MOG haven't you already put up both Jollyallan and L'ami Serge for this race, now Shaneshill too?? Shaneshill getting decent shout on the previews circuit, whether that's good or bad! I took a stance preseason that I was keen to oppose last year's Champion Bumper and I think it's been shown to be pretty weak. Nothing from it has reeked superstar to me and I'm keen to take on anything from it in the big novice hurdles next week.
I put up Jollyallan at 25/1 purely on price as I told you at the time, did not put up Lami Serge, have him in a dbl with Josses Hill but I have not "put him up". Im not tipping many horses at 9/2 on the day never mind antepost, bit too obvious for me to "put up". As I said, I hadnt considered Shaneshill for the race until now, he is now my main fancy for the race and I have the value on Jollyallan.
When was the last time a superstar ran in the Supreme though. Price wise thinks Douvan should be in the Neptune, as it's less of a cavalry charge. But I fancy he has so much class he will win pulling a cart. The way he has travelled through his races suggests to me he has a huge engine. His last run was like an exercise canter
Well Mullins was quoted “I would’ve said Douvan has similar qualities to Mikael D’Haguenet and Fiveforthree, so he could be one for the Neptune” He beat handicappers last time the way he should have, he might be the best horse in the race, hes definetely one of the best in the race but hes a mugs bet at the prices.
What about his 12 length victory over Sizing John who was a G1 winner NTO, giving him 3 pounds aswell
Sizing John won a Grade 1 in name only, it was a farce of a race. Im not falling for that form but good luck to you.
That Sizing John G1 win was run in a bog and turned into a three runner affair after Nichols Canyon fell and another pulled up injured. Not a formline I would put too much faith in.
I understand your point regarding that G1, but Sub Lieutenant who was 6 lengths 2nd in that race has since won a G2. So it may not have been a great G1 but the form is still pretty useful. For any horse to beat Sizing John 12 lengths hard held, giving weight away suggests he's abit of a beast
The only drawback I can see to Douvan is that he looks a chaser in the making instead of a hurdler. It might hold him back. It might not.
Does L'Ami Serge jump well enough to win a Supreme? Not to me he doesn't. And if he's not jumping well in small field races in a bog, there has to be a risk Cheltenham will find him out big style. Douvan by contrast has an outstanding hurdling technique for one so inexperienced. He is slick, fast and accurate, which is a huge asset in a race like this. Anyone taking less than 7/1 on L'ami Serge "needs locking up" in my opinion
Fair point on hurdling technique Beefy, it was that asset which drew me to Vautour's chances last season after he won Deloitte (and funnily enough made me think Faugheen wouldn't make a Champion Hurdler - his jumping as a novice was nowhere near as good as Vautour's). I need to rewatch Douvan's races closely to assess his jumping technique. He's had only 2 runs over hurdles in small fields on soft ground, so that may not tell us too much about how he is likely to hurdle round Prestbury Park, but I can see Ruby wanting to sit handy, or maybe even dictate the pace like he did on Vautour? Do we see anything in the likely field that will be desperate to make the running?
I reckon the strongest renewal I can remember was when Al Ferof beat Spirit Son, Sprinter Sacre and Cue Card. Although none of them went on to great things over hurdles. Spirit Son would have been a big Champion Hurdle contender had he not caught a virus.
What about the 2013 race? Champagne Fever (future Grade 1 Chase winner and Arkle 2nd) beats My Tent Or Yours (multiple future Grade 1 winner over hurdles) with Jezki (future Champion Hurdler) in 3rd. For me both last year and 2012 were poor renewals (despite what Darlan later promised to be before his sad demise), 2011 is generally considered very strong (Al Ferof, Spirit Son, Sprinter Sacre, Cue Card). Menorah's wasn't too bad (Get Me Out Of Here, Oscar Whiskey). It's usually not the worst race of the meeting
Doesn't the fact that Al Ferof beat both Sprinter Sacre and Cue Card sort of scream, "the Supreme is a great race but don't ever bet large in it"? Does to me.
Not a world beater I agree, but came second at 4 festivals by a head, a nose, 3.5 lengths and a short-head so can't be all bad
I agree to a point - however, the Bumper winner has a pretty good record of placing in this so I have gone for the fancy price on Silver Concorde. Douibtless he'll be pulled out if he hasn't already been!
