Very true. This time last year we were backing Vautour around 10s and Faugheen was around 11/2 There WERE value antepost prices, god knows what Very Wood was around now. Some difference to Douvans price now, who is probably shorter than his 'on the day price' will be so pure madness backing him now if you missed the tasty numbers. In fairness though you could easily suggest Douvan has looked FAR more impressive than Vautour did at this stage. Remember Douvan scrapping home against Western Boy in the Moscow Flyer!! Ruby has spoken favorably about him compared to Vautour. I suppose you can see why their looking to duck him when you consider the lack of depth in the field, who knows. But to take 2/1 now, I'd seek help lol The other novice markets look no shorter than any other years to me. Arkle has a shortie but you could argue hes a 1-5 shot on the day.
No different to the rest of us. No matter what we think we know were wrong more often than right! Poster's comments in signatures are generally misquotes anyway lol
I listened to some very interesting comments from Robbie McNamara this week about Value At Risk and Silver Concorde. I didn't expect to hear it. The conversation was centred around Value at Risk and his Cheltenham chances. He said that when Value at Risk and Silver Concorde knuckled down to battle it out for 2nd and 3rd at Punchy, Silver Concorde showed more determination. Robbie said he doesn't think Silver Concorde has much to offer in that department and he quite easily outdid VAR that day for bottle. Just something to consider.
What does Gordon Elliott have entered in the Bumper? He's a machine in Irelandin that sphere and regularly beats Willie.
Jollyallan now has the best form in the Supreme and rated only 2 pounds behind Lami Serge on 151, with improvement to come on better ground and is still 14/1, was still 20/1 after last run but the market starting to realize Alivisio VIlle has no chance, probably wont run and should never have been in the betting. Only danger to Lami Serge in my opinion and still value, will go off single figures. Might be no value left on Mullins horses but there will still be plenty out there.
Alvisio Ville was 20/1 only this morning for the Neptune, 10/1 now. Was 20/1 value? Couldnt have been because theres none left.
Josses Hill needs to put in a more convincing round but judged on the last couple of jumps at Doncaster he is at least capable of jumping well. Today might not be as much of a stroll as the betting suggests, I backed him at 9/1 last week, single and double with Lami Serge 9/2 so hoping he wins but good round more important at this trip.
Bobster you'll see one of Gordon's best bumper horses in action today at Naas, Space Cadet. Up against a half decent yoke of Willie's. Could be a live one for March
Anyone know/90% confident about what race CHAMPAGNE FEVER will run in at the Festival this year? The CC is looking really winnable but will they go Ryanair?
The Arkle may look like a walk over at this stage but the RSA and JLT will more than make up for it. They look to be incredible races.
Stick, I had a quick scan over the exchanges and Champagne Fever had solidified into around the 7.8-8.0 mark with plenty of depth for Champion Chase which speaks volumes. I think he will- they must be looking at the horses 2m form at Cheltenham and really fancying their chances. Form is 112 and last year he led everywhere apart from the line. He ought to be a really solid chance if Sprinter doesn't perform. I can't have Sire De Grugy this time around (likeable though he is)- everything went right last season but his prep has been messed around and I'd have big doubts about him performing to last seasons level. The only thing to scupper that was if connections decided Un De Sceaux was to go for the Champion Chase, but Willie isn't reknown for that and the Arkle is a huge accolade in itself, so with that being winnable, he should head there one would think.
What are peoples thoughts on More Of That? He's an interesting horse to discuss. Staying hurdlers tend to repeat (Barracuda, Inglis Drever, Big Bucks) but with just one run this season- a disappointing one- he is frely available at 4/1 on the exchanges this year, when most would have been thinking Evens had he won on reappearance. I always fear Jonjo at the festival and I do feel his horses will come right. Have a look at the reappearance and see if you think he looks a bit fat here? http://www.sportinglife.com/racing/...istance-hurdle-grade-2/video?token=c72a07e360 He is a big horse but perhaps his run was purely a fitness issue here?
Jonjos weren't firing then and also More of that has had a wind op . I'd need to see him run again before steaming in . But I've backed him a few times from September until just after christmas
