The first race of the Cheltenham festival gets underway with the traditional "roar" from the crowd and a clutch of novice hurdlers head up the Cheltenham striaght with a circuit full ot turns and undulations in front of them, not to mention 8 flights of hurdles on the old course. This is the moment where anticipation reaches fever pitch and then in about 4 minutes turns to either jubilation at getting the meeting off to a winning start, or throwing away the first of many losing slips and turning attention to the Arkle. Willie Mullins and Ruby Walsh will be bidding for the hat-trick having taken the last 2 runnings with Champagne Fever and Vautour. It could be a case of deja vu this year as the short-priced favourite, Douvan, wears the same Ricci silks which Vautour carried so effortlessly to victory last year, and those on fancy ante post vouchers (and probably a huge chunk of the day 1 crowd who are looking for the jolly to win the first and boost the coffers) will be hoping Ruby can again dictate the race from the front and kick on when he chooses. Noises from all over Ireland suggest Douvan is regarded the proverbial "machine" and his price at around 7/4 seems to reflect that, but what of his opposition and where might some value still be found in the race? Next up in the betting is Nicky Henderson's L'ami Serge at around 4/1, and this one completed a hat-trick over hurdles when winning the Grade 1 Tolworth Hurdle at Sandown early in January. The second that day, Jolly's Cracked it, looks a decent yardstick and went on to finish 5th in the Betfair Hurdle and the official handicapper has L'ami Serge just 1lb below Douvan at 153. Next up in most markets is the JP McManus owned (and therefore probably AP McCoy ridden) Jollyallan who was tried in open company last time and found only tough handicapper Garde La Victoire too good. We then get into the rest of the Mullins batallions such as Shaneshill, Nichols Canyon, Alvision Ville etc etc and at the moment it really is a question of where these will run. Qewy was impressive when beating subsequent easy winner Cardianl Walter at Newbury but was in receipt of 6lbs from the Henderson horse, who is also entered in the Supreme. Looking outside the top few in the betting, I quite like the look of the Warren Greatrex runner Seedling, who is available at 20/1. The move from Charlie Egerton's yard seems to have worked wonders for this son of 2000 GNS winner Cockney Rebel, who was seen coming up the hill to great effect in a muddling race last December, mowing down long-time leader Some Plan with a withering charge. The handicapper has given him a mark of 149 for that effort and he looks the type to do well in the festival opener.
I know it's not very original but I just can't see past Douvan for this, and I'm expecting to see some tempting prices for him on Tuesday morning. Lami Serge's form is very average in comparison. He's been flat out to beat some poor opposition. Douvans form especially his 12 Length win over Sizing John is very strong form. And all his starts have been what I'd call impressive, Lami Serge on the others hand has looked very workmanlike. JollyAlan is a plodder who's likely future will be in handicaps. He won't be making his mark in any G1s. I know he's still a novice, but if your getting beat in 4 runner handicaps off 149 then your not going to do much at the top table. I think the McCoy/McManus loving, is the reason for this one being a single figure price. It really does look a poor renewal of the supreme, but the favourite does look to have some very exceptional form, so im predicting a very impressive win for him.
I'm sorry I'm not gonna join in the Mullins love in, I'll pobably end up in the poor house. this good thing Douvan, what's it beat. for me it's Parlour games, well bred group 1 form course form and my kind of price
shaken up and cruised clear run in eased flat clear approaching last, comfortably Please show me where LAMI SERGE has been workmanlike..........coz I cant see it!
Oh and KILCOOLEY won the National Spirit and VIOLETS DANCER won the Betfair Hurdle.........just in case you haven't got a handle on the form of that "they are not trees"!
Douvan's definitely priced up on hype and out of Willie's 4 good things on the first day he's easily the weakest by a mile to me. IF he's what they say he is though he will win easy as he hasn't got much to beat in it in all honesty. However it would be some caning for the bookies if the 4 did manage to win, they'd been taken out by the ****ing roots if it did happen! It'd be a bloodbath for them with the accas racking up everywhere!!!
Sorry Reebs I didn't realise, all these multiple entries. stick was that aimed at me ,if so I'm only giving my opinion sorry. Palour games form looks good to me in whichever race he runs in
No mate, its a shot across Shergars bows as he obviously hasn't watched any UK racing this winter mate ;-) PARLOUR GAMES has cost me a few times when beating horses I have fancied strongly!
Isn't this the race where there's always a kamikaze plunge on the favourite, and it always gets beat? Well, nearly always.
I just feel Douvan has looked more impressive on the eye than Lami Serge Stick. Lami Serge has needed to be shaken up a lot more. Douvan has looked to have a lot more in the tank and has beaten better horses. Sizing John went on to win a G1 after getting beat by Douvan, by 12 lengths very easily
That's right Archers normally the previous years bumper winner and all the Irish go home having done their dough, race one day one
I heard willies ma has backed douvan, that will do for me! Im going to avail of pp offer and back the serge in this one.ive fallen into the trap and done a small mullins multiple for the crack And I reckon the winner will come from these two buckos
Shergs there are better betting opertunities during the week so you would have to mad or a rich bastard to go steaming into this race!
The Oirish will have a weeks gambling money when they arrive nae bother having plundered the poor Stratford bookies ;-)
Im starting to really like Shaneshill for this, had never considered him for the race as he was fav for the Neptune but this looks the right race for him. Lami Serge looks the class horse in the race and the only one with potential to be a Champion Hurdle horse. Im not wearing the Gowran form of Douvan, he beat slow horses last time and you want locking up taking anything under 7/2, hes obviously a classy horse but both these two look the type of bridle horses that usually get beat in this race. I backed Jollyallan at 25/1 as the price just stood out to me at the time but while I think he is a solid contender im not totally convinced he has the class. The previous years bumper has supplied 3 of the last 4 winners of this and Shaneshill seems to have the right type of style, he travels well but he also finds plenty off the bridle and I think he just got outstayed last time. Whether he has the class of the top two I dont know but I dont think hes far off and were he able to sit handy and go a length or so up at the business end, im not sure id fancy Lami Serge or Douvan to outbattle him up the hill if they have to come off the bridle to get to him. He looks the call now at 12/1 to me.
