Here's an example of how wildly out bookies odds are in the late stages: Turkey 0 - 3 Brazil 90 minutes played, in time added on Turkey 70-1 to win Should be 7000-1
7000/1 is a 0.014283673% chance of winning, 70/1 is 1.408450704% chance of winning. I told you already that we add 8% margin onto odds, in this case 1.4% has been added on to a 7000/1 to make it 70/1 - the other 6.6% margin will be added on to the other 2 selections. Because one selection is a stupidly bad price does not mean that the other selection is a good price.
Thanks for the explanation but what's the point offering such poor odds that no one would ever take them and yet rooting around in all the obscure games I'm finding very generous odds with a 261%+ return?
Not seeing good odds tonight btw, expect Mike fixed bet123's odds and the others have caught on. Bangor to equalise at Connah's Quay is beginning to look interesting.
Rep of Ireland 2.300 Scotland v Rep of Ireland 14/11/2014 Alternative Asian Handicap To Run Over 1.0,1.5 2.050 Greece v Faroe Islands 14/11/2014 1st Half Goal Line To Run Portugal -1.5 1.550 Portugal v Armenia 14/11/2014 Alternative Asian Handicap To Run Bet Type: Trebles
Much better system is the no lose bets, but they don't happen very often. The last one was last week Lech Poznan v Podbeskidzie Bielsko-Bial The both teams to score market had Corals yes @ 2/1 and Paddy Power went no @ 11/10. 23% profit. Only other one recently was this one http://www.not606.com/showthread.php/279890-Free-money
Do you want a genuine hole in In Play odds? A corner leads to another corner, within 1 minute, just over 12% of the time. When Bet365 price up under/over corners they use a standard Poisson distribution assuming that corners are discrete events, which they are not since one corner can lead to another one - there is a small relation there. Wait until the 80th minute of a match, let's say there's 10 corners so far, at that stage the betting will be flip to over/under 10.5 corners (it will be about 1.3 the overs in about 82 mins), as soon as there is a corner they will immediately change the line to over/under 11.5 corners, back the overs instantly before the corner is taken and you will get a 12.5% chance of another corner happening straight away - which beats the 8% margin they add to the over/under line. It's a genuine hole - I gave up doing it because it was too much bloody effort waiting until the 80th minute of each game to nick a couple of percent.
That does sound way too much trouble, try my system with its gauranteed 261% returns, yesterdays action: 13 Nov 14 / 21:37 Stake Defensores Unidos v FC Midland – FC Midland @ 12/1 - £0.20 O/5118760/0000594/F 13 Nov 14 / 21:22 Bet Winnings Bristol Academy Women v Barcelona Women – Draw @ 7/1 + £1.60 O/5118760/0000593/F 13 Nov 14 / 20:54 Stake Bristol Academy Women v Barcelona Women – Draw @ 7/1 - £0.20 O/5118760/0000593/F 13 Nov 14 / 19:52 Stake CD San Simon v Universitario – CD San Simon @ 7/1 - £0.20 O/5118760/0000592/F 13 Nov 14 / 19:40 Stake Hjorring Women v FC Rosengard Women – Hjorring Women @ 25/1 - £0.10 O/5118760/0000591/F 13 Nov 14 / 09:52 Bet Winnings Pakistan v New Zealand - 1st Test Match – Pakistan @ 4/7 + £11.00 O/5118760/0000552/F I like the sound of Hjorring Women btw.
