So 2 weeks ago posters were saying that this thread should be on the Ipswich board basically waving the white flag on this season. After a fantastic win away at high flying Bournemouth with Alex Neil in charge for the last 20 minutes a tidal wave of hope and positivity has seemingly washed away all the negative thoughts of our posters. I said we could do it and still hope we can but has anyone that voted NO to the op changed their mind ? Yes top spot would be a massive task but who thinks we can do it now?. Or who originally tipped us to win the division but now sitting in 7th think we have too much to do?. Otherwise known as a BUMP
I still don't think we will win the league (or even get automatic - I thought we'd finish 9th under Adams by the way) but the reason most people are more confident is because our non-manager has been replaced with someone who inspires confidence and has proven, albeit briefly, that he can manage. There's no great revelation! One change, that's all it took. The players are good enough but that dreadful run may catch up with us. Not many teams win the league when they win one in twelve.
I voted no at the start and it's still a no from me. But with the managerial change I have gone from a flat no, to a no with a hint of optimism. I now think we will make the playoffs rather than might. But it's early days so who knows? Bah!
I can't believe some people think we have no chance of winning the title, or even finishing in the top two. We are definitely capable and there is more than enough time left this season for both of those things to happen, absolutely. 21 games left leaves an enormous lot of points to play for, ok we'd need to lose no more than two/three more games to do it, but we can do that if you ask me, especially as we've played all the top teams away already. Derby, Boro, Ipswich and Brentford all have to come to Carrow Road, and the quality and depth of our squad was always going to come into play towards the business end of the season so I have no doubts at all that winning the title is definitely within the realms of possibility. You can still get 12/1 with Paddy Power, which I personally think is incredible each-way value. We were 18/1 Saturday morning which I thought unbelievable value and I just hope the bookies will be regretting their generosity come May because I will be seriously quids in if so
If there was at least one standout team dominating the top spot this season I'd be satisfied with a playoff or nearly ran position now, but simply put, not one team has stamped their authority on the auto spots. No one seems to be "doing a Leicester" this season. We've had several teams (including us) dabble with it before dropping back. Whilst no other teams appear ready to seriously break free from the pack, the auto spots are there for the taking.
On Saturday morning, the likelihood was that we would be some 14 points off the top spot, come 5 0'clock and we have almost halved the lead to 8 points, an amazing turnaround on one day. To win the league in my view is unlikely because it only takes one team to hold good form to thwart us but to gain automatic means that two teams have to sustain that level and the beauty is that we have to play Derby, Ipswich, Middlesbrough, Brentford and Wolves all at home. Play-offs look very much on now as I had hoped pre-season but as Hairy says above, with nobody doing a Leicester then a good run for us from here means that it is still pretty much in our own hands. I reckon another 46 points from the remaining 19 games should do it - hard but not impossible with some room for the odd loss or draw along the way.
There's 21 games left, so we have a bonus 2 to get those 46 points 2.19 points per game. Hmm.,,with a run of good home form (please!) it could be do-able. So hard to string results together in this league though.
This chart is four years old (http://www.footballforums.net/showthread.php/271690-Championship-Run-in-Ladder) but I doubt it's all that wrong on averages: 106....Highest Champions Points Total ... 92...Highest 2nd Place Points Total (i.e. not champions) ... 88...Average Needed For Champions 87...Highest 3rd Place Points Total (i.e. not auto promoted) ... 82...Average Needed For Promotion 81....Lowest Champions Points Total ... 79....Lowest Automatic Promotion Total ... 75...Highest 7th Place Points Total (i.e. not making play-offs) ... 72....Average Needed For Play-Offs ... 70....Lowest Play-Off Position Total On the basis that this is a low scoring Championship season (look at League One and Two right now, and historically where the Champ has been after 25 matches), I think we can assume it's unlikely to be much higher than average. So I don't have any doubt that 86 points would be autos, and quite probably champions. I would target 82 points for automatic promotion at this stage. But to go for 86 points we would need: 15 wins, 1 draw and 5 losses 14 wins, 4 draws and 2 losses 13 wins, 7 draws and 1 loss We'll almost certainly draw more than once, so I think we basically have to target fewer than 2 losses. For the rest of the season. Doable with our squad, but a big ask.
IF (a small word with a big meaning), we narrow the gap at the top by another 2 or even 3 points on Saturday, would an auto spot really be out of the question ? Surely 5 or 6 points to make up with 20 games to go wouldn't be beyond our capabilities ? On the other hand, IF we draw or lose and the gap widens then 2nd spot would seem a long way off Bugger, I can't be doing with this it's bad enough at the end of the season trying to work out the 'ifs' and 'buts' with only half a dozen games to go !
The difficulty lies in trying to overtake 5 teams to get to a 2nd place finish. We did it under Lambert, and we're only 3 points behind where his team was at this stage, so it is possible, but the margins are very tight. The key is getting a run going so we can close the gap further and our players begin to believe it's possible. We need wins though, not draws or losses, which would see us losing ground. Cardiff will be the next test with Neil fully in charge. If he's as good as we hope he is and the players respond to him and cut out the unforced errors it is just possible. Lose on Saturday though and it will suddenly become much more difficult. That pressure will be there for every game from now on.
I'm trying to say that it is fecking pointless pontificating about various permutations- glad to see Welly grasped the irony
While I was amused by your response, Longsight, I think most people grasp your point about points, it's more a discussion about 'how' it might happen that's being discussed here. Rob's analysis of the points that could be required at least gives us a framework of what might be required. Last year it was what was required for survival, this year it's about the chance of promotion. Chance means uncertainty. Naturally people want some insight into that 'chance'.
The long and the short of it is that some people don't feel "that it is fecking pointless pontificating about various permutations". If you do, then perhaps this isn't for you.
