The vision (or ramblings) of a on-eyed simpleton ? All 20 teams have 13 games remaining. It's as tight as a nun's nasty at both ends of the table. 5 points separate 3rd to 7th, with 5 points also separating 12th to 18th. Every one of those teams have something to fight for (Europe or safety). That's not to say the top 2 and the bottom 2 teams have nothing to fight for. Only the supporters of 4 teams, barring total disaster, can look forward to a humdrum end to the season. Let's look at the bottom 9 teams (the sub-division most pertinent to us), and inspect the distribution of their remaining 13 fixtures:- ........................................13 Remaining Games against.. ................Current..........Top 7 ......Botm..9.......(8th-11th) ................pts....GD........H...A.........H....A.........H....A Everton.......27......-4........3....1..........3.....2..........1.....3 Palace..........27......-8.......3....3..........3.....1..........1.....2 WBA...........26......-10......3....3..........2.....3..........1.....1 Sund'l'd.......24......-14......1.....3.........4.....2..........1.....2 Hull City.....23......-11.......4....2..........3.....2.........0.....2 QPR............22......-17.......3....2..........1.....5.........2.....0 Villa.............22.....-22......0....4..........4.....1.........3......1 Burnley.......21......-19......3.....3..........1.....3.........2......1 Leicester......17.....-18......2.....2..........2....4.........3.....0 General Rules for results for the above 9 bottom teams: 1. They WIN ALL their HOME games against ALL the other bottom 9 teams. 2. They LOSE ALL their AWAY games to TOP 7 teams & 8th-11th place teams. 3. In chronological order of fixture date -They LOSE their first 2 HOME games against TOP 7 teams, DRAW their 3rd game and win the rest (if they have any). 4. In chronological order of fixture date - They LOSE their 1st HOME game, DRAW their 2nd & WIN the rest of their games (if any) against 8th-11th placed teams. 5. A win gets +1 and a loss gets -1 in goal difference. Are HULL CITY SAFE ? This is how the remaining fixtures pan out given the above simplistic rules:- ...................FINAL...POSITIONS ...................pts....GD.......W...D....L Villa............38.....-24........5....1....7 Everton......37......-8.........3....1....9 Palace.........37......-14.......3....1....9 Hull City..36....-15....4....1....8 Sund'l'nd....36......-19.......4....0. ..9 WBA..........33.......-18......2....1....10 --------------------------------------------- Leicester....28......-23.......3....2.....8 QPR...........27......-26.......1.....2....10 Burnley......25......-28......1.....1.....10 Naturally....anything can happen in football !!! .....It just did in my mind
Burnley to get 4 more points and QPR get 5 more points for the rest of the season? I truly hope so but I seriously doubt it....
I believe if we beat Burnley QPR and Leicester that would make it hard for any of them to overtake us - however we've played these teams once each and have won 1 lost 2....
QPR (H), Burnley (H) & Leicester (A). My rules, win all home games & lose all games against these also-rans - 6 points for us. Sounds easy no ?
Burnley have got BY FAR the hardest run-in. All QPRs easier games are away from home. If we beat QPR and stop Leicester from beating us, I think we've nailed it.
If we play like we can then we can pick up points in a few home games & not just the ones against the weaker teams. IF!
Spot on. Burnley play 9 against top 11 teams, and 3 of their 4 games against the bottom 9 teams are away from home. Qpr play 5 out of 6 against relegation rivals away. Both doomed imo.
Yep...I've got 'em picking up 4 points against top 11 teams at home (based on my purely arbitrary rules that the more big boys you play at home, the more chance you have of getting those points.
please log in to view this image The numbers in brackets are the current league positions, so theoretically the lower the total, the harder the run-in.
Agreed, but it doesn't truly reflect the H or A factor, which also theoretically has an impact, especially against lower placed teams if playing away.
I thought the degree of sadness I was exhibiting by producing that would have been one step too far by including a Home/Away factor!!!
I think you need to add in a table that says how those 9 teams have fared so far against teams in the top 7, 8-11th and 12-20th.
As I said in the O/P..."The musings of a one-eyed simpleton". Be my guest. City would get 24 pts if previous results were reversed is all I know.
