Paddy Power sees it like this: Un De Sceaux 4/5 Gilgamboa 11/4 Clarcam 9/2 Apache Stronghold 10/1 Can't be having UDS at that price. I'd be for one of them fancy "Dutching" bets on Gilgamboa & Clarcam. Thoughts?
Will be a watch and learn race for me, still don't think Un De Sceaux will get up the hill at Cheltenham so could be some value on the day if he smashes these rivals
A not-so-fancy single bet on Apache Stronghold. A permanent in my tracker, he shouldn't be up to this, but how pissed would I be if he did - and I hadn't!
A really nice renewal this race, at the prices Clarcam look's the value at the moment. Gilgamboa is exciting but will need to improve to win this and he may well do so. If Un De Sceaux skips around safely he will prove difficult to beat though. Apache Stronghold definitely has a big race in him but will need a lot of things to fall right to prevail here.
Thank god for this, a proper humdinger of a contest, seems to me we've had seldom few this season... What we've got here is a real fancinating clash featuring the top 3 in the market from the Cheltenham Arkle (out of the likely runners) so safe to say whatever delivers here will be the rightful Arkle favourite come Sunday afternoon. UN DE SCEAUX hasn't beaten much yet. That's a fact. What's also a fact is he's blitzed everything he has met so far so he gives an aura, or a strong impression, to me anyway, that he COULD just be something a wee bit special. He fell on debut, slightly worryingly in that he was splendid isolation when he did (the camera man couldn't keep up lol). That could be because he's a dodgy jumper or that he simply made the much talked about 'novicey' mistake that we sometimes see. The best can and do fall, Moscow and Kauto did so too, so it would be harsh to ridicule him too much for that mishap on debut. He jumped well before that and in his subsequent rout. Perhaps he's too brave and it was interesting to hear Ruby say afterwards that he didn't know what to do when he did basically over jumped, as he hasn't made a mistake at all schooling. I actually think he's a good jumper, very fast and fluent, but perhaps his headstrong nature will be his Achilles heel. To be honest, I've yet to see any flawless novice jumper yet, and perhaps the fall taught him a valuable lesson. Time shall tell. But it would be churlish to write him off due to a debut fall in my view. The opposition are small but extremely select. CLARCAM slammed a G1 field at Christmas time but his main rival, Vautour, didn't run his race and beating Ted Veale 17l isn't perhaps superstar level, though Ted did run an eye catching race over hurdles on Sunday. The biggest danger to the jolly is GILGAMBOA who looked immense on St Stephen's Day at Limerick and his jumping looks super accomplished. Last season in the Supremes he was running a blinder until a huge blunder and I very much think he'd have been second in that race without it. He certainly brings a touch of class but can he keep tabs on the purest of 2m creatures that is UN DE SCEAUX.. APACHE STRONGHOLD is another animal with very decent hurdle form but I'm firmly of the view he's a 2m4 specialist and even in likely softish ground he'll be lacking a gear or two to go with them. To summarise I think UN DE SCEAUX's biggest dangers are the birch obstacles he must negotiate. The old adage 'if he jumps he wins' was made for him. We'll see at last what he's all about against this quality opposition. If he blitzes this lot he's the real deal, made no mistake. This is the best 2m novice field assembled this season. My belief is that he'll destroy them and go over to Cheltenham and do the same. (Forgive my slight smugness here but I REALLY hope so as I've backed him at 10s and in several doubles with Faugheen at 76/1 ) The 2m division could be about to have its new shining light if I'm right!
Couldn't back UDS at 4/5 but then neither could I back any of the others at their current prices. I don't like Gilbamboa. Clarcam is better judged on his first run against Vautour than his second. Apache is a middle distance horse. I'm looking at this race and thinking it's not as great as it's being cracked up to be. The Arkle has been won by some great horses in recent times and it's clear that, over fences, one horse can just be a lot better than the competition. UDS may be that horse. However, because he backed out of the big races last year, I haven't ever really warmed to him.
Who knows Bob how good they are or aren't at this stage though? They haven't done much wrong yet. That's the beauty of it for me. Pure potential, and at last seeing what Un de Sceaux is all about in a top level race. Maybe he'll be found wanting or his jumping mightn't be up to it. Who knows? BUT if he can blow this lot away on the steel then he could just be a machine and we're looking at the shortest priced Arkle favourite since Sprinter Sacre! And let's be honest here too, the 2m division looks like a bad joke at the minute so we could really do with something special
Broken record syndrome but I hope UDS gets absolutely stuffed out of sight. Maybe then the fat cat banker may just persuade Willie and Ruby to run the real deal in the right race. Totally selfish but my tickets have just come through for Tuesday and I want to see Vautour in the Arkle.
Ruby had a very big smile on the morning line last Saturday when he said he wouldn't swap UDS for any horse around.
Can see another weekend shorty getting 'duffed up' here and it's GILGAMBOA to win in my opinion. Couldn't back a novice at 4/5 in it's first Grade 1 race with free money - plenty will though
Nah STH. Law of averages says you can't be that lucky and have that many 'real deals' in one stable at the same time. I read an interesting blog reviewing last year's festival. The author noted that though not a trends follower the Cheltenham festival throws up a number of stats that should be ignored at your peril. Amongst those he highlighted were the very poor record of front runners in the Arkle. UDS fans take note.
Surprised you've had so much antepost action on UDS Beefy given your massive insistence of Vautour winning the Arkle since last March? UDS has the speed to put this field to bed, as I'm not convinced Gilgamboa or Clarcam are real speed 2 milers. To be fair, the way UDS goes about racing not many will go the speed with him. Really glad to see him in Grade 1 company though and will be even more interested to see him around Cheltenham. Apache Stronghold doesn't go- he waits for a 2m 5f Grade 2 where he will clash with Valseur Lido
I posted the below on 7 October on the antepost thread. There was only one race UDS could go and the vibes regarding Vautour were always mentioning 'he'd have no problem stepping'. Thankfully I backed both in tasty doubles with Faugheen at the nice prices so all good assuming a Mullins Day 1 double
It's the same on here (and the 'old' 606) every year Toppy - some have got whole fields covered ante post at fancy prices come March
Lol FO Drever I hasn't even mentioned the 209/1 treble on Faugheen, UDS, and Vautour yet either However the other side of the coin I'll happily list my losing anteposts too if u want, but it'll take a while unfortunately lol
LOL Beefy - nah bud. I have a bit of a hate/hate relationship with ante post. Although I love the animal, two words... HURRICANE FLY!! Put a fortune on only for it to be pulled a month or so before the 2010 Festival. Didn't have a bean on ante post when it won in 2011. Backed it to the hilt ante post when Rock On Ruby won in 2012 and again didn't touch it ante post in 2013 when it won!! FML!! Won a fair bit back on the years it did win but certainly didn't get back what I had flushed away. So no, I ain't a big fan of ante post
Nice one. Looking forward to seeing how he gets on this weekend, should give us some nice pointers. Glad they sidestepped the Irish Arkle with Apache- think he will make a lovely staying chaser and the JLT will be a nice race for him as a novice.
Sorry Chan but this stat is one I've seen too and it holds little water when you think about it for there will only be 1 frontrunner in the field! Therefore the law of averages are strongly in the favor of the rest of the field against the 1 front runner.
