LAY - I’m looking at Peace And Co at the moment, I just don’t fancy him, looks too free and my gut stays he won't get home. I was rather taken with Alan King’s Pain Au Chocolat the other day, the Triumph Hurdle is hardly ever won by flashy types (Our Conor is the only one in recent times), its won by stayers who jump and battle and I think Pain Au Chocolat fits the bill and the 20/1 is available. BANKER - I can’t see FAUGHEEN getting beaten, too much raw speed for The New One who will get caught napping and lose his place before staying on for 2nd or 3rd. Jezki will be better than he’s been so far this season but I think the first time hood did the trick last March. The Fly can’t win, not quick enough, needs to start raining now. DARK HORSE - I'm very keen on VALSEUR LIDO for the RSA, 10/1 at the moment (is that a dark horse ?) as may run in the JLT but I think (or is that hope) he’s RSA bound. He travels and jumps like a class animal and if he wins the Flogas grade 1 chase (2m 5f) on Sunday at Leopardstown, he could be favourite as it’s the best trial for the RSA. Got a few worries about his counterparts in the race, I think Don Poli will run in the 4m, Kings Palace’s forcing style won’t suit the RSA and ran poorly at Fest last season (this season mirroring it again), Coneygree won the Feltham but winners have that race have an awful record in the RSA. Champagne West can’t jump. I like The Young Master and think Barry Geraghty may ride, should go well but I rather like Valseur Lido.
lay - Silviniaco Conti - Cheltenham Gold Cup banker - Un De Sceaux - Arkle dark horse - Ballycasey - Ryanair
There is a very, very strong school of thought supporting this view. Must say that I’m not a fully paid up member of this club but do have to admit that from approaching the last to the winning line, last time out, Peace and Co did not pull anything like as clear of Karezak as you would have expected him too. Anyway my answers, at this precise moment, would be: LAY – Annie Power, Mares Hurdle. To my eye quotes, as short as 4/5, are miles too short, with a full 35 days to go, as she hasn’t run for 9 months, her participation is still in some doubt and you can guarantee that if she is fit but injury or illness rules out her stablemates, in other races, then she won’t be going anywhere near this contest. BANKER – Sprinter Sacre, Champion Chase. The best NH horse of my generation still, I think, has enough in his locker to claim victory here. His comeback run was highly satisfactory and you can guarantee that he will be brought to peak on the big day by Mr Henderson’s brilliance and ‘magic hands’. Don’t like the word ‘banker’ but the ‘Black Aeroplane’ is my idea of the most likeliest winner at the Festival. DARK HORSE – Trustan Times, Pertemps Final. Spoke yesterday on another thread how eyecatching I thought his run was on Sunday as he just managed to qualify for the Final of the Pertemps series. Was beaten just half a length in this race last year and a reproduction of that effort should put him bang in contention off a perch that is likely to be slightly lower than in ’14 (ran off 145 2 days ago and he should have this dropped 2-3 pounds). There are usually more plots than in an Agatha Christie novel in this race but I think this one may be plot of all plots. Is another who will be trained to ‘peak’ at the Festival.
Lay - Faugheen. I just don't think he'll do it. Really not sure why but just a gut feeling. Banker - Saphir de reu in the World Hurdle. Dark horse - Silver concorde in the Supreme. Even if they don't win previous bumper winners have a habbit of getting in the frame so 16s is interesting.
Lay: Peace & Co (Triumph Hurdle) - 2/1 is just wrong, wrong, wrong. Whatever the horses attributes, that price is an insult to the intelligence and I would be happy to lay 2s all day long. Banker: Sprinter Sacre, don't be fooled by the fact that he blew up in the home straight at Ascot, he was still spectacular and the fact he got so close to Dodging Bullets under such a tender ride speaks volumes. He will come on a ton for that. Dark Horse: I think Carlingford Lough will put up a really good showing in the Hennessy this Sunday and fancy him to go really well in the Cheltenham Gold Cup.
Lay-silvi conti.just keeps finding one or two more ahead at the course and I cant see it any differant come march. Banker-has to be faugheen. Dark horse-like Dan I think silver concorde is a corking ew bet in the first.has course form and will appreciate the better ground
Lay- The New One. The crucial downhill run between 3 out and 2 out will be where the class tells and history repeats. Outpaced and outclassed. He simply cannot and will not win a Champion Hurdle whilst it's run as a 2m race. Period. He's clearly a very good horse but he blatantly needs stepped up in trip and against true 2 milers he's always going to be banging his head against a brick wall. World Hurdle next year. Banker- My 2 bankers run on Day 1 but regular readers can probably guess these 2 so I'm going for one at a working man's price. Road to Riches is the most progressive horse in the field against a favourite who simply must be taken on here. He decisively won the best trial, against Gold Cup horses and should improve on decent ground with a nice bit of cover in a strongly run race. I think he's good enough in a Gold Cup which I'd summarize the rest as being much of a muchness... Dark horse- Djakadam was very close to being my selection for this but I feel he's next year's horse and his price has gone since the Thyestes. I also didn't want 2 tips in the one race! Therefore Thunder and Roses 25/1 in the National Chase is my dark horse. Done all his running on soft/heavy, this Presenting gelding could well relish a better surface, has stamina in spades and he could well surprise a few in this.
Lay: Douvan: Cant help but feel this years 2m novice hurdlers aren't world beaters, the horses at the front have been doing the job but i feel there will be something at a bigger price that will improve for better spring ground. Banker: Ptit Zig: Hardly a confident selection but its tough right now to sort out each race, i think Gilgamboa will be a serious threat over this trip and i reckon L'Vent Dantan and Rule the World both have squeeks aswell although the latter could perhaps go to the RSA. Dark Horse: Taquin Du Seuil: Had a lovely first run at 3 miles before a tame effort next time out and was found to not be right, at the same time the yard were having serious issues. Makes his comeback in the Denman chase on saturday and although may not be 100% should give a good account of himself.
Lay; DOUVAN as I really like Lami Serge and think the wrong horse is favourite. Banker; CUE CARD in the Ryanair as he is in my opinion simply the best 2 and 1/2 mile chaser there is. Dark Horse; CURRENT EVENT goes to the Festival with the most impressive set of form figures and a heck of a lot to like on his latest run. Slight worry about the inexperienced rider that's all.
Lay- Dynaste Just doesn't seem to have the same form as last year his last race at Cheltenham lto he was beaten to easily and I think they have mucked around with him a litte too much and will have his hands full with the extremely strong field expected Banker- Un De Sceaux- just won't get beat and his fall first time was a fluke for the rest of the field Dark Horse- Shutthefrontdoor - Has all the same credentials as Synchronised - will definately stay , seems to be a National horse but just gallops and gallops all day, his jumping is good too, has a great record fresh and won't mind the spring ground and could cause a few suprises
LAY: Douvan Supreme Novices. 2/1 do me a fooking favour. Has only had 4 trips to the track, has never had more than 7 rivals and only run on soft or worse ground. You need to go back to 1991 to find a supreme winner with less racecourse experience. There will be 2 huge roars on that first day, the usual one when the tapes go up on the first race and then another 5 minutes later from the bookies as they clean up on the jolly. BANKER: A struggle this one as I think it's a very open festival this year and I have doubts about a lot of the 'Certs'. I have noted though that the lovely Rebecca has Teaforthree in the Foxhunters and is planning to run in this enroute to another crack at the Grand National. The highest rated horse in the race by a decent margin and 9/2 looks almost as tasty as the delicious trainer. DARK HORSE: Perfect Candidate. Fergal O'Brien's charge is 40s for the 4 miler and will carry some of my each way cash.
Lay: DOUVAN - I agree with Stick, I'm a big L'ami Serge fan and there could also be some dark horses at bigger prices so would be laying at 2/1 all day long Banker: Mullins Day 1 Treble - Un De Sceaux, Faugheen & Annie Power, hopefully will get evens, 6/4 and evens on the day which will pay 9/1 (hopefully someone will enhance the treble on the day to 10/1) really can't see any getting beat Dark Horse: Ned Stark - Jumps well & at 16's for the novices handicap I would be more than happy
After his win on Saturday Ned Stark is now ineligible for the novices handicap race as it’s a 0-140 event and he’s gone up 6 lbs to 143. Is now apparently being aimed at the ‘open’ 3 mile handicap chase on the first day. Talking of ratings am a bit disheartened to see that Trustan Times’ hurdle perch remains 145. Thought the handicapper would have relented and dropped him a couple of pounds at least after Sunday.
At lea At least my lay selection was right that's at least one out of 3 but in all serious big shame he is out for the season!
Lay - Silviniaco Conti -Gold Cup Banker - Lieutenant Colonel World Hurdle Dark Horse - Identity Thief
