My January Assessment

So, it's New Year's Eve and we'll soon have the chance to refine our squad even further. We've played everyone once and are doing pretty well, but in the last two months it's become pretty clear that a few changes are needed to refresh and bolster our squad.

At the start of the season, I was a huge advocate for desperately needing full back cover as our main priority. Up until December, that remained my thinking. Then, Montero got injured...

Since September, personally, I've seen how poor Dyer and Routledge have been. Their confidence seemingly sapped away while watching the strength, power and finesse of new-boy Jefferson Montero's work. It's clear to me that they know they no longer have the pace and power in their legs to do what he's doing. Well, if they can't, unfortunately they're no good to us. It pains me to say it, as they've been excellent servants to the club. But part of Swansea's identity is to have fast, tricky wingers who take on full backs. Remember the days when our wingers got full backs booked and sent off regularly? When opposition full backs had to be subbed because they were being roasted? Montero does that, Dyer and Routledge did, but don't anymore. When you take into account the crossing ability of Dyer and Routledge too, you have to question their place in the first team. Can't cross, can't dribble, can't go past a full back, mishit the majority of shots...

Since seeing young Modou Barrow terrorise Arsenal off the bench and also play well against City, he's tailor-made to fill this hole temporarily, however, with Montero out injured for month, another winger must be top of our list. Without attacking wingers, teams will find it much too easy to defend against us. Teams need to fear our pace, confidence and trickery down the flanks again. Personally, I'd say thank you and sell Dyer and/or Routledge to someone. They'll be bought on past merits and they won't come back to bite us - a) they don't fit anyone else's system and b) their legs have gone.

Second up, Shelvey. He's got to go this January, right? He just doesn't fit our play. I've consistently asked for him to be played further up the pitch where he looks good, but we don't do it. If he's on the books as a defensive midfielder, get him out of here. Monk has to be strong on this one. And if Monk isn't, then Huw has to be. Someone has to get the message through that Shelvey is an utter liability playing alongside either Ki or Leon. Ki and Leon are the perfect fit. They both understand their responsibilities and have the athletic ability to back it up. Shelvey neither understands nor is fit enough, mentally or physically, to play as a deep-lying midfielder.

So what do we do? Get rid of Shelvey to anyone, and I mean anyone, who wants him. Then use the money to get Carroll. Along with Grimes (if we sign him), we should have all the bodies we need in that position to not only play games, but also mentor Carroll and Grimes, in particular. However, Shelvey's Swansea career can still be salvaged - if we tell Shelvey that he's second-fiddle behind Gylfi, he has to accept that. Only then am I happy to keep him.

Thirdly, comes the full backs. It's clear that Taylor and Rangel need real replacements as soon as possible. You could see the difference that Rangel made when he came on second half, we had a lot more thrust going forward, but he's getting on and needs a proper replacement. I like Jazz, but don't see the confidence in him to become a top player. Taylor is adequate for our requirements, but without pressure for his place will never push on to become better - he picks up too many stupid bookings to not have decent cover behind him too. A left back and a right back, both around 22-25 year old, with plenty of first team experience in a passing side, at the very least Championship level. They have to be good enough to replace Rangel and Taylor, as much as Neil won't like that, it's not really our problem. He'll have to do the extra hours in the gym/on the training field to keep his place.

And finally, is anyone else seeing the deterioration of Ashley Williams? He's still a fierce tackler and wins lots of aerial duals against bigger guys, but his ball playing is going backwards. He's wasting time on the ball again, as he did when he first joined us, and it was his delayed backpass to Fabianski that led to Lallana's freak goal. Along with Fabianski, Williams had a chance to put his foot through it first time. N.B. It should also be noted that Taylor also played backwards to Williams, but probably from Shelvey not wanting/showing for the ball in midfield. A classic domino effect.

Back onto Ash, I'm starting to see more and more flaws which had become hard to spot before. He's slicing clearances more, he's missing the ball more, he's giving away more free kicks, he's never been able to header, he struggling to jump high these days. I still rate him, but I think it's time for a different centre back pairing to be given a chance. You saw how composed Fernandez was at Anfield, not just making finely-timed standing and sliding tackles on Liverpool's forwards, but winning the ball back while doing so. I'd love to see Fernandez and Bartley be given a chance together. Two towering centre backs, both proven they are good enough at Premier League level for us, both can put in a tackle, both brought up with footballing, rather than hoofball, philosophies, and both can header accurately in both boxes. It's hard to say, but I'd give that armband to Leon/Ki (always Leon if he's on the pitch) and give Ash a spell on the bench.

So, if you've made it this far, I'll reward you with a summary in order of priority:

1. One, maybe two, wingers - IN. If we can find clubs for Dyer and Routledge, send them both out.
2. Shelvey - OUT. Carroll and Grimes - IN. That's if he doesn't want to sit on the bench behind Gylfi. Keep Shelvey, if he's ok with that and continue with Carroll's loan until the Summer.
3. One right back and one left back - IN.
4. Give Ashley Williams a spell on the bench. Fernandez and Bartley given a chance to mould a partnership. Ki/Leon given the band depending on who's playing.

These are big time decisions. They've been coming though, as the batch of Swansea players for the last 5-6 years were always going to come to an end, lose form, become found out, etc. We've talked about transition in Swansea before, but we are coming to a point where true transition will occur. Not just a manager adding some new faces, but I'm talking about the main protagonists. Williams, Dyer, Routledge, Leon and Rangel are all much older now and the time is coming to get the young, hungry, and, most importantly, capable in. The spine of Swansea will change and that's not necessarily a bad thing. People were unsure about Montero when he came in and didn't want him played ahead of Dyer or Routledge, now he's indispensable!

The question I have is, will Monk be big enough to make decisions like this? Can he let go of his friendship and camaraderie with his old pals to put them on the bench or, if necessary, the transfer market? I'm not sure he can.

 

Need all three in my book.

 

Agree with Never but atm I'd say we desperately need another Montero.

 

As for Ash BK, I think this could be his last season as a guaranteed starter. Fernandez is our best defender, and we have two very good youngsters in Amat and Bartley who will be challenging with Ash next season to start.

 

Too big a shopping list for January. We'd get slaughtered on value / price. These are summer acquisitions.

On the short term - January - we need cover and I don't think we can buy and integrate a new player in time to make a difference. It's time for Carroll, Fulton, Jazz, Barrow and maybe one or two others from the U21 to ascert themselves.

The only player that is a definite move for me is Shelvey out - this is the time of year when clubs will pay stupid money out of desperation and Shelvey is just the item for that sale. If we can do that and get Spurs to move on Carroll then that is the deal I would make.

 

I agree and certainly hope this is the case! Ash has been a formidable player for us and a great ambassador for Swansea, he's stuck by us when he could've moved on. However, we've got some good young CBs in our squad now, and Ash was in their position back in League One, waiting for his run in the first team. It's time for Swansea to mould a new CB partnership that will last for the next 5-6 years. I'm not convinced whether Monk will be ruthless enough to make these kinds of changes to his 'mates' though.

 

Very good read, I still am a fan of Taylor, and find many of his passing choices are his only option either by the winger not offering a pass, such as Routs at Anfield going awol on the wing, Shelvey not making moves in the middle to create some space, even Leon has been guilty of that at times, or Ash giving the ball to Taylor when there are players too near him, I hope I am not the only one who notices Ash puts Taylor under pressure at times with his passing. I am not saying that is the reason all the time, but I find at times he is being given a bit of a raw deal. I do think competition will help, but I honestly felt he was our best player against Liverpool. Was always trying to get forward, always trying to make something happen, but was always let down by those around him by basically watching rather than trying to offer the pass. Plus he is by far one of the best crossers we have right now. Only bettered by Montero in my book out wide. Because Rangel and Dyer on the other side cannot cross.

I agree that we need a new winger, Routs and Dyer are not at the races, I don't know what has gotten into Dyer, he seems to be trying to be like Routs rather than his old self which was about running. He can still do it, as could be seen once or twice at Anfield, but he seemed more interested in trying to take on his opposite number by trickery, which is not his strong point.

In regards to Shelvey, I have always hoped that he would come good, you can always see the glimpse of the player he could be, but I don't think the DM role is for him. But given time, who knows. Look at Ki, when ML played him as a DM he was a liability, couldn't tackle, couldn't run, couldn't position himself, but now look at him. That took a season under ML and a season under GP to get to where he is now. Maybe Shelvey will go the same way, he does have age on his side, and he needs someone to grab him by the scruff of the neck and slap the immaturity out of him. I personally would keep him. Drop him, make him fight for his place, see if he can up his game. Personally I would like us to buy Caroll, play him with Ki as our 1st choice DM's. As much as I love Leon, he is not the player he was, and he was found wanting along with Shelvey many times against Liverpool.

Also agree with everything you said about Ash, but in regards to his replacement, I have always preferred Amat over him and Bartley. Still think Bartley is a good player, but Amat edges it for me.

 

We missed Montero big time on Monday, oh for another one like him. Imagine him and another blessed with pace and actually attacking defenders. Happy days!!!

 

To me Dyer was doing fine till Monk started benching him , not sure why after his good start . Taylor is doing fine and Williams is doing fine.If we keep who we have then a central midfielder similar to Ki and a rightback.

 

That's where we struggled Monday. There was no pace on the wing. It showed just how good and important Montero is for us. Defenders are so scared of his pace it opens up room elsewhere. Unfortunately, Mr Blobby would have been a better attacking threat on the wing than the paceless duo on Monday.

 

Oh, if only we were able to roof, what a midfield we would have

 

Agree. As it stands, I see Bartley a more similar CB to Fernandez. That is why I would go for Amat like Swanselona. For me he's a bit better on the ball and has a little more pace. Atm our CB position is probably our strongest part of the squad and I'd be happy with any combination of the 4 playing atm.

 

^^^^This is spot on, Dyer will come good again, we should never have dropped him for Routledge when he was scoring for fun, as for Taylor he's doing fine, but he has to cope with Williams lazy passing, and Routledge disappearing, not Taylors fault in my view, by the way it was Williams crap back pass that put Fab under pressure for his gaff!...............





We just need a winger in my view for Routledge.

 

January business already done -
‘We have done a lot of our January work already,’ Jenkins said. ‘We have signed Nelson Oliveira and we are signing Matt Grimes and that covers our main priorities. Whatever else happens, happens.’

 

Personally, I think Garry Monk is capable of being ruthless - in his own way at the right time. I think he has the qualities to go a long way as a manager (some of you, I know, have a completely opposite view, but hey-ho). Here is a man on a mission.

I don't agree that Williams needs benching/selling or whatever. He will remain the captain and a stalwart at the back for a couple more seasons. Leon, Rangel and Routledge are getting on and will need replacing soon. This summer could be an interesting period.

As for Jonjo, his performances have become increasingly erratic and I agree with you that DM is not for him and with Gylfi outstanding at AM, Jonjo will be struggling to get a look-in for the rest of the season, though I don't see him being sold in January.

So here we are half way through the season with 28 points and 9th place (if we'd lost 3-1 instead of 4-1 at Anfield, we'd still be 8th). And god knows how many points we feel have been 'thrown away' during those 19 games. All-in-all, an excellent effort considering some on here were convinced Monk wasn't capable of a 40-point season. (Yes, we haven't got there yet etc etc).

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/football/30620617

According to the above, we have gained 49 points in the calendar year of 2014 - again, a pleasing indication of the way things are heading. Barring a collapse of catastrophic proportions, we should reach reach 40 points by the first half of April, leaving the last 6 or 7 games to push on over the 50-point barrier.

I am fearful of a bad January without Bony, Ki and Montero. The plus side is that after tomorrow's game at QPR, we only have 2 more PL games in January and both of them are at home, albeit West Ham and Chelsea which are obviously quite tough. I've got a sinking feeling about the FA Cup - not sure why, but we could be victims of a giant-killing on Saturday.

Looking at the wider PL picture, the 'cream' is slowly rising to the top after an indifferent start by many of them. I see Southampton and West Ham drifting slowly downwards and being overtaken by Tottenham, Liverpool, Arsenal .... and maybe even Everton when/if their Europa League exploits come to an end. I wouldn't put a lot of money on the 'big 7' not being in the top 7 spots by the end of the season.

I still think our natural position is somewhere between 8th and 11th - which, let's face it, is still a fantastic achievement for a club of Swansea's size which has punched above its weight since arriving in the PL.

Chelsea or Man City should be champions with Leicester, Hull and Burnley my tips to go down.

Let's look forward (with fingers crossed) to a prosperous 2015.

 

Hopefully the board ain't lost its Midas touch and can get one that can cross the ball well in, and sort the strength in depth out in the summer.

 

So at most Aswan, Bony and Ki will only miss two league games? That makes me feel a heck of a lot better

 

Good post aswan, can't fault your reasoning and I see us finishing 7th.........................

 

It obviously depends on how far Ivory Coast get in the competition. The group games are played between 17th & 28th January inc. Ivory Coast are in with Guinea, Mali & Cameroon.

Assuming they get through the group phase, the quarter-finals are on 31st Jan & 1st Feb. The semis are on 4th & 5th Feb. The 3rd/4th place play-off is on Feb 7th and the final is on Feb 8th.

We are away at Southampton on Sunday 1st Feb and home to Sunderland on Saturday 7th Feb. We then have a midweek game at West Brom on Wednesday 11th Feb which I guess he is unlikely to play in if Ivory Coast reach the final.

If Ivory Coast lose in the quarter-finals he would miss 3 Premier League games.

....or he could break a leg and miss the rest of the season

 

Or we can pray they get ko'd in the group stages