the Irish No More Heroes would be the horse to give him the biggest threat, he oozed class when beating Shaneshill over a shorter trip and then scoped badly last time out. Should have plenty more to come now upped in trip and is worth a saver. SBC - VALUE AT RISK was a classy bumper horse across the Irish Sea last term and he has transferred these talents most effectively into novice hurdles this season. Won by 22 lengths, at Newbury, on his hurdling bow, and was then a very close 2nd, in a Grade 2 at Cheltenham, last time. That effort was over 2 and a half miles but stepped up to 3 miles in this contest expect this stout stayer, whose dam won the Midlands National, to excel. Value At Risk looks a hugely promising individual and this should be the race that launches him onto the big stage.
Cheltenham Gold Cup tward - The way Silvianaco Conti buckled after the last fence last year screams to me that this extended trip is just too far for him. He is a 3mile specialist. Im keen on Carlingford Lough, he won a grade 1 at Punchestown over 3m 1f and the horse in 3rd Morning Assembly would represent the best of last years RSA form and he absolutely demolished them. Since then he had a lovely seasonal debut when staying on at the end in the Lexus Chase before staying on again in the Hennesey to nab Foxrock. The extra 2 furlongs will be right up his street and aslong as he puts in a clean round of jumping i cant see him being out of the placings. The forgotten horse in this race has to be Bobs Worth. He is a 3 times festival winner and looked on course for at least 2nd last year but appeared spooked, still not sure what to make of it. Its been known since that all roads lead to Cheltenham and im not worried about his season debut run in the lexus. The ground was against him and no horses from the back got near the front 3(apart from Carlingford Lough and Boston Bob). He loves this track and with the good/good to soft ground expected there is no way he is the price he currently is. Oddy - Very excited about this year’s renewal, with several horses having legitimate claims. Many Clouds has looked a very resolute stayer and has the same sort of profile as Bobs Worth the year he won it. My money will probably be on Many Clouds, although I have a small ante post dabble on Lord Windemere and would be interested in the novice Coneygree if he takes his chance. Will wait for a going check on the day, good ground would probably put me off Many Clouds. WF: One I like and has gone well under the radar- Sam Winner – beaten the likes of The Druids Nephew, Ma fieulle then came 3rd to Road To Riches beating Boston Bob, Carlingford Lough and Lord Windermere. He's a four time Cheltenham course winner, and he won over a furlong further than the Gold Cup trip there in November, lugging top weight of 11-12 in a Grade 3 handicap chase.Not beaten far in the Lexus, he was also not beaten far in the RSA Chase last March, but that may be the story of his Grade 1 career: he wasn't beaten far in the G1 Finale Hurdle at Chepstow as a four year; he wasn't beaten far in the Triumph later that season; and he hasn't been beaten that far in those two G1 chases this term.He's a consistent lad and he might just have been bottomed by the February run in heavy ground prior to the RSA last year. This time, granted a slightly easier run to the FestivalSilviniaco Conti showing consistent top class form. Wins in the Betfair Chase and the King George, for a second year in a row, have propelled him favouritism and that looks absolutely fair. he went into last year's Gold Cup off a similarly authoritative King George romp but curled up on the Cheltenham run in Road To Riches. His has been a steady progression through the chasing ranks, having started out as a thrice beaten novice at trips of up to 2m5f. In his defence, those were all Grade 1 events, and more recent evidence suggests they were all at sub-optimal distances.In fact he's unbeaten in three chase starts at two and three-quarter miles or beyond. Importantly, Road To Riches is proven on a variety of different going, from heavy to good. True, he's yet to race beyond three miles, so there is a stamina question to answer but according to Bryan Cooper he was going away when winning last time to suggest enough there was more in the tank. Brough - The horses that won’t win: Silviniaco Conti – Wont stay up the hill, already been beaten in this race twice. Djakadam – Not good enough, form nowhere near good enough. 10/1 is a laughable price. Holywell – Handicapper. Not good enough. Lord Windermere – Much better horses have tried and failed to win back to back Gold Cups (Bob’s Worth, Kauto Star). Coneygree – Can’t be having a novice in this. Horses that may win: Many Clouds – Not sure he has the class to win a GC but he has the form to go close. Road To Riches – has the form to win but doubts about him running away from Ireland. Carlingford Lough – again I’m not sure he is good enough but the AP McCoy factor means he has a chance (i.e. Synchronised). Bob’s Worth – criminally overpriced for this. Great record around Cheltenham and his last two races (last years GC and the Lexus) were on ground that was too soft for him. My selections – Bobs Worth and Carlingford Lough Beefy - Third time lucky for Conti? I have my doubts but I’d have my doubts over a right few of these beasts. Many Clouds I like, but like Coneygree, will he handle spring gound. One who will relish it is Road to Riches. Improver, won 2 Grade Ones on the bounce, showed great staying prowess the last day. Ticks the boxes as they say. I’ve had Djakadam onside all year at a decent price, but he’s been backed into a farcical price now. He’s another would probably want cut. Could be the best of the lot, we just don’t know what he is. Holywell and Carlingford Lough were both possible mounts for AP, well he shouldn’t have spent much time deciding between them, if he did, as neither has a chance of winning. I think Road to Riches wins it, I think at close to 10s he’s an excellent bet. Stick - Am in a real quandary over this race. I am quite confident that Silviniaco Conti will not win. Bobs Worth could but he hit the wall big time last year. I am sure Lord Windermere has been campaigned with just this in mind. I would love to see Many Clouds in the shake up also. However my two against the field are ROAD TO RICHES and DJAKADAM. BB - Sam Winner each way but i’ll wait till the day and take 50’s. Foxhunter A lot of love for Paint the Clouds. BB’s biggest ante post bet this year. Stick is on Current Event and twardy mentions Chapoturgeon without much conviction. DAY 4 Handicaps WF: Although he has an awful record on his fathers race Vieux Lion Rouge looks to have a good chance in the Martin Pipe Conditionals Race. David always trys to lay one out for this and although he hasn’t succeeded yet this year will be different. BB - ROI DES FRANCS in the Martin Pipe. Very well hanicapped. Giggy always seem to lay one out for Cheltenham. This is it this year. Stick - My day four handicap fancy is for ACTIVIAL in the County Hurdle. He is still very lightly raced and open to any amount of improvement. And that draws the Not 606 Preview Evening to a close. All that is left to say is best of luck over the course of the week. Thanks for reading. Good luck one and all. Let’s bash those bookies!
Well put together Bob, nice one mate. Particularly like the precis pieces on day one! Top marks for your hard work!
Great work Bob, excellent summarising. Some of the lads need to learn to get to the point Almost spooky the love for Seedling in the Supreme - must be a lump on job
The best line of the whole preview Cheers for taking the time to do this Bob (and everyone else who contributed), great read
Seedling is really interesting for the each way thieves it seems and a little spooky that Barney and I have both dipped into the Cross Country for a BIG fancy. Ignore my day four hcap fancy as ACTIVIAL is Coral Cup bound not County Hurdle!
Absolute legend Bob for putting that together mate, outstanding job! Only disappointed no-one could read my Josses Hill assessment lol Must say Wooly how long did u spend doing yours lol I spent 2 hours on mine, but you probably spent that on your QM writeup alone! Very good read, some interesting views. Let's hope for a safe Festival and all horses come back in one piece.
Well done lads, great read.one im taking from it is sire collonges, very backable ew price at 8/1.interesting there is no universal love for uds, I would have had him as banker material ahead of douvan & faugheen
Absolutely top stuff Bob!! So well put together must have taken u as long to put it together as all of us did to write it put together!! But 1st class thanks
