Mafia 4

Here are the order of events, with the 4 options available to us in bold, mafia action in italics:

Order of events at night (if taken):

1. Lynch mob acts
2. Cop makes an arrest
3. Vigilante acts
4. Mafia assassin acts
5. Mafia recruiter acts
6. Investigations are reported
7. Freemason initiation occurs

So if we had 4 suspects, we could lynch the most likely one, arrest the 2nd most likely (no shootout), vigilante the 3rd most likely (shootout possible perhaps), and then investigate the 4th most likely. Only if we miss the assassin with the first 3 will someone gets killed, and if they are no4 we will know it's them.

 

With AFC, Danilo and Valley, I suggest putting 2 of the 3 up for a lynch and arresting the other.
That way we have 66% chance of avoiding an assassination? 33% assassin will be in prison = no assassination 33% he will be lynched = No assassination 33% he isnt arrested but wins the coin toss = An assassination

If he we lynch an innocent and there is no assassination, we knows its the assassin we have in jail and can lynch him tomorrow

 

Better knowing who is who and reading on than having a **** role though

 

That assumes that you, RHC and Swarbs aren't the assassin either.

 

It would speed the game up a bit at least! But I'm down with that idea, if only for the fireworks.

 

OK- Reposting What could happen if we all came out. (and someone faked being journalist) Trying to think of absolute worst case scenario...


DAY 3 (now)
Alive:
Cop (Known)
2 People Claiming To Be Journalist (Known)
Vigilante (Known)
2 People Claiming to Be Masons (Known)
3 People who claim to be regular townies. (1 hidden Mafia)


NIGHT 3 Worst Case:
If we kill off one of the three people claiming to be town (knowing one is Mafia) - worst case scenario... we kill a townie.
Worst case for us- they kill the cop/Vig or Mason... let's say Mason.


DAY 4
Alive
Cop
2 People Claiming to be Journalist
Vig
1 Mason
2 People Claiming to be townie (1 hidden Mafia)

NIGHT 4:
Worst Case- we kill another townie.
They Kill the other mason (or cop or vig... doesn't matter which... they're all known).


DAY 5
Alive:
Cop
Vig
2 Journalists claimants.
1 Person now known to be mafia.


NIGHT 5:
We Kill the person who should by now be known to be Mafia.
They win the shootout (50/50) and kill the Vigilante.


DAY 6
Cop, and 2 Journalist claimants.

- essentially at this point cop gets to pick which journalist to kill. By now should have figured out which journalist is lying.
(and remember- we'd only be at this scenario if we only got the Mafia last... worst case scenario remember). If we haven't figured out the journalist- still have 50/50 chance... IN AN ABSOLUTE WORST CASE SCENARIO.



- If we figure out the Mafia guy before Night 5. We'd be left with
Cop, 1+ Town, + 2 journalists left.

- Town would be known at this point... so we'd kill the journalists off.





I still think revealing roles would be the best strategy. Even in worst case scenario- it still works hugely in our favour

Only way it wouldn't work is if they get an extra recruit or there IS no journalist (it's Astro and hacker)... or we don't all vote as one unit.

 

Really? It seems pretty glacial to me.

 

I know I am not, Swarbs has been cleared by the investigator and RHC has posted about 3 messages in the whole game and hasn't been active, though that could be a ploy.

 

In the same article that called you the hacker!

 

I think if we are going to co-ordinate a 4-pronged attack, we might as well reveal the roles.

At the moment we have 2 innocents out of 9, and we know Nozzer isn't the assassin. So a 4 in 6 chance of finding the assassin (and that isn't absolute, if the assassin is going to be investigated he'll choose not to kill anyone). So let's call it a 3 in 6 chance.

If we reveal our roles, we'll have 4 known innocents (cop, vigilante and 2 original masons), and 4 unknowns (including the journo as I'm sure they'll claim to be a journo), and Nozzer who is not the assassin. So we have a 3 in 4 chance of catching the assassin, and we can investigate the 4th person anyway.

 

Touche.

Hadn't thought of that
Swarbs is guilty!!! (joke)

 

I'm all for that... although to be honest... I'd rather save any bullets for now so that I don't take out a mason or the journalist.

I've considered that. If paper tomorrow indicates that it wasn't hacked today then we know Bod is the Hacker- if paper says it isn't hacked tomorrow then that probably means STB is right and paper was hacked day 2... which would be odd choice of hack they made.

I'd be very very happy with an AFC/Danilo coin toss.

Wouldn't know for sure that he was an assassin if no assassination after being lynched... although would add to suspicion.

We don't know how many bullets assassin started with- (if indeed unlimited) - or if he gets refills.

No offence to RHC- but I tend to think if he had a role he would have given it away by now... I tend to think of him as no role now.

 

Could be why he's on so little...

 

Just occured to me that if the paper was hacked, then I can't be the hacker either, and ergo cannot be mafia. Obviously, if it wasn't hacked, then the possibility is still open (although I know I'm innocent).

 

If we do go for this, it might be useful for people to start voting....

 

We are forgetting about the masons.

We have 2 people (Milk and TB) who are known innocents, plus 2 others who know of each others innocence (hopefully 3 if they have recruited a third by now).
If we can get those 4 people to vote in a block, we have cracked it surely.

I still say Danilo, AFC and Valley, nominate two , arrest the third.

We know Nozzer aint the assassin, I know I aint, that leaves Swarbs, RHC and Nozzer (which means 2 of these 3 are the masons, unless its one of the three suspects above, which I doubt).

Do we have anything to lose by the masons revealing themselves now? It would eliminate them from the being nominated if they could back each other.
Of course the 2 mafia could do the same, but by this time I am assuming they have nominated a third member who can corroborate. It will mean we have 4 known innocents....will help a great deal.

At worst the assassin will take one out tonight, but we would still have 2 more masons and 3 known innocents. That assuming the assassin ISNT one of the 3 suspects above.

 

Good point!

If tomorrow's paper says it wasn't hacked today- then we know you're innocent. (Journalist, I wouldn't bother investigating Nozzer if today's paper was real). If you are the hacker... I don't give a fish. It's the assassin we need to kill.

 

I back this 100%. I will also add- it is very important that we don't lynch a town role now. The only way we will lose the game is if we lynch a town role (and they assassinate town roles) - if we accidentally lynch a non-role townie it doesn't hurt the town much in all honesty...

 

I don't know who is who

 

The problem with the freemasons is that they obviously would not want to recruit a mafia, so they would be better off waiting to convert until there is a known innocent. The only one available so far is Milk, and he claims not to have been converted (could be a bluff for some reason, but I don't see what it would achieve). That would tend to suggest that there's still only two of them.