Cheltenham Ante Post 2015

What will happen to his odds when he isn't in the first two Beefy?

 

Lol I did begin with 'If' stick! No doubt Ptit Zig or Balder Succes to beat the Irish horse is your prediction?!

And to answer your question they'll go the same way as plenty of my other ante post bets! Waste paper like most of my ante posts lol

I couldn't tip a wheelbarrow, you should know that by now! I bow to your and others superior knowledge

 

The race could not be more tailor made for BALDER SUCCES if you set out to do it and I think PTIT ZIG will chase him home. As I don't have an interest in it though I wish your boy well.

 

Probably wont be having a bet in it either. I'd be very disappointed if Ballycasey didn't beat Ptit Zig in it though. His form looks to be unravelling quite badly to my eyes but then again Ballycasey's last run was horrendous so questions over them both.

Suppose the only reason I flagged him up was he's one of the few horses in the Festival lists who COULD shorten up between now and off time. Of course, as you imply, could work the other way! We shall see I guess on Saturday

 

Ptit Zig has done everything well Oddy, I just think he has the profile of a horse that could easily bump into one at the Festival. Having said that, he could easily look a much more solid fav if he beats his elders tomorrow. Lovely horse but still only a youngster too. I could see him ending up at 3m in time.

I see Beefys angle on Ballycasey. The right sort of trip for him and even if he ends up running on well for a place, he is still live Ryanair material because there is no banker in that this year. Cue Card has it all to prove again, Don Cossack looks all class but has yet to get far enough to see the Cheltenham hill- it will be interesting to see how that pans out.

Balder Succes being upped in trip might be the making of him- looked much more comfortable with his jumping over the longer trip at Kempton and didn't seem to lack stamina. All in all a real good race with some good mix of formlines with the novice in there too. Good race given we are only a month out from Cheltenham.

 

I do rate Ptit Zig but I can’t get away from Balder Succes and think that he has everything going for him of the morrow to bring the bounty back to the county.

He excels in field sizes of 8 or less. For some reason, be it crowding, the hussle and bussle, intimidation or whatever his form in larger fields is drastically poorer (you could even go as far as saying it’s horrifically bad) and for that reason I couldn’t have in the Ryanair (unless, of course it cut up very badly). Balder Succes’ form after his debut win in this country in fields of 8 or less reads -113131F151113221 however in fields of 9 or more it reads –FU08U5544.

Plus he’s won 2 out of 3 at Ascot and his formline over the big ‘uns at 19.5 furlongs+ is -111.

Balder Succes seems to have all the stars clustered together for a big show this weekend.

 

I suppose you've kind of answered your own question with your appraisal of Josses Hill. I also just think the way Gitane du Berlais hacked up suggests the English novices might not be vintage. With regards tomorrow, like I've already said I mightn't even have a bet but I'd prefer Balder Succes over Ptit Zig as a danger to Ballycasey, who I'm not saying will win, but he's probably overpriced for it. At the prices PZ is 2s, his form ties in with Josses Hill & Champagne West. Ballycasey is 4s, his form ties in with Don Cossack, Carlingford Lough etc. I know which I much prefer.

As for your comment that 'he can't be held accountable for the subsequent performances of those behind him', I found slightly baffling. I'm sure even your good self has done this with certain horses. I'll say no more on that.

With regards the JLT, if you're so sweet on PZ, I'd suggest taking the price now. You know the way the bookies like to cut prices, he'll likely be an even money shot should he win! Personally I feel him and Gilgamboa are of a similar standard, place material. I think Apache Stronghold is the one who could give my selection VAUTOUR most to worry about. But I think on nice spring ground, the hustle and bustle of a Festival race like a JLT will play very much to Vautour's strengths. Just like he showed in the Supreme last year I think he'll prove different class.

 

I like Ballycasey at the prices, I've never warmed to Balder Success for no real reason but I do really like Ptit Zig. Balleycaseys form figures over this trip read 11F1 of the top of my head and something that Paul Nicholls said is sticking in my mind about his horses now being given an easy time before the final festival push.
So although Ptit Zig is the youngster most open to improvement, I'm going to side with Ballycasey at the prices. I see Townend is riding Champagne Fever in the Red Mills, does this mean the master is coming over to ride?

 

I love Ballycasey and have him in the Ryanair so will be sticking with him on Saturday. He's was the best horse in last yeas RSA but stamina told in the end and he couldn't stay. The intermediate trip is perfect. This is a Mullins chaser so you've got to expect the odd bad jump and at the top table it could easily find him out but on raw ability, i'd take Ballycasey over almost every horse in this field.

 

I'm a huge fan of Ptit Zig and have been really taken by all his runs over the bigger obstacles so far, especially the way he seems to power away after the final fence. He looks a real stayer to my eyes and i'm sure he will be in the Gold Cup in the next year or two. I am already on for the JLT and i'll be at Ascot tomorrow to watch him hopefully do the business. I see Ballycasey as a bigger danger than Balder Succes but i think Ptit will win this by 3/4 lengths going away.

 

Love Ptit Zig, and think him and Vautour could put on a classic in the JLT, both can jump and travel, and a battle up the hill could well be on the cards. Backed Ballycasey for the RSA last year, and was counting my money coming down the hill but he just emptied very quickly. Can't fathom out why they've messed about with the trip with him so much, so blatantly obvious he is an out and out 2 and half/5f horse, maybe they were trying to get runs into him, I dunno......

 

The race is as stick said is perfectly set up for Balders! I won't be deserting him if Mullins ha picked champagne fever to run tomorrow I would be on him but can't be having balleycasey tomorrow he needs further IMO and with 5 in the field tomororw the ground will be good I expect a good fast pace which everything is in his favour IMO it is an insult that Ptit zig is fav tomorrow his form is as crap as any , the horses he has beaten have done nothing yes u can only beat what is infront on u but it holds no strength what so ever put that against the form of the other two it's a joke he's that short plus the first time out of novice company he won't get away with many if any mistakes all about Baldrt for me tomorrow

 

Ballycasey lol

No chance in the Ryanair based on that today. Lovely form boost at Gowran for my Gold Cup 'not so dark horse now' Djakadam. The 6th from the Thyestes hacked up, I'll take it as one anyway lol

 

Take some 10/1 on Salsify in the Foxhunters

 

Toon River ran well for a long way in the Theystes as he loves the track but dont think he stays, back to 2m4 today and the horses he beat off 126 im not sure its much of boost for chances of winning a Gold Cup lol

Djakadam is a nice horse but lets be honest, he outclassed munster national types in the Thyestes, he is better than what he showed in the Hennessy and while id be dumbfounded if he was to win the Gold Cup, you couldnt explain it with the Thyestes form. Any Gold Cup hope rests on his potential, not his form.

 

Spot on I was (with Ptit Zig anyway,sorry don't usually like to blow my on trumpet)

 

Not a race I'd normally be to keen to get involved in but I am very keen on moonracer for the bumper.This lad hosed up at chelts in October scoring easily by 12 lenghts.Also beat some decent types in the Goffs bumper at Fairyhouse last year.Formally with Mr Mullins this lad has been put away by David Pipe for the big un next month.I cant see him being out of the top three, best price now 12s

 

That bumper is shaping up to be a belter.