I do lucky 15s all the time but not sure how your plan works ie do you deliberately pick 3 rank outsiders to get the one winner which is a risky punt.
I don't expect you to belieive me in what I have told you Sugar, i don' t seek approval from random boring ****s on the internet. You have absolutely no Idea about my Industry or the wage structures involved. I could quite easily upload a copy of my Gaming license or pay slips from my employers but that is not how I operate . I have succeeded in getting right under your skin & that was my only motivation. The fact that you have spent hours trying to prove yourself to be the Gambler that bookies fear is priceless & you are frantically trying to show you have won an argument on GC. I can't stand you because you are a plastic Man U fan grass that attempted to bring the wrath of Mopey scouse fans for your own amusement. You sir are a **** of massive proportions. Do keep posting though watching you make yourself look even more ridiculous is quite amusing for the rest of us.
Get the Betfair App on your phone, only pick horses which are close to the Betfair price. Check the terms and conditions of the Lucky 15 offer - most firms offer 2x odds one winner (which is still profitable), 3x odds is a gold mine. Any 20% bonus on top etc, is an extra. Best Odds Guaranteed is also a bonus in your favour. (don't bet each way - you lose value in the place as it's only the win part that is bonused) So 2.30 Wolves today sensor is 3.7 to lay On Betway.com it's 3.75 You perm up 4 horses that are around Betfair price like this example (they don't have to be bigger than lay price, even taking 3.6 in this example would still be profitable after bonuses are added in). Over a big enough sample there's no to very little margin on these horses for a bookie if you're taking close to Betfair price - by the time they factor in the bonuses you're making money. Ideally you want to back horses which are bigger than 3/1, as the bigger the price the more margin you will make (as bonus is multiplied by it) - although with bigger prices you have to wait longer for a winner, or two.
There's no doubt if you can find horses that are shorter on Betfair than they are with the bookies then you're consistently getting value, so over the long term you should come out in front. Not sure how that'd work out with Lucky 15s though, because every time you get one winner then you still have 14 losing bets, bonus or no bonus. Over the time you showed a profit with this system, how many times did you get 2, 3, or even 4 winners up? Because you would only need one winning L15 to account for your £9k profit. A Lucky 15, while much better value than the lottery for example, is still a bookie's bet. They why they throw bonuses at them. Even with 3 winners out of 4 runners, there are still 8 losing bets.
It's not about how many losing bets, it's about simple mathematics. So ignore horses, and let's say there are four coin tosses in your Lucky 15 - it will work out 2.0 x 2.0 x 2.0 x 2.0 which will work out 16.0 (15/1) to get all four winners - you will win all four selections once every 15 tries (on average). So, even if bookies offer 1.95 x 1.95 x 1.95 x 1.95 for a coin toss, I will get paid out at 14.45 (13.5/1), but with 20% bonus on top I actually get paid out 17.15 (16.15/1) once every 15 tries I will get paid out 16 times my stake. Just by adding 20% bonus I am beating their overround. I just have to place enough bets and I will come out on top. By the time you add 3x odds one winner in there, plus Best Odds Guaranteed for racing, you end up with a stupid margin on your side. The bookies offer these bets because they don't expect you to take 1.95 for a coin toss, they expect a mug punter in the shop to take 1.8 - which ends up with lots of margin on their side. So that's why it's important to use the likes of Betfair to find the real price of the horse and use it as a guide.
It's always about mathematics. But calculating the odds and margins on multiples is never simple. If you can consistently identify value in singles (and e/w singles are often cracking value on the place part of the bet btw) then in theory you will come out on top. Not convinced the same principles really apply with Patents, L15s etc. As I say, bookies love multiples because they so rarely come up, and the number of losing bets when you get 3 horses out of 4 negate any value you get on the winners.
I'm a bookie and I'm telling you these are good bets if you take top prices Bookies love multiples because overround multiplied by overround is more profitable. As a bookie if I'm making a 4% profit margin and it's multiplied by another 4% profit margin then in effect it becomes a 16% profit margin. The exact same logic applies to punters though, if I'm nicking a 3% profit margin on some wrong odds and I double it up nicking another 3% profit margin from another selection then the double makes 9% margin. And you keep ignoring the effect of the bonuses, the 3x odds one winner, 20% on all winners, and the Best Odds Guaranteed, which is precisely why these are great bets.
