I dont know, I think if you are doing the right thing for the horse then you have to say its a bit soon after the International, but maybe they would have went for it again if Faugheen wasnt there. Only they will know. They havent dodged anyone before, they went for it last year to take on My Tent in a race he was made for so I doubt Faugheens presence is the only reason he isnt running, it wasnt in the plan last year and it wasnt in the plan this year, maybe they are sticking to it this time. Faugheen could have went to Haydock to take him on instead of the easier option at Ascot but its understandable. The New One has nothing to prove at the minute, Faugheen gets his first serious test in this division and it will be interesting to see, I think Purple Bay is the danger. And I could be wrong but I think if it was The New One taking on that field you would be saying the same thing, anything less than a comfortable win and you can forget Cheltenham.
Yeah I know what you're saying. I think that mickey mouse race at Haydock probably cost the burn up but I stick with belief TNO would a been in it without Faugheen and I know plenty feel the same. But its understandable having had 3 runs already. In fairness the fact Mullins is throwing Faugheen in here round a speed track for a horse who stays so well, is a fair statement as they weren't shirking anyone at all in declaring him weeks ago. Kind of disproves the theory he'd have had softy, softy runs before Cheltenham... Oh yes, Faugheen has to win well and he will. He's answered every question asked of him with plenty to spare. His cruising speed is ridiculous and if he can burn these lads off easily it'd be a fair statement of that speed. Just feel TNO will get caught out 2 out if Faugheen moves through the gears...Even in your view of him he doesn't quicken instantly, even Nige boy said after Haydock that he doesn't quicken straight away! Just feel nothing gets Faugheen out of that big cruise he has, TNO will run on late in the day in the CH (did last yr) no doubt but I suspect he'll be hung out to dry 2 out as he won't go with the beast as Ruby gives him a squeeze! Just IMO mate! BTW can you please stop harping on about My Tent like he's a wonderhorse Boris, he got beat by a stayer in the Supremes, Jezki put him in his place last March and was hammered in a handicap last time out FFS!! Not the 'class' horse you repeatedly make him out to be, just because he has both verdicts over TNO! PB not a bad shout for a place as I think he'd have dealt with Irving when he fell fto. People lazily assumed Irving would win by PB put decent daylight between him and the rest from the last. Cue Card for the King George though, really
Merry Christmas for tomorrow chaps I hate backing a trainer's so-called second string - to me it smacks of arrogance in thinking that you know better than the trainer! However, I am plumping for Al Ferof in the KG, I don't think there can be much between them and AF seems to be the one more likely to appreciate a better surface. Purple Bay is one of my cliff horses, so clearly I'll be keeping fingers crossed for him in the Christmas Hurdle, although logic says Faugheen by a country mile! I won't be online on the 26th but as always - good luck all
I think I agree Beefy, and the surprising thing is that I think the New One would have had a much better chance of beating Faugheen tomorrow than at Cheltenham. I think they have missed an opportunity. I am just disappointed that we have no Christmas Hurdle this year as it's usually a good race which offers some pointers for the champion. Regarding the big one I had been for Silviniaco Conti all week and now am wondering whether to chance on Menorah. I am also in a quandary as to risk a bet on River Mague as I have always followed this horse believing he has a touch of class, However, he keeps letting me down. Maybe I should stick to the all weather.....
Right, I am officially calling an end to all this Faugheen bollocks. He gets beat at Kempton. End of fecking story. He hasn't faced a SINGLE grade 1 horse in his entire ****ing career. Irving and Sign Of A Victory beat plodders last time out? Yeah? Then what did Faugheen beat? Blue Fashion. WOW!! Lac Fontana? **** what? How far behind Rock On Ruby last time??? Oh but hang on, here's a straw to clutch at!!!!! Faugheen beat Hint Of Mint 13 lengths, whereas The New One only beat him 2!!!! That's it then. ****ing Champion Hurdle done and dusted The only reason Faugheen is still running over hurdles is because they know he will never jump a ****ing fence. A year ago he was running in a 3-mile novice hurdle on heavy ground FFS. Look at the form of his most "impressive" victory to date at Punchestown - Valseur Lido gone chasing, not good enough. Sgt Reckless gone chasing, not good enough. 2/1 fav for the Champion Hurdle is the biggest load of bollocks I have ever heard. Come Friday evening he is 4 times the price. In the words of Flavor Flav - "Don't Believe The Hype".
Ive been against Cue Card most of his career, short price, bad jockey, potential to jump poorly. Ive already put Conti up as a class bet at 8/1 but at the prices last week, Cue Card was the bet at 10/1 and I dont discriminate when it comes to value. I wouldnt be putting much weight in the ground argument against Conti, hes no mudlark in my book and I still think he is the one to beat although softer ground would have helped him in making it more of a stamina test against this field. My opinion is Cue Card is the only horse in the race who has the class to beat him, the others are a step down and I seen enough at Haydock to believe Cue Card will be back to his best here. He also happened to be well overpriced in my opinion which made him a must bet, ill settle for either.
Woahhh... Oddy you've 'outBorised' Boris with that rant On the strong German stuff perhaps Odders?! Boris if CC returns to form you might have a chance but I think the markets have it right with him as you're taking a big leap of faith his ability is intact after injury and the jury's out on that one...Afterall he was meant to be fit as a butchers dog in that Haldon GC he was 4th in and I wouldn't wipe my arse with the form of that race now. Its a tight race. If the ground was soft or heavy I'd fancy Silvi but on the likely ground and the prices I'm happy to leave him.
I absolutely love it when we're on the fence. It's great to have differing opinions on this and I've thought closely about it. For Cheltenham, at least we can be clear that Faugheen gets up the hill. He surprised me in last years Neptune because he devoured the hill and I didn't expect that. He has only run once at 2m, and although he won very well, he didn't really beat the classiest bunch of hurdlers and actually beat them the same level as Vautour. His engine is so big that really he should be growing towards staying chases over a couple of years and totally and utterly breaking fields apart with his high crusing speed. That is where his skills would truly be shown. With that in mind, I can't be having him on quick winter ground, on the flattest track in the country, making mistakes at speed and getting away with it- at least usually. We don't yet know if Sign Of A Victory and Irving are up to this level but they both have loads of pace and therefore if Faugheen does have any slight chinks in this rapidfire 2m contest on better ground, then he might get stuck in a battle. It will be very revealing and should advertise his true 2m credentials. Whatever happens tomorrow though, Cheltenham will suit Faugheen better, so whatever side of the fence you sit on, don't ever forget that fact.
Haldon Gold Cup irrelevant, couldnt have him for it in a million years anyway and couldnt have him last time as I knew he still wouldnt be 100%. The market will have it right once he is in to second fav where he should be at about 9/2.
Before I forget - Une Artiste in the Pertemps Qualifier at Wincanton (1.40). As Sir Barney would put it, there are likely to be more plots than an Agatha Christie novel in this one but surely the sport's guiding light, Mr Henderson, is playing with a straight bat.
Hard race to bet in that Odds as the pipe horse is the one that Tom Scudamore has gone to ride and jumps in the helicopter immediately after it crosses the line to fly to the Kempton Christmas meeting. The pipe horse is a crazy 7-4 for a race of that quality so unbackable, but I can't bring myself to back against a horse that clearly so much is expected of.
Certainly a few treats for tomorrows racing i cant wait! 12.50 Kempton - Azral Made a mistake at last on debut and then hung left, otherwise should have won. The winner that day has gone on to win easy under a penalty. The form with West Wizard doesnt look bad at all considering Sgt Reckless who beat him previously has produced strong form since and the ease of which he beat West Wizard was very impressive. 1.25 Kempton - Knock House Won easy as you like on chase debut and that race has produced a few winners since, Top Totti beat a double winner and also Grand Vision and Broadway Buffalo won easy off 129. 2.00 Kempton - Saphir Du Rheu/Creepy EW Saphir Du Rheu was jumping well before unseating on chase debut, then set things right next time out jumping fluently and winning 11 lengths eased down. Deputy Dan was back in 4th and is a very useful yard stick. Will be able to compare form with Kings Palace through Sausalito Sunrise after this race and expect them both to top the RSA market. Creepy probably didnt meet much on chase debut but jumped well and won easily, that was on good ground. Didnt jump well at all at Cheltenham on soft next time out and fell when still going well enough in a race Kings Palace won. Will need to jump better but looks overpriced here. 2.35 Kempton - Purple Bay/Sgt Reckless No strong opinion on this race, backing Purple Bay after reading Boris' thoughts on the race. Faugheen has the class but like many have said Kempton may not play to his strengths and he has only run over hurdles at 2m once and will need to be foot perfect here. Irving and Purple Bay are closely matched based on Wincanton - i believe Purple Bay would have won regardless if Irving stayed on his feet, yet Irving is 9/2 compared to Purple Bay being 18/1. Sgt Reckless is a horse i love, his run in the Supreme was strange he was a mile back in last badly outpaced 2 out yet was a fast finishing 4th, gets his preferred ground here and im willing to give him a chance at 33/1. 3.10 Kempton - Dynaste Ran in this last year also but pulled a muscle and finished eased down. Came back better than ever and won the Ryanair at the festival and was sent off favourite for the Betfred Bowl but was just outstayed by Silvi Conti. The betfair chase turned into a bit of a slog and didnt get near the front 2. Back to 3 miles at Kempton will be more suited and i expect his price to be a lot shorter tomorrow. 2.05 Limerick - Gilgamboa Was running a good race in the Supreme travelling well until a bad mistake 2 out completely ruined any chance he had. Was always going to make a better chaser over further and he jumped really well and won a lot easier than winning margin showed.
I have just been sitting here after a nice Christmas dinner and decided that I would go through the card tomorrow at Kempton. I don't mean peruse the runners and consider there merits, oh no - I mean win every damn race one after the other. Here we go 12.50 Jollyallen 9-4 1.25 Knock House 6-1 2.00 Saphir Du Rihr 11-10 2.35 Faugheen 4-7 3.10 Siliniaco Conti 9-4 3.45 Theinveil 8-1 Four folds - Five Folds and an EW acca Good luck all
My picks for Boxing Day ( does that mean fisticuffs with my Mrs - or many un-opened parcels ) Race 1 DUSKY lARK - like the price - muchos denaro if it come in Race 2 GENER9OUS RANSOM - has tried so hard to get past the post first Race 3 VIRAK - Nicholls in this one ain't daft Race 4 FAUGHEEN - Don't blame me backing a horse that has never lost when it counts Race 5 CUE CARD - well why not - if it does not do it this time it will totally faid away
The Pipe horse does look like the proverbial good thing Blue but, like yourself, think the price is crazy. E/W on Une Artiste at 16s will do for me
Not interested in the King George from a betting perspective. Don't want to back Faugheen at 4/9 but my head did explode from Oddy's bollocks about Valseur Lido! Do want to back Thunder Zone e/w @9/1 against Kalkir. Aficionado will probably double up in the last at Market Rasen for those of you with memories.
