2014-15 Season Progress

So you dont know but you know? Ok

Astro you tie yourself in knots mate. You predict that on your "post crisis" form you'll get 71 pts. But if you drop 11 points you wont manage that. And on top of that your tables are predicting something else. You have so many stats you havent a clue what you're talking about.

 

Make a bet with him Treble All I know is that we're the inform team in the league and going from strength to strength, with players now looking settled and our top striker back. Who knows where we'll end up but there's two places up for grabs and we still have to play both you and Arsenal. Whatever you think we should be nowhere near top four considering our awful start but the pure fact we are states more than any stat ever can.

 

No, he's saying we are on course for 71 points. But if we dropped 11 points we'd be on 70 points, and he's saying that's still enough to be above Man Utd. I'm not even involved in the discussion and the point he's making is pretty simple.

 

I wouldnt know what to bet him on, he's made like a million different predictions
I agree with a lot of what you say and I disagree that you should be nowhere near the top 4 or that you wont make top 4. I think anyone who writes you off now is wrong. I just dont believe in the stuff Astro spouts to deal in absolutes. He is just as wrong in writing us off also. Assuming arsenal will make it, it's definitely between United and Livpl now.

 

Except he keeps changing it everytime he's challenged on anything he says. He cant defend a single thing lol so comes up with another irrational statement.

 

Look I'm sorry but I have said something earlier

26 points = 8 wins, 2 draws, 2 losses

Let's just be clear lfC have 8 games below the top 4 and 4 against the current top 4.

The bread and butter games is where the top 4 race will be won and lost. We are currently ahead of where I thought we could be

70 points requires us to win every game outside of the top 4, including swansea away as one example

70 points is possible

However for utd and arsenal the message is exactly the same they need to win 7/8 out of 12 too

We will see who does what

 

That's a fair assessment MITO. Though I will concede that may be a tougher task for us than you the we're playing. But I still think it's too tight to call and form can change.

 

It only takes an injury or build up of games like what happens to arsenal every march

these are our games


Manchester City H
Burnley H
Swansea City A
Manchester United H
Arsenal A
Newcastle United H
Hull City A
West Bromwich Albion A
Queens Park Rangers H
Chelsea A
Crystal Palace H
Stoke City A

For me LFC need to win all games in bold. I can see us certainly winning 6 or 7 of those. burnely are decent now, workers, swansea away is tough like i told everyone on prediction thread this week... but newkie never play well at anfield. Hull will try to draw v us and that might be a bad idea. West brom are doing well right now but are still weak. QPR are screwed. Palace by that time will be safe and stoke are stoke. end of season game with nothing o nit for them

All tough and need us to do all our stuff and show our quality....


The two games in red are now 6 pointers as Astro has termed it.

I think Utd at anfield is the one what will be really really huge. I think if we beat utd we've a big chance now of 4th. even with cu distractions

 

incidentally LFC are 8 points worse off than last year at this time.

we won the next 9 to turn a 4th place run into a title tilt.....

interesting no? only 8 points.. if we had those we'd be 4 off city and 9 off cheslea. Everyone this year has less points outside of the top place where cheslea really have tracked towards that 85-90 point mark..

I think the record of 5 away clean sheets 9best since 1985) was a surprise to me so there you go things can indeed change. who knows how it will change but the next game for us is city so these 3 points were very very welcome for me. Really didn't see us doing this midweek.

 

A win against City would be dreamland, though with the traveling i think it'll be a tough ask.

 

So long as we don't drop more than 1 point I'll be happy #notgreedy

 

Well I'm grateful for a big unexpected win today

The ref did us a big favour first half imo so let's not get cocky

 

as a quick update:

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The grey line is our progess last year.

note if you will we were always on for 70 points all the way through last year. This yea rour form is creeping us up towards that 4th place trophy line.

8 point difference over 26 games... last year it was about now we pushed the accelerator on an amazing run of form..... our form this year started in december.

 

All of this analysis is in isolation. It's the same mistake of just looking at Liverpool - their run, their form, their fixtures without considering the fact that the others won't just sit still. At the end of the day the top 4 is still in every team's hands. By next weekend it could be out of yours. The games against United and Arsenal will be important but only IF you leap frog either as a result. If not with 8 games still to go why should United and Arsenal's fixtures and form be ignored. For those reasons it's going to be a lot tighter than looking at a few stats and graphs quite honestly.

 

But we do t care, it's just something to do

I'm sure said point you've nade has been made about 50 times by everyone on this thread

How and ever the 70 points for 4th seems to work most years just like 40 for the survivors

 

I haven't ignored other teams. I have specifically looked at Man Utd's fixtures and identified they will collapse in March and April. In fact my #prediction of them getting less than 70 points even assumed they would beat Swansea so they're further behind schedule than I expected

 

Whether you care or not isn't what I'm getting at. The point you've made has also been suggested enough times - with various graphs and stats littered on this thread. You can look at it in simple terms if you want, particularly the 70 points, but the difference between 4th and 5th (heck even 4th and 6th) could be as tight as 71-70. This season certainly doesn't seem to be like many before in the race for top 4 with the teams in contention. If you were discussing Spurs/Everton/Arsenal then I could understand. With United/Liverpool/Southampton it's not the same.

 

Hmm, so we are deffinately going to drop more than 13 points. How many are Spurs, Arsenal, Southampton, Chelsea and City going to drop? i have a plan to make much money at the bookies

 

Yep.

 

But you are making assumptions on the way teams will continue to play (including your own), some of the lower teams could hit good form, some of the higher teams could collapse. With 12 games to go i would never make any prediction on top 4 with things so tight. Injury and suspension can change the outlook in a second