My best My best guess, though it is a stab in the dark, is that Fulham, even Rotherham and possibly Brighton will have nothing to play for when we get to it. My fear is actually the Brighton game for our form v ex-managers!
Ok so you're going to insist on being a twat about me disagreeing. I didn't say some defeats don't matter. Let's leave it at that before I drown you in drivel. It must be the pretzels
Let's just say there's a very good reason why you can still get 16-1 on Norwich winning the league. Not impossible, but very unlikely. Once in 16 attempts sounds about right to me, such is the difficulty of finishing with a run we'd need to take the title. Let's hope it is that one in 16 season. As I say, we'll know more next week. If we lose at Watford its almost out of the question. Lose at Blackburn and it is. Win both and we're right bang in the mix. We won't be 16-1 then! But at this stage its fair.
So you don't think 16-1 sounds right, given the state of the league? What would be right? You seem to think we should be favourites (or near as damn it) at this point!
Not only the teams we play though, Rob, for the other 5 teams as well there's bound to be some bonus and very welcome shocks ahead!
At this stage of the season, I'd be happy with a play off place and think that there is a very good chance that will be achieved now that AN has got the team playing in a cohesive unit, and we can see that the players are playing in position and to their strengths, if we stay injury free, there are some great impact players to come on and make a difference. Jerome to come on and score the winner against Ipswich in the 87th minute in the final
It's a tired old maxim, but it's nevertheless true - betting odds are not representative of chances. They represent the front runner in the betting world. If you were to press me for opening odds, I would say our chances are about 4-1 (and before you ask, yes I have taken those odds, absolutely). So yes, I agree unlikely, we're not favourites and definitely odds-off, but nowhere near as exaggerated as you're suggesting. I've already said I think about 84 points will do it. So that means we can do it with ten wins, one draw and four defeats, so long as those defeats or draw aren't against Derby/Middlesbrough (because that pushes the total needed above 84 as I see those teams as the pace setters). Doesn't really matter where the other wins come from, but obviously the more defeats we get, the harder it becomes to match the number of victories needed with the remaining games. I'm repeating myself now, I know, but to paraphrase you, I just don't think you get my point. We are in a better position now than just about any time this season - even when top of the league in October (we were playing sloppy football but winning under Adams).
Rob, I think you've got several things wrong. The leaders being on a record low earlier in the season is irrelevant. In fact, given that they are not now on a record low, it only serves to show that form at the top is improving and actually counts against your argument. The top three teams will, by maintaining their season's form, finish on 90, 89, 88 so I can't see why you would expect to win it with 84? Also, the position of the top team in previous years is not useful in assessing automatic promotion chances because it's the second place that counts. 59 points from 31 games may be below average for the top team at this point but my guess is that having the 2nd team on 59 points after 30 is above average, and we've got a third team on 58. Clearly the prediction isn't scientific but I cannot see why it looks so wrong.
Because, as I said earlier, points accrual is not linear. Tight at the top usually means a lower overall total. Everyone can't score maximum points. That the top six are still so close this late in the season suggests that there will be a record low winning level (and, by extension, as you say a record low autos position, but we weren't discussing that on this thread). To be fair, my odds on 4-1 are probably too good. I'd say that's our odds for automatic promotion bare minimum though. So long as we get c. 4-6 points from Derby and Middlesbrough, we'll have no excuse for not getting autos.
For example, last season at this rough stage, Leicester lead with 68 points and 18 points separated Leicester and sixth place. Season before, Cardiff were on 64 and fourteen points clear of sixth. Season before that, which is almost exactly the same as ours (though a couple of points ahead) Reading came from being six points behind West Ham to win the league by a point, though they and Southampton really stormed the close of season.
The exception that proves the rule! Our promotion season you only needed 81 points to finish second (we had 84). I'd be surprised if it needs 84 this year. As I said, at lot of things point to a record low.
I took a simpler approach to this which was that each of the top 6 teams is capable of averaging 2 points per match for the rest of the season as a basis for comparison. That would give Boro 91, Derby 90, Bournemouth 89, Ipswich 87, Watford 86 and City 83. I'm not suggesting that's what will happen, but it does suggest how much deviation there would have to be in all 5 teams above us, and ourselves, in order to achieve automatic promotion. City have the advantage of playing 3 of those teams at home and only Watford away. Should we manage to beat Watford, that advantage would increase as would our chances, but we would need to win all 3 of the other 6 pointers to stand any real chance of automatic promotion. That's a big ask, but not impossible and I'd say the same about our chances of automatic promotion. I do think that we are now very capable of gaining a play-off place, but automatic promotion is still only an 'outside chance', IMO.
Oi, check your post - you mentioned that the autos! The prediction doesn't require everyone to be taking maximum points. it just requires them to be doing roughly the same thing that has shaped the table so far which, in the absence of a crystal ball, seems perfectly reasonable to me.
"Win all 3 of the other 6 pointers" Exactly. But something we are also more than capable of if it goes right. I don't want to tempt fate, but I think Watford are our perfect opponents right now. Fragile at the back, playing open expansive football, struggling against the better sides... we'll probably now get thrashed and finish 20 points off autos after my "drivel" on here!
I'd be surprised if we don't finish in the play-off places and my guess would be 4th or 5th. I'd be amazed if we finish in the autos and at least one of the teams above us would have to go on a pretty horrendous run for that to happen (and we'd have to continue accruing points at our present rate or better!!), but you never know!!!!
That's pretty much the way I see it, JR, unless Neil turns out to be a very special manager indeed. We're fortunate to have a large squad with players on their way back from injury as well. Consistency will be the key, though. That and winning all the 6 pointers.
Don't get me wrong, I see where you're coming from, I really do. And I've already said that I think it is not likely that we'll even get autos, I'm just saying I think it's much more likely than others do. Avid I've put my money where my mouth is and bet on us to win (albeit not much... ) But the key, for me, is "and winning all the 6 pointers". If we do that and fail to get promoted I will spend an evening with JWM discussing Ipswich tactics. And I'll pay for his three shandy. Honestly. We won't even need one team to have a particularly bad run (though I don't doubt one will). The other matches we're (especially under Neil) clearly capable of pulling together 2-2.5 points per game. So it's really just the six pointers that matter IMO.
For us to get into the top two, we'd need several teams above us to lose almost half their remaining fixtures. It won't happen. Get ready for the play-offs.
